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Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2013-2028页

作者： Daquan ZHANG Lijuan CHEN Gill MMARTIN zongjian ke China Meteorological Administration key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Met Office Hadley Centre Met OfficeExeter EX13PBUK

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead *** GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast ***5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background ***5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East *** representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

关键词： East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5) El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction skill model bias

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO zongjian ke Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial Climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National Climate Observatory Panjin124000China China Meteorological Administration key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial Climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

Predictability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High Associated with Different ENSO Phases in GloSea5

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 926-940页

作者： Daquan ZHANG Gill M.MARTIN Jose MRODRIGUEZ zongjian ke Lijuan CHEN Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) dominates the summer climate over East Asia. The intensity,position, and shape of WNPSH influence the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclone activities in this region. This paper intends to investigate the performance of the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(GloSea5) in simulation/prediction of the WNPSH based on a hindcast dataset. Analyses of the hindcast data show a systematic bias in the mean circulation over West Pacific, with negative geopotential height anomalies over the western North Pacific(WNP) and cyclonic anomalies in the 850-hPa winds and water vapor transport, indicating a weakening and eastward shift of the WNPSH. Despite the model’s bias in the climatology, it well captured the interannual variability of the monthly and seasonal-mean intensity of the WNPSH and the position of its ridge line in boreal summer from 1993 to 2015. The seasonal hindcasts indicate that there is significant prediction skill at up to three-month lead time for both the intensity and position of the WNPSH ridge line. The relationship between the WNPSH and different phases of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in both the observational data and GloSea5 hindcasts was then investigated. The model captured the summer WNPSH anomalies well during most of the ENSO phases, except in the La Nina decaying and neutral summers. The intensity of the anticyclone in the WNP is weak in the decaying phase of El Nino in the GloSea5 hindcasts compared with the reanalysis data. GloSea5 is capable of representing the lagged teleconnection between El Nino events in the previous winter and the intensity of the WNPSH in the following summer. Regression analysis reveals weakened negative sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) over the WNP in GloSea5, which reduced the gradient between the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean, resulting in a weaker easterly anomaly a

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(GloSea5) El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) precipitation predictability

Climate Services for Water Resource Management in China: The Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 87-100页

作者： Yujie WANG Xiang LI Song LIU Zhenyu HAN Lianchun SONG zongjian ke keyao CHEN key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Hanjiang Water Resources&Hydropower Group Co. Ltd.Wuhan 430000

The efficiencies and effectiveness of water resource management are inextricably linked to climate services. This study demonstrates a climate information service for Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the largest artificial lake in Asia, facing mounting challenges for flood control, water storage, and water diversion. Unlike traditional water resource management on the basis of short-term weather forecast and runoff monitoring, subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)and annual climate predictions as well as long-term climate change projections were well used to support the decision makers in Danjiangkou Reservoir. The National Climate Center(NCC) has projected the changes of future climate and extreme events by dynamically downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)projections to 25-km resolution for the long-term planning of water resource management in Danjiangkou ***-time climate predictions based on climate models and downscaling interpretation and application methods at different timescales were also provided to meet the specific needs of earlier predictions and spatial refinement for the short-term diversion of the reservoir. Our results show that such climate services facilitated the Diversion Center of Danjiangkou Reservoir(DCDR) to reasonably control the operational water level, increased the ecological water supply to the northern portion of China by 844 million m^(3), and reduced as much as 1.67 billion m^(3) of abandoned water in 2019. In the future, it is necessary to develop climate prediction methods to increase spatial and temporal resolutions and prediction skills, and enhance interactions between providers and users.

关键词： climate service water resource management climate prediction climate projection reservoir

The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 546-552页

作者： Fei ZHENG Yuan YUAN Yihui DING kexin LI Xianghui FANG Yuheng ZHAO Yue SUN Jiang ZHU zongjian ke Ji WANG Xiaolong JIA International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China National Climate Center Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing 100089China

In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of ***,a moderate La Niña event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 *** this report,the mid−high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/*** the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Niña)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high *** the end,a most recent La Niña prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.

关键词： extremely cold winter anomalous atmospheric circulation synergistic effect La Niña warm Arctic

青藏高原雨季的客观监测方法及其近60年的变化趋势

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地球物理学报 2023年第2期66卷 505-517页

作者：王遵娅蒋兴文柯宗建中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所成都610072 高原与盆地暴雨洪涝灾害四川省重点实验室成都610072

本文通过对青藏高原降水季节演变特征的分析,选取日降水量和降水频率两个特征量来定义青藏高原各站点及全区的雨季,揭示了1961-2019年青藏高原雨季开始时间、结束时间、雨季长度和总雨量等的气候和变化特征.分析发现,青藏高原雨季的开... 详细信息

本文通过对青藏高原降水季节演变特征的分析,选取日降水量和降水频率两个特征量来定义青藏高原各站点及全区的雨季,揭示了1961-2019年青藏高原雨季开始时间、结束时间、雨季长度和总雨量等的气候和变化特征.分析发现,青藏高原雨季的开始自东向西推进,而结束西早东晚,雨季持续时间自东向西缩短,雨季雨量东多西少.就青藏高原整体而言,雨季开始的平均日期在5月4日,结束的平均日期在10月15日,雨季平均持续163天,雨季雨量平均为413.2 mm.近60年,青藏高原雨季发生了显著变化,表现为开始时间提前、结束时间推迟、雨季延长、雨量增多.青藏高原各站点雨季的变化具有一定的区域性差异,主要表现为:高原雨季的开始整体提前,但是,高原东部边缘雨季开始提前的变化幅度相对较小;高原雨季的结束时间在南部和北部提前而在中部和东部推后;高原大部地区雨季雨量增多,但南部边缘等部分地区雨季雨量有所减少.

关键词：雨季青藏高原监测方法气候特征变化趋势

同方期刊数据库博看期刊评论

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一种适用于延伸期过程事件预报的检验方法

应用气象学报 2013年第6期24卷 686-694页

作者：杜良敏柯宗建国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081 武汉区域气候中心武汉430074

基于延伸期过程性天气气候事件预报评估的特点,结合实际科研和业务工作的需求,提出了一种适用于延伸期过程预报的检验方法(简称PPS方法 )。该方法参考了常用的预报评分方法准则,借鉴了命中率、假警报率、欧式距离和动态时间弯曲距离等... 详细信息

基于延伸期过程性天气气候事件预报评估的特点,结合实际科研和业务工作的需求,提出了一种适用于延伸期过程预报的检验方法(简称PPS方法 )。该方法参考了常用的预报评分方法准则,借鉴了命中率、假警报率、欧式距离和动态时间弯曲距离等评估检验方法。利用命中率、假警报率和该方法对实际预报中可能出现的有漏报没有空报和既有漏报也有空报这两类情况的多个实例进行对比分析,表明该方法既能考虑大气随着时间的延长预报效果急剧降低的特性,也考虑了相似时间序列度量不精确匹配和形变的问题。利用该方法对1999—2010年冬季冷空气过程业务预报进行检验,结果表明:该方法能清晰表征延伸期预报时段内冷空气过程预报的准确程度,真实反映了目前延伸期预报准确率较低的现状,有较好的适用性。同时,该方法也适用于其他延伸期过程事件预报的评分,具有较好的应用前景。

关键词：延伸期预报检验 PPS方法

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2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征分析

气象 2009年第12期35卷 44-50页

作者：王瑾柯宗建江吉喜国家卫星气象中心北京100081 国家气候中心

对2008年西北太平洋及我国南海热带气旋的活动特征进行总结,并从多方面分析其成因。结果指出:2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的主要特征为生成总数少,源地集中,位置偏西;登陆数多、时间早;登陆地点偏南、时间集中等。其原因主要在于:在... 详细信息

对2008年西北太平洋及我国南海热带气旋的活动特征进行总结,并从多方面分析其成因。结果指出:2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的主要特征为生成总数少,源地集中,位置偏西;登陆数多、时间早;登陆地点偏南、时间集中等。其原因主要在于:在热带气旋的多发期副热带高压面积偏大、强度偏强、西伸脊点异常偏西,且脊线偏南,造成西北太平洋热带地区盛行偏东风,不利于热带扰动的生成和发展;同时,也使得在其南侧生成的热带气旋易在偏东气流的引导下登陆我国南方。另外,季风槽、垂直风切变、海表温度和热带辐合带上的对流活动等因子的异常分布都不利于热带气旋在西北太平洋东部海域生成,直接导致这一年热带气旋生成总数明显偏少,源地显著偏西。

关键词：热带气旋副热带高压季风槽垂直风切变海表温度射出长波辐射

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2020年夏季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

气象 2021年第1期47卷 117-126页

作者：刘芸芸王永光柯宗建国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044

2020年夏季我国天气气候极为异常,全国平均降水量为373.0 mm,较常年同期偏多14.7%,为1961年以来次多;季节内阶段性特征显著,6—7月多雨带主要位于江南大部—江淮地区,8月则主要在东北、华北及西南地区,致使2020年夏季雨型分布异常,不是... 详细信息

2020年夏季我国天气气候极为异常,全国平均降水量为373.0 mm,较常年同期偏多14.7%,为1961年以来次多;季节内阶段性特征显著,6—7月多雨带主要位于江南大部—江淮地区,8月则主要在东北、华北及西南地区,致使2020年夏季雨型分布异常,不是传统认识上的四类雨型分布。通过对同期大气环流和热带海温等异常特征分析发现,6—7月,欧亚中高纬环流表现为“两脊一槽”型,东亚副热带夏季风异常偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)较常年同期显著偏强、偏西,第一次季节性北跳偏早,第二次北跳明显偏晚,且表现出明显的准双周振荡特征;使得来自西北太平洋的转向水汽输送偏强,并与中高纬不断南下的冷空气活动相配合,水汽通量异常辐合区主要位于长江中下游地区,导致江淮梅雨异常偏多。热带印度洋持续偏暖对维持6—7月西太副高偏强偏西及东亚夏季风异常偏弱起到了重要作用。8月,欧亚中高纬环流调整为“两槽一脊”型,蒙古低压活跃;西太副高也由前期偏纬向型的带状分布转为“块状”分布,脊线位置偏北;沿西太副高外围的异常西南风水汽输送延伸至华北—东北南部,形成自西南到东北的异常多雨带,与6—7月江淮流域降水异常偏多的空间分布有明显不同。异常的热带大气季节内振荡活动是导致8月中低纬大气环流发生调整的重要原因。

关键词：夏季降水梅雨西太平洋副热带高压印度洋暖海温热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)