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Longitudinal dependence of the forecast accuracy of the ionospheric total electron content in the equatorial zone

Geodesy and Geodynamics 2024年第5期15卷 528-541页

作者： artem kharakhashyan Olga Maltseva Institute for Physics Southern Federal University344090Russia

The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are *** also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC),which neural network methods have recently been widely ***,the results are mainly presented for a limited set of *** paper examines the longitudinal dependence of the TEC forecast accuracy in the equatorial *** this case,the methods are used that provided the best accuracy on three meridians:European(30°E),Southeastern(110°E)and American(75°W).Results for the stations considered are analyzed as a function of longitude using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Global Ionosphere Map(JPL GIM)for *** results are for 2 h ahead and 24 h ahead *** was found that in this case,based on the metric values,three groups of architectures can be *** first group included long short-term memory(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and temporal convolutional networks(TCN)models as a part of unidirectional deep learning models;the second group is based on the recurrent models from the first group,which were supplemented with a bidirectional algorithm,increasing the TEC forecasting accuracy by 2-3 *** third group,which includes the bidirectional TCN architecture(BiTCN),provided the highest *** this architecture,according to data obtained for 9 equatorial stations,practical independence of the TEC prediction accuracy from longitude was observed under the following metrics(Mean Absolute Error MAE,Root Mean Square Error RMSE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE):MAE(2 h)is 0.2 TECU approximately;MAE(24 h)is 0.4 TECU approximately;RMSE(2 h)is less than 0.5 TECU except Niue station(RMSE(2 h)is 1 TECU approximately);RMSE(24 h)is in the range of 1.0-1.7 TECU;MAPE(2 h)<1%except Darwin station,MAPE(24 h)<2%.This result was confirmed by data from additional 5 stations that formed latitudinal chains in the

关键词： Ionosphere Total electron content Forecasting BiGRU BiLSTM BiTCN Temporal convolution

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Testing of new ionospheric models along the meridian 110°E over the Northern Hemisphere

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2022年第6期13卷 544-553页

作者： Olga Maltseva artem kharakhashyan Tatyana Nikitenko Institute for Physics Southern Federal University344090Russia

Despite the continuous improvement of the widely used empirical model international reference ionosphere(IRI),the recently appeared new models must be tested *** along the meridians has the advantage of dealing with the latitudinal dependent *** paper uses new models of parameters foF2(critical frequency),TEC(total electron content),andτ(equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere),which are of great importance for evaluating the effects of space ***-Plas,NNT2F2,and NTSM models were tested using data from 6 ionosondes located along the meridian 110°E in March *** is shown that the IRI-Plas model provides the closest values to experiment with respect toτ,while the NTSM model provides a rather limited reflection of the latitude *** of foF2(NNT2F2)have shown that,the NNT2F2 model provides good conformity with experimental values in this area,but it is very dependent on the TEC processing *** latitudinal dependences of foF2 obtained with TEC and polynomial dependenceτ(Appr)showed the presence of positive deviations from medians not only during disturbances but also quiet periods,longitudinally at the meridian.

关键词： Ionosphere Modeling Total electron content Critical frequency Meridian 110°E

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