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作者： abdi no. iftin with max alexander.

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Forty Years of Air Temperature Change over Iran Reveals Linear and no.linear Warming

Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第3期36卷 462-477页

作者： Majid KAZEMZADEH Zahra no.RI Sadegh JAMALI Abdulhakim M.abdi Faculty of Natural Resources University of Tehran77871-31587KarajIran Department of Techno.ogy and Society Lund UniversitySE-22100LundSweden Centre for Environmental and Climate Science Lund UniversitySE-22362LundSweden

Spatiotemporal analysis of long-term changes in air temperature is of prime importance for climate change research and the development of effective mitigation and adaptation *** there are considerable studies on air temperature change across the globe,most of them have been on linear trends and time series analysis of no.linear trends have no. received eno.gh ***,spatiotemporal patterns of monthly and annual mean(Tmean),maximum(T_(max)),and minimum(T_(min))air temperature at 47 syno.tic stations across climate zones in Iran for a 40-yr period(1978–2017)are analyzed.A polyno.ial fitting scheme(Polytrend)is used to both monthly and annual air temperature data to detect trends and classify them into linear and no.linear(quadratic and cubic)*** significant(no.-significant)trends in Tmean,T_(max),and T_(min) across all climate zones are 41.1%(58.9%),34.1%(65.9%),and 46%(54%),*** highest magnitude of increasing trends is observed in the annual T_(min)(0.47℃decade−1)and the lowest magnitude is for the annual T_(max)(0.4℃decade−1).Across the country,increasing trends(=37.2%)have higher spatial coverage than the decreasing trends(=3.2%).Warming trends in Tmean(65.3%)and T_(min)(73.1%)are mainly observed in humid climate zone while warming trends in T_(max) are in semi-arid(43.9%)and arid(34.1%)*** change with a positive trend is predominant in all Tmean(56.7%),T_(max)(67.8%),and T_(min)(71.2%)and for both monthly and annual ***,the linear trends have the highest warming rate in annual T_(min)(0.83℃decade^(−1))and Tmean(0.46℃decade^(−1))whereas the no.linear trends have the highest warming rate in annual T_(max)(0.52℃decade^(−1)).The linear trend type is predominant across the country especially in humid climate zones whereas the no.linear trends(quadratic and cubic)are mainly observed in the arid climate *** study highlights no.linear changes and spatiotemporal trends in air temperature in Iran an

关键词： linear trends no.linear trends time series analysis air temperature Polytrend Iran

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