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Unraveling the dose-response puzzle of ***:A mechanistic approach

Infectious Disease Modelling 2016年第1期1卷 101-114页

作者： S.M.Ashrafur Rahman Daniel Munther aamir fazil Ben Smith Jianhong Wu Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Centre for Disease ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoON M3J 1P3Canada Department of Mathematics Cleveland State UniversityClevelandOH 44115United States National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of CanadaGuelphON N1G 5B2Canada

Food-borne disease outbreaks caused by Listeria monocytogenes continue to impose heavy burdens on public health in North America and *** explore the threat *** presents to the elderly,pregnant woman and immuno-compromised individuals,many studies have focused on in-host infection mechanisms and risk evaluation in terms of dose-response ***,the connection of these two foci has received little attention,leaving risk prediction with an insufficient mechanistic ***,there is a critical need to quantifiably link in-host infection pathways with the doseresponse *** better understand these relationships,we propose a new mathematical model to describe the gastro-intestinal pathway of *** within the *** model dynamics are shown to be sensitive to inoculation doses and exhibit bistability *** the model to guinea pigs,we show how it provides useful tools to identify key parameters and to inform critical values of these parameters that are pivotal in risk *** preliminary analysis shows that the effect of gastroenvironmental stress,the role of commensal microbiota and immune cells are critical for successful infection of *** and for dictating the shape of the doseresponse curves.

关键词： L.monocytogenes Dose-response Mechanistic model Bi-stable Guinea pig

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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto,Ontario,and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 83-93页

作者： Pei Yuan Elena Aruffo Yi Tan Liu Yang Nicholas HOgden aamir fazil Huaiping Zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Centre for Diseases ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoONCanada Public Health Agency of Canada(PHAC) OttawaONCanada

At the end of 2021,with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant,testing centers in Canada were *** alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity,many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests,making the count of new cases *** designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines,social behaviours,booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant *** better describe the testing eligibility,we considered the population divided into high risk and non-highrisk *** model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9,2022,on cases and severe outcomes in Canada,the province of Ontario and City of *** conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity,self testing,different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe *** results show that the total number of cases in Canada,Ontario and Toronto are 2.34(95%CI:1.22e3.38),2.20(95%CI:1.15e3.72),and 1.97(95%CI:1.13e3.41),times larger than reported cases,*** current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions,such as limited capacity in public spaces,are *** more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes;however,if PCR test capacity is insufficient,then it is important to promote self ***,we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections,peaking in late March or April *** and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.

关键词： PCR testing Self-testing Booster dose Social behavior Mathematical model COVID-19 Omicron Exit strategy

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