检索结果-南通市图书馆

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

气候变化研究进展 2007年第Z1期3卷 82-86页

作者：周天军赵宗慈 LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.

关键词： 20th century surface air temperature China attribution analysis climate warming

Effects of Microphysical Latent Heating on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato(2017)

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 368-386页

作者： Dajun zhao Yubin YU Jinfang YIN Hongxiong XU state Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China meteorological administration Beijing 100081

A 72-h cloud-resolving numerical simulation of Typhoon Hato(2017)is performed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the Advanced Research WRF(ARW)core(V3.8.1)on a horizontal resolution of2 *** enhance the background tropical cyclone structure and intensity,a vortex dynamic initialization scheme with a terrain-filtering algorithm is *** model reproduces reasonably well the track,structure,and intensity change of Typhoon *** specifically,the change trend of simulated maximum wind speed is consistent with that of best-track analysis,and the simulated maximum wind of 49 ms^-1 is close to that(52 ms^-1)of the best-track analysis,indicating that the model has successfully captured the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Hato(2017).Analyses of the model outputs reveal that the total microphysical latent heating of the inner-core region associated with enhanced vertical upward motion reaches its maximum at 9-km height in the upper troposphere during the RI *** dominant microphysical processes with positive latent heat contributions(i.e.,heating effect)are water vapor condensation into cloud water(67.6%),depositional growth of ice(12.9%),and generation(nucleation)of ice from vapor(7.9%).Those with negative latent heat contributions(cooling effect)are evaporation of rain(47.6%),melting of snow(27.7%),and melting of graupel(9.8%).Sensitivity experiments further show that the intensification speed and peak intensity of this typhoon are highly correlated to the dominant heating effect.A significant increase in graupel over 5-10-km height and snow at 10-14-km height in the inner-core region of Typhoon Hato corresponds well with its RI stage,and the latent heating from nucleation and depositional growth is crucial to the RI of simulated Hato.

关键词： microphysical latent heating rapid intensification typhoon budget analysis

Advances in Research on the ITCZ:Mean Position,Model Bias,and Anthropogenic Aerosol Influences

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第5期35卷 729-742页

作者： Hua ZHANG Xinyu MA Shuyun zhao Linghan KONG Department of Atmospheric science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430078 Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 state Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The zonal-mean position of the intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)and its shift in the meridional direction significantly influence both the tropical and even global *** work reviews three aspects of the progress in ITCZ-relevant research:1)the mechanism behind the asymmetry of the ITCZ annual-and zonal-mean positions relative to the equator;2)causes of the double-ITCZ problem(pervasive in climate models)and the efforts to solve it;and 3.the physical mechanisms by which anthropogenic aerosols affect the location of the zonal-mean *** to recent studies,the north-of-the-equator location of the annual-and zonal-mean ITCZ is mainly driven by the cross-equatorial energy transports in the ocean,induced by the Atlantic overturning circulation.A quantitative relationship between the ITCZ shift and the anomalous cross-equatorial energy transport in the atmosphere has been ***,the double-ITCZ problem is still the most common and pronounced bias in tropical precipitation simulations with climate ***,some studies have found that simply correcting the biases in hemispheric energy contrast does not improve the simulation of the ITCZ with climate models;whereas others have found that improving model resolutions and convective parameterizations in climate models,such as entrainment rate,raindroplet re-evaporation,and convection triggering function,can alleviate the double-ITCZ ***,it seems that the double-ITCZ problem in climate models is rooted in the complex physics of the models,which is not yet *** addition,anthropogenic aerosols are suggested to be able to induce meridional shifts of the ITCZ,but through various physical *** aerosols like black carbon influence the ITCZ position basically via instantaneous absorption of shortwave radiation in the atmosphere,whereas scattering aerosols like sulfate affect the location of the ITCZ through the cloud lifetime effect and the subsequent response

关键词： intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) cross-equatorial energy transport double-ITCZ aerosol

Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2022年第7期39卷 1133-1150页

作者： Yin zhao Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Jian LI LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China University of Chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China state Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100049China

Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)is important to local and downstream *** on a weighting method considering model skill and independence,changes in the TP precipitation for near-term(2021-40),mid-term(2041-60)and long-term(2081-2100)under shared socio-economic pathways(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSSP3.7.0,SSP5-8.5)are projected with 27 models from the latest Sixth Phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison *** annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 7.4%-21.6%under five SSPs with a stronger change in the northern TP by the end of the 21st century relative to the present *** in the TP precipitation at seasonal scales show a similar moistening trend to that of annual mean precipitation,except for the drying trend in winter precipitation along the southern edges of the *** generally suggests a slightly stronger increase in TP precipitation with reduced model uncertainty compared to equally-weighted *** effect of weighting exhibits spatial and seasonal ***,weighting leads to a prevailing enhancement of increase in spring precipitation over the ***,the influence of weighting is more remarkable over the northwestern TP regarding the annual,summer and autumn *** between weighted and original MMEs can give us more confidence in a stronger increase in precipitation over the TP,especially for the season of spring and the region of the northwestern TP,which requires additional attention in decision making.

关键词： model weighting precipitation the Tibetan Plateau CMIP6 projection

Contributions of Local and Remote Atmospheric Moisture Fluxes to East China Precipitation Estimated from CRA-40 Reanalysis

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 32-45页

作者： Dan zhao Lixia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU Jingwei LIU state Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101 National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

China meteorological administration(CMA) recently released its 40-yr(1979–2018) global Chinese reanalysis(CRA-40) dataset. To assess performance of the CRA-40 data in quantifying the regional water cycle, contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to precipitation in East China derived from CRA-40 are compared with those derived from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA-5). Observed precipitation and evaporation data are also used for validation. As for mean precipitation, CRA-40 matches the observation better in winter and spring than in summer, with a larger wet bias(1.41 mm day^(-1)) in summer than that in ERA-5(0.97 mm day^(-1)), particularly over South China. The conservation of atmospheric water vapor over East China measured by CRA-40 is comparable to that of ERA-5. Both reanalyses show a dominant role of the remote moisture transport in the East China *** comparison, the annual precipitation induced by the moisture influx from the west of the study domain in CRA-40 is 80 mm less than that in ERA-5. The recycling ratio of annual mean precipitation in CRA-40 is approximately21.1%, slightly larger than that in ERA-5(20.1%). The maximum difference of each hydrological component between the two datasets appears in the summer horizontal moisture influx(3.57 ×10^(7) kg s^(-1);ERA-5 is larger) and winter runoff(1.84 ×10^(7) kg s^(-1);CRA-40 is larger). CRA-40 shows better performance than ERA-5 in capturing the interannual variability of precipitation over East China, as evinced by a higher correlation coefficient with the observation(0.77 versus 0.3.). The trend of summer precipitation since 2011 is better reproduced in CRA-40. Both reanalyses show prominent contribution of the southern moisture influx to the interannual variation of precipitation. This study demonstrates the reliability of CRA-40 in representing the hydrological cycle over East China and provides a useful reference for future application of CRA-40 in water cycle studi

关键词： 40-yr global Chinese reanalysis(CRA-40) precipitation recycling ratio water vapor transport

Insights into measurements of water-soluble ions in PM_(2.5)and their gaseous precursors in Beijing

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Environmental sciences 2021年第4期33卷 123-137页

作者： Jie Su Pusheng zhao Jing Ding Xiang Du Youjun Dou Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China state Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Ambient Air Particulate Matter Pollution Prevention and Control College of Environmental Science and EngineeringNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China

To better understand the characteristics and transformation mechanisms of secondary inorganic aerosols,hourly mass concentrations of water-soluble inorganic ions(WSIIs)in PM_(2.5)and their gaseous precursors were measured online from 2016 to 2018 at an urban site in *** and diurnal variations in water-soluble ions and gaseous precursors were discussed and their gas-particle conversion and partitioning were also examined,some related parameters were ***(TNH_(3.)Rich was also defined to describe the variations of the excess NH_(3.in different *** addition,a sensitivity test was carried out by using ISORROPIA II to outline the driving factors of gas-particle *** Beijing,the relative contribution of nitrate to PM_(2.5)has increased markedly in recent years,especially under polluted *** the four seasons,only a small portion of NO_(2)in the atmosphere was converted into total nitrate(TNO_(3.),and more than 80%of TNO_(3.occurred in the form of nitrate due to the abundant *** concentration of total ammonia(TNH_(3.)was much higher than that required to neutralize acid gases,and most of the TNH_(3.occurred as gaseous NH_(3..The nitrous acid(HONO)concentration was highly correlated with NH_(3.concentration and had increased significantly in Beijing compared with previous *** total chloride(TCl)was the highest in winter,andε(Cl^(-))was more sensitive to variations in the ambient temperature(T)and relative humidity(RH)thanε(NO_(3.^(-)).

关键词： PM_(2.5) Water-soluble ion Gaseous precursor Secondary formation Gas-particle partitioning

基于模态逼近的EOF重构算法重建公元1250年以来北半球地表气温空间格局

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

第四纪研究 2015年第5期35卷 1071-1081页

作者：邢佩陈欣田沁花罗勇赵宗慈黄建斌清华大学地球系统科学研究中心北京100084 北京市气候中心北京100089 全球变化研究协同创新中心北京100875 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081

随着气候场重建数据在揭示气候动力机制以及与数值模式模拟相结合等方面的应用,它在气候变化研究领域中的实用性和重要性已得到广泛认可.因此,关于空间格局重建方法的研究也就显得尤为重要.本文提出了一种新的气候场重建方法,即模态逼... 详细信息

随着气候场重建数据在揭示气候动力机制以及与数值模式模拟相结合等方面的应用,它在气候变化研究领域中的实用性和重要性已得到广泛认可.因此,关于空间格局重建方法的研究也就显得尤为重要.本文提出了一种新的气候场重建方法,即模态逼近的经验正交函数分解方法.该方法利用代用资料与器测资料不同空间模态之间的协调性,采用模态逐次逼近,从而实现对过去无器测资料覆盖的气候场的重建.基于该方法,本文利用549个树轮序列重建了北半球（22.5°N以北）公元1250年以来的地表气温空间场.为验证该方法的有效性,设计了多组验证试验,结果均表明该重建方法能够较好的再现器测数据的年代际尺度变率特征.最终重建结果表明,与已有研究结果相比,该方法重建出的北半球小冰期（1400～1700年）平均气候状态的空间格局特征与基于多组气候模式集合平均在该时段的模拟结果更为接近.另外,为体现重建结果对外强迫的响应特征,本文比较了在不同强度（强、中等、弱）典型火山年的空间格局差异,发现高纬度地区对火山外强迫相比于中低纬地区更加敏感,这与已有的基于数值模式模拟研究的结论基本一致.综合以上讨论,证明了该方法在气候场重建方面的有效性和应用潜力.

关键词：北半球树木年轮气候场重建 EOF 小冰期火山

The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Chinese science Bulletin 2014年第24期59卷 3075-3084页

作者： Biao zhao Fangli Qiao Guansuo Wang First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

The Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)is configured for the region of(15°–41°N,105°–13.°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM(Key *** science&Numerical Modeling,state Oceanic administration)wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast *** numerical experiments are implemented to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature(SST)and the nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv)on the track forecast of all 3. tropical cyclones(TC)in the model domain area during 2008 and *** first experiment employs NCEP FNL(NCEP final analysis)SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of *** second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,*** forecasted track results are compared with Japan {3. Agency’s best track *** 24-h forecast,the averaged TC position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9%compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced by only2%compared to the Control *** the 48-h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced by 10%and6%with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,*** results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting TC track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of TC ***,Bv can improve more on the track of stronger TC.

关键词：热带气旋路径预报垂直混合重点实验室 WRF模式实时预测面波数值试验最佳轨道

Improving Representation of Tropical Cloud Overlap in GCMs Based on Cloud-Resolving Model Data

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of meteorological Research 2018年第2期32卷 233-245页

作者： Xianwen JING Hua ZHANG Masaki SATOH Shuyun zhao Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China state Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Kashiwa 2778564 Japan Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The decorrelation length（Lcf） has been widely used to describe the behavior of vertical overlap of clouds in general circulation models（GCMs）; however, it has been a challenge to associate Lcf with the large-scale meteorological conditions during cloud evolution. This study explored the relationship between Lcf and the strength of atmospheric convection in the tropics based on output from a global cloud-resolving model. Lcf tends to increase with vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere（w500） at locations of ascent, but shows little or no dependency on w500 at locations of descent. A representation of Lcf as a function of vertical velocity is obtained, with a linear regression in ascending regions and a constant value in descending regions. This simple and dynamic-related representation of Lcf leads to a significant improvement in simulation of both cloud cover and radiation fields compared with traditional overlap treatments. This work presents a physically justifiable approach to depicting cloud overlap in the tropics in GCMs.

关键词： cloud overlap decorrelation length cloud-resolving model Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model(NICAM)