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Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in china induced by greenhouse effect

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： zhao zongci and Ding Yihuiacademy of meteorological {4.,state meteorological administration,Beijing 100081,china

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in china .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in china as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in china due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in china, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

Influences of greenhouse effect on agricultural production in china

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Journal of Environmental sciences 1990年第4期2卷 3-10页

作者： Gao Suhua, Ding Yihui, Pan Yaru and zhao zongci academy of meteorological science,state meteorological administration,Beijing {4.,china

An obvious warming in china induced by doubled carbon, dioxide as simulated by the climatic models have been found. It is also noticed that there might be drying or wetting in some parts of china induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs). Agricultural productivity mainly depends on the temperature, rainfall and soil moisture in china. The changes of agricultural productivity in the different parts of china induced by doubled CO2 have been estimated in this paper. It is shown that the greenhouse effect might cause increasing production in some parts of china and decreasing production in other parts of china.

关键词： greenhouse effect agricultural productivity doubled CO2 GCMs climatic productivity force.

Principle and application of three-band gradient difference vegetation index

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science china Earth sciences 2005年第2期48卷 241-249页

作者： TANG Shihao, ZHU Qijiang, WANG Jindi, ZHOU Yuyu & zhao Feng Research Center for Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, china National Satellite meteorological Center, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Research Center for Remote Sensing and GIS Department of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing China National Satellite meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Vegetation index is a simple, effective and experiential measurement of terrestrial vegetation activity, and plays a very important role in qualitative and quantitative remote sensing. Aiming at shortages of current vegetation indices, and starting from the analysis of vegetation spectral characteristics, we put forward a new vegetation index, the three-band gradient difference vegetation index (TGDVI), and established algorithms to inverse crown cover fraction and leaf area index (LAI) from it. Theoretical analysis and model simulation show that TGDVI has high saturation point and the ability to remove the influence of background to some degree, and the explicit functional relation with crown cover fraction and LAI can be established. Moreover, study shows that TGDVI also has the ability to partly remove the influence of thin cloud. Experiment in the Shunyi District, Beijing, china shows that reasonable result can be reached using the vegetation index to retrieve LAI. We also theoretically analyzed the reason why the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) owns the low saturation point, and show that it is determined by the definition of NDVI and the characteristic of vegetation spectra, and is unavoidable to some degree. Meanwhile, through model simulation, we also indicate that the relationship between simple ratio vegetation index (SR) and LAI closes to a piecewise linear one instead of a linear one, which is mainly caused by the influence of background and different change rates of reflectance in red and infrared bands with LAI increasing.

关键词： vegetation index, remote sensing, LAI, crown cover fraction, remote sensing inversion.

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我国风能开发利用及布局潜力评估

太阳能学报 1990年第1期11卷 1-11页

作者：薛桁朱瑞兆国家气象科学研究院

本文通过对全国24.0余个气象站的多年平均风速资料的分析,对照《中国风能区划》结果,进一步找出它们之间的对应关系,大大提高了各区范围的划分精细程度。按照我国风力机型谱给定的参数分别计算了全国700余点大、中、小、微型四种类型风... 详细信息

本文通过对全国24.0余个气象站的多年平均风速资料的分析,对照《中国风能区划》结果,进一步找出它们之间的对应关系,大大提高了各区范围的划分精细程度。按照我国风力机型谱给定的参数分别计算了全国700余点大、中、小、微型四种类型风力机容量系数,并给出了全国各级容量系数分布图。结合风能资源分区及各地近十几年来风力开发实践,分析论证了我国各地区风能开发利用及布局的可能性。

关键词：风能开发利用潜力

Debating about the climate warming

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Progress in Natural science:Materials International 2006年第1期16卷 1-6页

作者： WANG Shaowu1, LUO Yong2, zhao zongci2, DONG Wenje2 and YANG Bao3 (1.Department of Atmospheric sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, china 2. Laboratory for Climate Studies, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china 3. Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering, Chinese academy of sciences, Lanzhou 730000, china) Department of Atmospheric sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.

关键词： climate warming MWP LIA the 20th century.

APPRQACH TO PREDICTION OF OUTBREAK QUANTITYAND PERIOD FOR FIRST-GENERATION ARMYWORMWITH SEA TEMPERATURE

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1984年第3期 349-354页

作者：赵圣菊

So far, no literature has ever reported the prediction of plant diseases and insects outbreak by using sea surface temperature. This article aims at setting up a long-range prediction model of the outbreak quantity and period for the first-generation armyworm by using the surface water temperature of the North Pacific as predictor. Our preliminary study has yielded a desirable result, which adds a new approach of modelling in the prediction of armyworm outbreak.

关键词： APPRQACH TO PREDICTION OF OUTBREAK QUANTITYAND PERIOD FOR FIRST-GENERATION ARMYWORMWITH SEA TEMPERATURE SEA

A STUDY OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION OF THE NUMBER OF FIRST GENERATION ARMYWORM IN LINYI AREA WITH SEA TEMPERATURE DATA

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Chinese science Bulletin 1985年第1期30卷 108-113页

作者：赵圣菊 academy of meteorological science Chinese State Meteorological Administration Beijing

Armyworm is a major injurious insect to grain in our country. There are many factors influencing the happening of armyworm, and its process is complex, so the methods used to predict the happening of armyworm must be diverse. Up to now, we have not seen any report of predicting the happening of armyworm by using sea temperature. In Linyi area, first generation armyworm mainly harms winter wheat in early and middle May, the relations between its happening and elimination depend upon

关键词： winter weather wheat diverse predicting FIRST elimination Correlation autumn fitting

应用地温预报冬小麦产量的积分回归实时预报模式初探

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气象学报 1989年第3期47卷 337-341页

作者：赵四强国家气象局气象科学研究院

土壤是农作物赖以生存的必要环境,种子发芽、根系的形成和发育都是在土壤中进行的,因而农作物生长发育与土壤水热状况的关系最为直接。本文基于这样的认识,以河北省冬小麦为例分析了1961—1978年河北省冬小麦产量与0cm,5cm,10cm,20cm地... 详细信息

土壤是农作物赖以生存的必要环境,种子发芽、根系的形成和发育都是在土壤中进行的,因而农作物生长发育与土壤水热状况的关系最为直接。本文基于这样的认识,以河北省冬小麦为例分析了1961—1978年河北省冬小麦产量与0cm,5cm,10cm,20cm地温的关系,提出一个以冬小麦生育期地温观测资料实时预报冬小麦产量的积分回归模式,并进行了试报。

关键词：地温预报冬小麦产量预报积分回归模式土壤生育期

A STUDY OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION MODELLING OF THE NUMBER AND THE LANDING PERIOD OF MOTHS OF OVERWlNTERING GENERATION IN THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF FIRST GENERATION ARMYWORM

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Chinese science Bulletin 1984年第2期29卷 248-252页

作者：赵圣菊 academy of meteorological sciences State Meteorological Administration Beijing

Armyworm [Mythimna separata (Walker)] is a sudden eating harmful insect, which has to be eliminated in developing agriculture. The valley of the Yangtze River and the Huai River in china is one of outbreaking areas of the first generation of armyworm and it is strategically important to eliminate the armyworm in this area in china.

关键词： FIRST eliminate valley sudden Yangtze eating harmful agriculture insect quantities