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An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble Prediction

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 545-563页

作者： Xin LIU Jing CHEN Yongzhu LIU zhenhua huo Zhizhen XU Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Yanan MA Yumeng HAN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China Tianjin Meteorological Observatory Tianjin 300074China China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory Hebei 071799China

Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.

关键词： multiscale uncertainty singular vector initial perturbation global ensemble prediction system

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The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第2期62卷 376-388页

作者： zhenhua huo Wansuo DUAN National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) method, orthogonal singular vectors (SVs)method and CNOP+SVs method, which is similar to the orthogonal SVs method but replaces the leading SV (LSV) with the first CNOP, are adopted in both the Lorenz-96 model and Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) for ensemble forecasts. Using the MM5, typhoon track ensemble forecasting experiments are conducted for strong Typhoon Matsa in 2005. The results of the Lorenz-96 model show that the CNOP+SVs method has a higher ensemble forecast skill than the orthogonal SVs method, but ensemble forecasts using the orthogonal CNOPs method have the highest forecast skill. The results from the MM5 show that orthogonal CNOPs have a wider horizontal distribution and better describe the forecast uncertainties compared with SVs. When generating the ensemble mean forecast, equally averaging the ensemble members in addition to the anomalously perturbed forecast members may contribute to a higher forecast skill than equally averaging all of the ensemble members. Furthermore, for given initial perturbation amplitudes, the CNOP+SVs method may not have an ensemble forecast skill greater than that of the orthogonal SVs method, but the orthogonal CNOPs method is likely to have the highest forecast skill. Compared with SVs, orthogonal CNOPs fully consider the influence of nonlinear physical processes on the forecast results; therefore, considering the influence of nonlinearity may be important when generating fast-growing initial ensemble perturbations. All of the results show that the orthogonal CNOP method may be a potential new approach for ensemble forecasting.

关键词： Ensemble forecasts Initial perturbation Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation Singular vector Typhoon track

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Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第2期36卷 231-247页

作者： zhenhua huo Wansuo DUAN Feifan ZHOU National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

This paper preliminarily investigates the application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs)–based ensemble forecast technique in MM5(Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model). The results show that the ensemble forecast members generated by the orthogonal CNOPs present large spreads but tend to be located on the two sides of real tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and have good agreements between ensemble spreads and ensemble-mean forecast errors for TC tracks. Subsequently, these members reflect more reasonable forecast uncertainties and enhance the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts to obtain higher skill for TC tracks than the orthogonal SVs(singular vectors)–, BVs(bred vectors)– and RPs(random perturbations)–based ones. The results indicate that orthogonal CNOPs of smaller magnitudes should be adopted to construct the initial ensemble perturbations for short lead–time forecasts, but those of larger magnitudes should be used for longer lead–time forecasts due to the effects of nonlinearities. The performance of the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts is case-dependent,which encourages evaluating statistically the forecast skill with more TC cases. Finally, the results show that the ensemble forecasts with only initial perturbations in this work do not increase the forecast skill of TC intensity, which may be related with both the coarse model horizontal resolution and the model error.

关键词： ensemble forecast initial perturbation conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation tropical cyclone

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Application and Characteristic Analysis of the Moist Singular Vector in GRAPES-GEPS

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第11期37卷 1164-1178页

作者： Jing WANG Bin WANG Juanjuan LIU Yongzhu LIU Jing CHEN zhenhua huo State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China

The singular vector(SV)initial perturbation method can capture the fastest-growing initial perturbation in a tangent linear model(TLM).Based on the global tangent linear and adjoint model of GRAPES-GEPS(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Global Ensemble Prediction System),some experiments were carried out to analyze the structure of the moist SVs from the perspectives of the energy norm,energy spectrum,and vertical *** conclusions are as follows:The evolution of the SVs is synchronous with that of the atmospheric circulation,which is *** moist and dry SVs are located in unstable regions at mid-to-high latitudes,but the moist SVs are wider,can contain more small-and medium-scale information,and have more energy than the dry *** the energy spectrum analysis,the energy growth caused by the moist SVs is reflected in the relatively small-scale weather *** addition,moist SVs can generate perturbations associated with large-scale condensation and precipitation,which is not true for dry *** the ensemble forecasts,the average anomaly correlation coefficient of large-scale circulation is better for the forecast based on moist SVs in the Northern Hemisphere,and the low-level variables forecasted by the moist SVs are also improved,especially in the first 72 *** addition,the moist SVs respond better to short-term precipitation according to statistical precipitation scores based on 10 *** inclusion of the large-scale condensation process in the calculation of SVs can improve the short-term weather prediction effectively.

关键词： moist singular vector GRAPES-GEPS adjoint model ensemble prediction

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Motion-pressure coupled control and simulation of long-endurance capability for multicapsule stratospheric airships

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2024年第6期37卷 137-150页

作者： Zhiguang SHI Wei huo Zongyu ZUO School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Beijing Near Space Airship Technology Development Co. LtdBeijing 100070China

The current study focuses on the motion-pressure coupled control for a multicapsule stratospheric airship and transforms the path-tracking and heading-hold control of airships into guidance tracking with a time-varying weighted sum of longitudinal and lateral velocities by the definition of compound ***,an improved nonlinear predictive control method is provided to reduce the control energy consumption by the rolling optimization of controller parameters based on finite time intervals,ensuring infinite-time path-tracking ***,combined with the proposed cyclic regulation process of safe pressure between internal and external capsules,this study can fully reflect the force-thermal coupled rule of airships under the actions of atmospheric environment and maneuvering force,while evaluating the long-endurance capability of airships under the conditions of safe superheating and *** effectiveness of the motionpressure coupled controller was verified through numerical simulations,which can overcome the influence of environmental wind and achieve a tracking effect for the desired cruise path and compound *** airspeed provided during the cyclic circadian time caused the maximum superheating of the helium controlled within 30*** helium in the internal and external capsules achieved circadian *** equivalent micropore diameter of the capsule of 5 mm can achieve 55 days of long-endurance *** controller satisfies the requirements of cruise-flight application modes for multicapsule stratospheric airships with important engineering value.

关键词： Compound speed Nonlinear predictive control Cyclic pressure regulation Long-endurance capability Stratospheric airship

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High performance photodegradation resistant PVA@TiO_(2)/carboxyl-PES self-healing reactive ultrafiltration membrane

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Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering 2024年第2期66卷 31-39页

作者： Yu Liang Yuanfang Fan Zhongmin Su Mingxin huo Xia Yang Hongliang huo Chi Wang Zhi Geng College of Environment Engineering Research Center of Low-Carbon Treatment and Green Development of Polluted Water in Northeast ChinaMinistry of EducationNortheast Normal UniversityChangchun 130117China School of Science Hainan UniversityHaikou 570225China

The occurrence of ultrafiltration(UF)membrane fouling frequently hampers the sustainable advancement of UF *** self-cleaning UF membranes can effectively alleviate the problem of membrane ***,the self-cleaning process may accelerate membrane *** these concerns,we present an innovative design concept for composite self-healing materials based on self-cleaning UF *** begin,TiO_(2)nanoparticles were incorporated into the polymer molecular structure via molecular design,resulting in the synthesis of TiO_(2)/carboxyl-polyether sulfone(PES)hybrid ***,the nonsolvent-induced phase inversion technique was employed to prepare a novel of UF ***,a polyvinyl alcohol(PVA)hydrogel coating was applied to the hybrid UF membrane surface to create PVA@TiO_(2)/carboxyl-PES self-healing reactive UF *** establishing a covalent bond,the TiO_(2)nanoparticles were effectively and uniformly dispersed within the UF membrane,leading to exceptional self-cleaning ***,the water-absorbing and swelling properties of PVA hydrogel,along with its capacity to form hydrogen bonds with water molecules,resulted in UF membranes with improved hydrophilicity and active self-healing *** results demonstrated that the water contact angle of PVA@5%TiO_(2)/carboxyl-PES UF membrane was 43.1°.Following a 1-h exposure to simulated solar exposure,the water flux recovery ratio increased from 48.16%to 81.03%.Moreover,even after undergoing five cycles of 12-h simulated sunlight exposure,the UF membranes exhibited a consistent retention rate of over 97%,thus fully demonstrating their exceptional self-cleaning,antifouling,and selfhealing *** anticipate that the self-healing reactive UF membrane system will serve as a pioneering and comprehensive solution for the self-cleaning antifouling challenges encountered in UF membranes while also effectively mitigating the aging effects of reactive

关键词： Ultrafiltration membrane Self-cleaning Self-healing Poly(aryl ether sulfone)

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Intermittent fasting boosts antitumor immunity by restricting CD11b^(+)Ly6C^(low)Ly6G^(low) cell viability through glucose metabolism in murine breast tumor model

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Food Science and Human Wellness 2024年第4期13卷 2327-2345页

作者： Chenghao Fu Zhehao Liang Zemiao Niu Ning Chen Yuemin Li zhenhua Liang Yanwei huo Hao Xi Rong Wang Yonghuan Yan Xiaoruo Gan Mengtian Wang Yun Huang Yan Zhang Mingming Gao Pin Lü Postdoctoral Station for Basic Medicine Cardiovascular Medical Science CenterDepartment of Cell BiologyKey Laboratory of Neural and Vascular Biology of Ministry of EducationHebei Medical UniversityShijiazhuang 050017China Hebei Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine College of Forensic MedicineHebei Medical UniversityShijiazhuang 050017China Hebei Food Safety Key Laboratory Hebei Food Inspection and Research InstituteShijiazhuang 050091China Laboratory of Lipid Metabolism Department of Biochemistry and Molecular BiologyKey Laboratory of Medical Biotechnology of Hebei ProvinceShijiazhuang 050017China

Intermittent fasting can benefit breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy or ***,it is still uncertain how to select immunotherapy drugs to combine with intermittent *** we observed that two cycles of fasting treatment significantly inhibited breast tumor growth and lung tissue metastasis,as well as prolonged overall survival in mice bearing 4T1 and 4T07 breast *** this process,both the immunosuppressive monocytic-(M-)and granulocytic-(G-)myeloid-derived suppressor cell(MDSC)decreased,accompanied by an increase in interleukin(IL)7R^(+)and granzyme B^(+)T cells in the tumor ***,we observed that Ly6G^(low)G-MDSC sharply decreased after fasting treatment,and the cell surface markers and protein mass spectrometry data showed potential therapeutic *** investigation revealed that glucose metabolism restriction suppressed the splenic granulocytemonocyte progenitor and the generation of colony-stimulating factors and IL-6,which both contributed to the accumulation of *** the other hand,glucose metabolism restriction can directly induce the apoptosis of Ly6G^(low)G-MDSC,but not Ly6G^(high)*** summary,these results suggest that glucose metabolism restriction induced by fasting treatment attenuates the immune-suppressive milieu and enhances the activation of CD3^(+)T cells,providing potential solutions for enhancing immune-based cancer interventions.

关键词： Intermittent fasting Ly6G^(low)myeloid-derived suppressor cell apoptosis Extramedullary hematopoiesis Colony stimulating factor Glucose metabolism restriction

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Robust Interval State Estimation for Distribution Systems Considering Pseudo-measurement Interval Prediction

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Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2024年第1期12卷 179-188页

作者： Xu Zhang Wei Yan Meiqing huo Hui Li the School of Electrical Engineering Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044China

Interval state estimation(ISE)can estimate state intervals of power systems according to confidence intervals of predicted pseudo-measurements,thereby analyzing the impact of uncertain pseudo-measurements on ***,predicted pseudo-measurements have prediction errors,and their confidence intervals do not necessarily contain the truth values,leading to estimation biases of the *** solve this problem,this paper proposes a pseudo-measurement interval prediction framework based on the Gaussian process regression(GPR)model,thereby improving the prediction accuracy of pseudo-measurement confidence ***,a weight assignment strategy for improving the robustness of weighted least squares(WLS)ISE is *** strategy quantifies the deviation between the pseudo-measurement intervals and their estimated intervals and assigns smaller weights to the pseudo-measurement intervals with larger deviations,thereby improving the estimation accuracy and robustness of the *** paper adopts the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system of the New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).It verifies the advantages of the GPR method for pseudo-measurement interval prediction by comparing it with the quantile regression and neural network *** addition,this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed weight assignment strategy through the IEEE 14-bus ***,the differences in the estimation accuracy and the bad data identification between the robust interval state estimation and deterministic state estimation are discussed.

关键词： Interval state estimation interval analysis pseudo-measurement Gaussian process regression(GPR)

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Enhancing lithium-sulfur battery performance with In_(2)O_(3)-In_(2)S_(3)@NSC heterostructures:Synergistic effects of double barrier and catalytic transformation

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Journal of Materials Science & Technology 2024年第2期169卷 105-114页

作者： Deqing He Chunyu Zhu Yutao huo Zhonghao Rao School of Energy and Environmental Engineering Hebei University of TechnologyTianjin 300401China Hebei Key Laboratory of Thermal Science and Energy Clean Utilization Hebei University of TechnologyTianjin 300401China School of Low-carbon Energy and Power Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhou 221116China

The sluggish redox reaction kinetics of lithium polysulfides(LiPSs)are considered the main obstacle to the commercial application of lithium-sulfur(Li-S)*** accelerate the conversion by catalysis and inhibit the shuttling of soluble LiPSs in Li-S batteries,a solution is proposed in this *** solution involves fabrication of N,S co-doped carbon coated In_(2)O_(3)/In_(2)S_(3)heterostructure(In_(2)O_(3)-In_(2)S_(3)@NSC)as a multifunctional host material for the *** In_(2)O_(3)-In_(2)S_(3)@NSC composite can reduce the Gibbs free energy for the conversion reactions of LiPSs,which results in superior *** synergy between different components in In_(2)O_(3)-In_(2)S_(3)@NSC and the unique 3D structure facilitate ion and electron transport in Li-S *** In_(2)O_(3)-In_(2)S_(3)@NSC/Li 2 S 6 cathode exhibits excellent rate capacity,with a capacity of 599 mAh g−1 at 5.5 C,and good cycle stability,with a capacity of 436 mAh g^(−1)after 1000 cycles at 1 ***,this study proposes a promising solution to improve the energy storage properties of Li-S batteries,which could potentially facilitate the commercialization of Li-S batteries.

关键词： Li-S battery Multifunctional host material Synergy Heterostructures Energy storage properties

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Asymmetric dark matter and Sommerfeld enhancement

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Communications in Theoretical Physics 2024年第08期76卷 120-125页

作者： Sujuan Qiu Hoernisa Iminniyaz Wensheng huo School of Physics Science and Technology Xinjiang University

We study the relic density of asymmetric dark matter with long-range interactions by considering the Sommerfeld effect. We find that the annihilation cross section of asymmetric dark matter is enhanced by the Sommerfeld effect and thus the relic density is decreased. Then we use the Planck data to constrain the asymmetry factor, coupling, and to derive the upper bounds on the dark matter mass in s-wave and p-wave annihilation cases.

关键词： asymmetric dark matter relic density Sommerfeld enhancement

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