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Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2:A mathematical model

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 701-712页

作者： Gabrielle Brankston David N.Fisman zvonimir poljak Ashleigh R.Tuite Amy L.Greer Department of Population Medicine University of GuelphCanada Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of TorontoCanada Centre for Immunization Readiness Public Health Agency of CanadaOttawaOntarioCanada

Background Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic,policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the *** individuals will voluntarily engage in self-protective behaviour when there is an increasing infectious disease risk,the extent to which this occurs and its impact on an epidemic is not *** This paper describes a deterministic disease transmission model exploring the impact of individual avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated avoidance behaviour on epidemic outcomes during the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ontario,Canada(September 1,2020 to February 28,2021).The model incorporates an information feedback function based on empirically derived behaviour data describing the degree to which avoidance behaviour changed in response to the number of new daily cases *** Voluntary avoidance behaviour alone was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 23.1%,the total number of hospitalizations by 26.2%,and cumulative deaths by 27.5%over 6 months compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there were no interventions or avoidance behaviour.A provincial shutdown order issued on December 26,2020 was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 66.7%,the total number of hospitalizations by 66.8%,and the total number of deaths by 67.2%compared to the counterfactual *** Given the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a pre-vaccine era,individual avoidance behaviour in the absence of government action would have resulted in a moderate reduction in disease however,it would not have been sufficient to entirely mitigate transmission and the associated risk to the population in *** action during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario reduced infections,protected hospital capacity,and saved lives.

关键词： Mathematical modelling COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Human behaviour

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Within-host model of respiratory virus shedding and antibody response to H9N2 avian influenza virus vaccination and infection in chickens

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 490-502页

作者： Xiao-Ting Xie Alexander Yitbarek Jake Astill Shirene Singh Salah Uddin Khan Shayan Sharif zvonimir poljak Amy L.Greer Department of Population Medicine University of GuelphONCanada Department of Pathobiology University of GuelphONCanada School of Veterinary Medicine University of the West IndiesSt.AugustineTrinidad and Tobago

Avian influenza virus(AIV)H9N2 subtype is an infectious pathogen that can affect both the respiratory and gastrointestinal systems in chickens and continues to have an important economic impact on the poultry *** the host innate immune response provides control of virus replication in early infection,the adaptive immune response aids to clear infections and prevent future *** virus-innate immune response pathways can improve our understanding of early infection dynamics and help to guide our understanding of virus shedding dynamics that could lead to reduced transmission between *** some countries use vaccines for the prevention of H9N2 AIV in poultry,the virus continues to be endemic in regions of Eurasia and Africa,indicating a need for improved vaccine efficacy or vaccination *** we explored how three type-I interferon(IFN)pathways affect respiratory virus shedding patterns in infected chickens using a within-host ***,prime and boost vaccination strategies for a candidate H9N2 AIV vaccine are assessed for the ability to elicit seroprotective antibody *** model demonstrates that inclusion of virus sensitivity to intracellular type-I IFN pathways results in a shedding pattern most consistent with virus titres observed in infected chickens,and the inclusion of a cellular latent period does not improve model ***,early administration of a booster dose two weeks after the initial vaccine is administered results in seroprotective titres for the greatest length of time for both broilers and *** results demonstrate that type-I IFN intracellular mechanisms are required in a model of respiratory virus shedding in H9N2 AIV infected chickens,and also highlights the need for improved vaccination strategies for laying hens.

关键词： Avian influenza Disease modelling Innate immunity Adaptive immunity Poultry

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母猪群爆发PRRS的经济损失及不同控制措施的经济效益分析

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国外畜牧学（猪与禽） 2011年第5期31卷 33-34页

作者：曲向阳姚火春 zvonimir poljak Isabelle Moreau

猪群爆发发蓝耳病时，畜主与兽医有以下几种可选择的控制措施：（1）对病猪或猪群进行治疗以缓解临床症状，使该病在猪群中自然发展并转归；（2）采用商品化疫苗对猪群进行紧急免疫或利用来自康复个体的自然野毒对母猪群进行同群感染；... 详细信息

猪群爆发发蓝耳病时，畜主与兽医有以下几种可选择的控制措施：（1）对病猪或猪群进行治疗以缓解临床症状，使该病在猪群中自然发展并转归；（2）采用商品化疫苗对猪群进行紧急免疫或利用来自康复个体的自然野毒对母猪群进行同群感染；（3）在蓝耳病爆发后立即利用替米考星全群给药四周，或同时选用蓝耳病毒进行全群感染。

关键词：母猪群经济效益分析爆发后经济损失 PRRS 控制蓝耳病毒自然发展

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