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Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 National meteorological Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 3 Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Chinese academy of meteorological sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Simulated seasonal movement of precipitation zone in rainy season over china and its change on CO_2-doubling

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1993年第2期5卷 150-157页

作者： Cao HongxingChinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china Chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing 10081 China. China

In this paper, an investigation of simulated monthly precipitations from April to September is made. Though the precipitations are sometimes overestimated or underestimated, the geographical advance and recession of precipitation zones are well simulated by the UKMO global climate model with a simple mixed-layer ocean. Main characteristics of large-scale precipitation distribution are changed less on CO2-doubling, but the change is significant in some regions. The change in precipitation threatens us while the dry region is imposed by rainfall defect or the wet region by abundant rainfall induced by CO2-doubling.

关键词： greenhouse effect carbon dioxide change climate simulation.

Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2 1. National meteorological Centre, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100080, china National meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

The possible pivotal role of the eastward dust transport from Central Asia in the global temperature decrease

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第A01期51卷 1-7页

作者： LIU Mingzhe & WEI Wenshou Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese academy of sciences, Urumqi 830011, china Graduate University of the Chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039, china Chemical Laboratory for Atmosphere, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Urumqi Desert Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Urumqi 830002, china Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

glacial-interglacialgyrations 的出现能与 Milankovitch 理论被解释，这通常被考虑。然而，在理论的一些问题的答案还当前没被导出。在从 CentralAsia 研究东方灰尘运输以后，我们发现了在东方灰尘运输和全球温度减少之间有积极反馈... 详细信息

glacial-interglacialgyrations 的出现能与 Milankovitch 理论被解释，这通常被考虑。然而，在理论的一些问题的答案还当前没被导出。在从 CentralAsia 研究东方灰尘运输以后，我们发现了在东方灰尘运输和全球温度减少之间有积极反馈机制。这在北半球的 thehigh 纬度区域放大太阳的放射变化的效果，并且导致全球冰川的时代的出现。积极反馈机制在北半球的 thehigh 纬度区域以太阳的放射的减小开始。随后，全球温度减少，全球冰川的历元发生，在哪个枢轴的因素是从 CentralAsia 的东方灰尘运输。与积极反馈机制的理论，在 Milankovitch 理论的一些问题能被解决很好。

关键词：冰川间冰期高纬度地区北半球太阳辐射正反馈机制

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 National meteorological Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in china induced by greenhouse effect

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： Zhao Zongci and Ding Yihuiacademy of meteorological Science,State meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in china .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in china as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in china due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in china, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2 1. National meteorological Center, beijing 100081,china 2. Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china National meteorological Center Beijing China Chinese academy of meteorological sciences Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2002. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2000, including the 24—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3,4, HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3 1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100012, china 3 Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 4 National Center for Space Weather, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系