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Seismic fragility curves for structures using non-parametric representations

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2017年第2期11卷 169-186页

作者： Chu MAI Katerina KONAKLI bruno sudret Risk Safety & Uncertainty Quantification Institute of Structural Engineering ETH Ziirich Ziirich CH-8093 Switzerland

Fragility curves are commonly used in civil engineering to assess the vulnerability of structures to earthquakes. The probability of failure associated with a prescribed criterion （e.g., the maximal inter-storey drift of a building exceeding a certain threshold） is represented as a function of the intensity of the earthquake ground motion （e.g., peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration）. The classical approach relies on assuming a lognormal shape of the fragility curves; it is thus parametric. In this paper, we introduce two non-parametric approaches to establish the fragility curves without employing the above assumption, namely binned Monte Carlo simulation and kernel density estimation. As an illustration, we compute the fragility curves for a three-storey steel frame using a large number of synthetic ground motions. The curves obtained with the non-parametric approaches are compared with respective curves based on the lognormal assumption. A similar comparison is presented for a case when a limited number of recorded ground motions is available. It is found that the accuracy of the lognormal curves depends on the ground motion intensity measure, the failure criterion and most importantly, on the employed method for estimating the parameters of the lognormal shape.

关键词： earthquake engineering fragility curves lognormal assumption non-parametric approach kernel density estimation epistemic uncertainty

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Characterization of random stress fields obtained from polycrystalline aggregate calculations using multi-scale stochastic finite elements

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Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2015年第2期9卷 121-140页

作者： bruno sudret Hung Xuan DANG Marc BERVEILLER Asmahana ZEGHADI Thierry YALAMAS Risk Safety and Uncertainty Quantification ETH Zurich Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5 Zurich CH-8093 Switzerland Phimeca Engineering S.A. Centre d'affaires du Zenith 34 rue de Sarlieve Cournon F-63800 France EDF R&D Dept. of Materials and Mechanics of Components Site des Renardieres Moret-sur-Loing Cedex 77250 France

The spatial variability of stress fields resulting from polycrystalline aggregate calculations involving random grain geometry and crystal orientations is investigated. A periodogram-based method is proposed to identify the properties of homogeneous Gaussian random fields (power spectral density and related covariance structure). Based on a set of finite element polycrystalline aggregate calculations the properties of the maximal principal stress field are identified. Two cases are considered, using either a fixed or random grain geometry. The stability of the method w.r.t the number of samples and the load level (up to 3.5% macroscopic deformation) is investigated.

关键词： polycrystalline aggregates crystal plasticity random fields spatial variability correlation structure

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