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Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1184-1200,I0022-I0034页

作者： Bin TANG Wenting HU anmin duan Yimin LIU Wen BAO Yue XIN Xianyi YANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China Chinese Academy of Sciences the CAS Institutes of Science and DevelopmentBeijing 101408China School of Public Policy and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent *** the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this *** on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are *** indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global *** changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of *** only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in ***,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these ***,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

关键词： CMIP6 heavy precipitation extreme drought South China Indochina economic impact

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Drivers of East Asian summer monsoon variability:Global oceans and the Tibetan Plateau

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Science Bulletin 2024年第16期69卷 2487-2490页

作者： anmin duan Guoxiong Wu Bin Wang Andrew G.Turner Jun Hu Wenting Hu Ping Zhang Die Hu Yuheng Tang Center for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental ScienceCollege of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonolulu 96822USA Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReading RG67BEUK

The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)profoundly influences the hydroclimate,ecosystems,and water resources of a densely populated region in *** EASM can lead to floods,droughts,significant economic losses,and social disruption in East Asia and Southeast *** the Indian and African monsoons,the EASM is shaped by both tropical and extratropical climate systems,including tropical oceanic modes,cross-equatorial airflows,the Madden-Julian Oscillation,the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau,the South Asia High,and the mid-latitude westerly jet.

关键词： Tibetan monsoon East

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春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型对东亚夏季风影响的研究进展

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大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 321-332页

作者：张超段安民厦门大学海洋与地球学院近海海洋环境科学国家重点实验室厦门361102

冬春青藏高原积雪异常是东亚夏季风的重要预测因子之一。本文系统回顾了近20年关于青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型影响东亚夏季风的相关研究,主要结论如下:(1)20世纪90年代初春季青藏高原积雪的年际变率从东西偶极型转变为全区一致型... 详细信息

冬春青藏高原积雪异常是东亚夏季风的重要预测因子之一。本文系统回顾了近20年关于青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型影响东亚夏季风的相关研究,主要结论如下:(1)20世纪90年代初春季青藏高原积雪的年际变率从东西偶极型转变为全区一致型,这主要受北太平洋、热带大西洋海温异常变化的影响,也与南极涛动、北极涛动的变化密切相关;(2)春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型可通过影响东亚高层的副热带西风急流和低层的水汽输送,进而影响东亚夏季风降水格局变化;(3)青藏高原积雪异常可通过“高原大气河”的机制影响梅雨雨带;(4)大西洋年代际振荡可调节春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨降水关系的年代际变化,当大西洋年代际振荡为正(负)位相时,春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨的关系加强(减弱)。最后,本文对青藏高原积雪异常影响东亚季风变化的关键科学问题进行了讨论与展望。

关键词：青藏高原积雪东亚夏季风降水

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Precipitation anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau affected by tropical sea-surface temperatures and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in September

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第3期66卷 619-632页

作者： Ping ZHANG anmin duan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China

Tibetan Plateau(TP)precipitation is affected by anomalous circulation systems in both the tropics and mid-latitudes,due to the TP’s unique geographical *** using observational,reanalysis,and CMIP6 model datasets,this study reveals the individual and joint effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)and Silk Road pattern(SRP)on the interannual variability of TP precipitation in *** the positive IOD phase,the zonal gradient of the sea-surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)drives a Gill-type response with an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian subcontinent and Bay of *** the north,anomalous westerlies induce a shallow trough,and the associated anomalous southwesterlies transport moisture to the southeastern TP,resulting in surplus precipitation ***,the westerly jet disturbances over the North Atlantic excite an SRP-like pattern,resulting in a baroclinic structure in northern India with the upper(lower)tropospheric anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over west-central Asia(northern India).The anomalous southwesterlies to the east of the low-level cyclone transport abundant moisture to the southeastern TP,which results in increased precipitation *** joint effects of IOD and SRP can explain nearly 52%of the TP precipitation anomaly,exceeding the contribution of IOD(19%)and SRP(27%)*** results highlight the necessity of considering the joint effects of drivers in the tropics and mid-latitudes,providing a basis for more accurate simulations and predictions of TP precipitation.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau precipitation Interannual variability Indian Ocean Dipole Silk Road pattern

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Can the tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal impact the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第5期58卷 915-928页

作者： XIAO ZhiXiang duan anmin State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

This study investigates the impacts of tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal(BOBTSs) on the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in April–June(AMJ) and September–December(SOND) during 1981–2011 based on the best track dataset provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC). Results indicate that there are about 1.35 BOBTSs influence the TP in each year and most of them occurred in May and October, and the BOBTSs in AMJ influence the TP with larger extension and higher latitudes than those in SOND. The maximum regional precipitation induced by the BOBTSs accounts for more than 50% for the total precipitation in the corresponding month and about 20% for the season. Further analysis reveals that the surface soil moisture anomalies induced by the BOBTSs can persist only 20–25 days in AMJ, and the case is also true for the snow depth in SOND. Numerical simulations by using the regional climate model of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) suggest that the soil moisture anomalies in the sub-surface can last 2 months whereas for the surface it can persist only about 20 days, which agrees well with the observation analysis. Overall, the effect of the preceding BOBTSs on the snow depth and soil moisture anomalies over the TP cannot maintain to summer, and there is no robust connection between the BOBTSs and summer precipitation anomalies in East China. Moreover, since the mid-1990 s, the spring rainfall induced by the BOBTSs over the TP seems to be enhanced to a certain degree because of the intensified BOBTSs.

关键词： tropical storms Bay of Bengal the Tibetan Plateau soil moisture snow depth WRF

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The energy and water cycles under climate change

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National Science Review 2020年第3期7卷 553-557页

作者： Qingyun duan anmin duan Hohai University the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Energy and water cycles have been a hot research topic in the global scientific community. The global climate change observed over the last century is having a profound impact on global and regional energy and water cycles, leading to more frequent extreme climatic events and affecting water security, ecosystem and socioeconomic development around the world. The impact is especially obvious over the highland regions such as the Tibetan Plateau. Here we have an interview with one of world’s most renowned experts in hydroclimatology,Professor Soroosh Sorooshian from the University of California at Irvine, to share his insights on the subject of energy and water cycles.

关键词： cycle GEWEX The energy and water cycles under climate change

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Impacts of boundary layer parameterization schemes and air-sea coupling on WRF simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第3期57卷 1480-1493页

作者： WANG ZiQian duan anmin WU GuoXiong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory for Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The planetary boundary layer （PBL） scheme in the regional climate model （RCM） has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture, momentum, and energy between land, ocean, and atmosphere; however, its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM. Based on the four different PBL schemes （YSU, ACM2, Boulac, and MYJ） in Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） are investigated. The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy （TKE） schemes, Boulac and MYJ, are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes, YSU and ACM2. The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high （WPSH） than the latter. As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation, both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MTT are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes. In addition, through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments, the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area. In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2, the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger, which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection, and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation. With the further study, it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean. Consequently, there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation, if an ocean model coupled into WRF.

关键词： WRF model boundary layer parameterization scheme East Asian summer monsoon air-sea coupling

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Impacts of the Leading Modes of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on Sub-Seasonal Evolution of the Circulation and Rainfall over East Asia during Boreal Spring and Summer

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 171-186页

作者： Senfeng LIU anmin duan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean （TIO） sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode （IOBM） and the Indian Ocean dipole mode （IODM） from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circula- tion and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific telecon- nection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the ef- fects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. There- fore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

关键词： East Asia sub-seasonal evolution Indian Ocean basin mode Indian Ocean dipole mode

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Wave-mean flow interaction and its relationship with the atmospheric energy cycle with diabatic heating

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第8期48卷 1293-1302页

作者： duan anmin WU Guoxiong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on the traditional theory of wave mean flow interaction, an improved quasi-geostrophic Eliassen-Palm flux with diabatic heating included is deduced. It is shown that there exists an intrinsic relation between the atmospheric energy cycle derived by Lorenz and the wave energy transfer derived by Eliassen and Palm. From this relation it becomes clear that the energy propagation process of large-scale stationary wave is indeed a part of Lorenz energy cycle, and the energy transform from mean flow to wave equals the global mass integral of the divergence of local wave energy flux or the global integral of local wave energy. The diagnostic results by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data suggest that the classical adiabatic Eliassen-Palm flux relation can present only the wintertime wave energy transformation. For other seasons, however, the diabatic effect must be taken into account.

关键词： wave-mean flow interaction, Eliassen-Palm flux, diabatic heating, Lorenz energy cycle, wave energy.

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Trend in the atmospheric heat source over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau during recent decades: Comparison of observations and reanalysis data

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第2期57卷 548-557页

作者： WANG MeiRong ZHOU ShunWu duan anmin Nanjing University oflnformation Science&Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The trend in the atmospheric heat source over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) is quantitatively estimated using historical observations at 71 meteorological stations, three reanalysis datasets from 1980-2008, and two satellite radiation datasets from 1984-2007. Results show that a weakening of sensible heat (SH) flux over the CE-TP continues. The most significant trend occurs in spring, induced mainly by decelerated surface wind speeds. The ground-air temperature difference shows a notable increasing trend over the last 5 years. Trends in net radiation flux of the atmospheric column over the CE-TP, evaluated by two satellite radiation datasets, are clearly different. Trends in the atmospheric heat source calculated by the three reanalysis datasets are not completely consistent, and even show opposite signals. Results from the two datasets both show a weakening of the heat source but the magnitude of one is significantly stronger, whereas an increase is indicated by the other data. Therefore, it is challenging to accurately calculate the trend in the atmospheric heat source over the CE-TP, particularly from the estimates of the reanalysis datasets.

关键词：再分析资料气象观测站大气热源青藏高原净辐射通量定量估计数据集感热通量

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