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Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future

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Tropical Cyclone research and review 2021年第3期10卷 125-150页

作者： John A.Knaff charles r.sampson Matthew E.Kucas Christopher J.Slocum Michael J.Brennan Thomas Meissner Lucrezia ricciardulli Alexis Mouche Nicolas reul Mary Morris Galina Chirokova Philippe Caroff NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and research Fort CollinsCOUSA Naval research Laboratory MontereyCAUSA Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl HarborHawaiiUSA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center MiamiFLUSA remote Sensing Systems Santa RosaCAUSA Ifremer Univ.BrestCNRSIRDLaboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et SpatialeIUEM29280 BrestFrance NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory PasadenaCAUSA Cooperative Institute for research in the Atmosphere Fort CollinsCOUSA Tropical Cyclone/regional Specialized Meteorological Center Météo FranceRéunionFrance

This article provides a review of tropical cyclone(TC)surface wind estimation from an operational forecasting ***,we provide a summary of operational forecast center practices and historical ***,we discuss current and emerging objective estimates of TC surface winds,including algorithms,archive datasets,and individual algorithm strengths and weaknesses as applied to operational TC surface wind forecast *** review leads to recommendations about required surface coverage—an area covering at least 1100 km from center of TC at a 2-km resolution in the inner-core,and at a frequency of at least once every 6 *** is enough coverage to support a complete analysis of the TC surface wind field from center to the extent of the 34-kt(17 m s^(-1))winds at 6-h *** also suggest future designs of TC surface wind capabilities include funding to ensure near real-time data delivery to operators so that operational evaluation and use are feasible within proposed ***,we suggest that users of archived operational wind radii datasets contact operational organizations to ensure these datasets are appropriate for their needs as the datasets vary in quality through time and space,even from a single organisation.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Surface wind Satellite Best track Operations

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OPErATIONAL PErSPECTIVES ON TrOPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PArT 1:rECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

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Tropical Cyclone research and review 2019年第3期8卷 123-133页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade charles r.sampson John A.Knaff Thomas Birchard Stephen Barlow S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee richard Pasch Udai Shimada Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Naval research Laboratory(NrL) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and research USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan

This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in *** advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity *** intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some *** greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional *** models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational *** improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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OPErATIONAL PErSPECTIVES ON TrOPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PArT 2:FOrECASTS BY OPErATIONAL AGENCIES

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Tropical Cyclone research and review 2019年第4期8卷 226-239页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff S.D.Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee richard Pasch charles r.sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and research USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Meteo-France France Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Naval research Laboratory(NrL) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan Fiji Meteorological Service(FMS) Fiji

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting *** is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers

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Tropical Cyclone research and review 2023年第1期12卷 50-63页

作者： Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang John P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan Levi Cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma John A.Knaff John Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle Julian Heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma charles sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Indian Meteorological Department India NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane research Division USA Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA Naval research Laboratory USA Met Office UK China Meteorological Administration China Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,*** I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast *** part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational *** is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in *** particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before *** models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are *** needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Forecast error Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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