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State Vectors—A New Method for Seismicity Analysis

Earthquake Research in China 2004年第3期18卷 263-270页

作者： YinXiangchu YuHuaizhong zhangyongxian CenterforAnalysisandPrediction ChinaEarthquakeAdministrationBeijing100036China LNM InstituteofMechanicsChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing100080China

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe the evolution of a continuum field in its way of coarse-graining. In this paper, the state vector is employed to depict the evolution of seismicity quantitatively, and some interesting results are presented. The authors investigated some famous earthquake cases (e.g., the Haicheng earthquake, the Tangshan earthquake, the west Kunlun Mountains earthquake, etc.) and found that the state vectors evidently change prior to the occurrence of large earthquakes. Thus it is believed that the state vector can be used as a kind of precursor to predict large earthquakes.

关键词： State vector Seismicity Earthquake prediction

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Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

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Earthquake Research in China 2004年第2期18卷 188-199页

作者： PingJianjun zhangyongxian ZhangQingrong LiuSuying ChenJianguo HuangWanfa MiXuemei EarthquakeAdministrationofHebeiProvince Shijiazhuang050021China CenterforAnalysisandPrediction ChinaEarthquakeAdministrationBeijing100036China

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

关键词： The North China region Precursory information magnitude of short-term earthquake anomaly Information field Evolution characteristics Methods of synthetic prediction

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