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Forecasting of Cultivated Area in Egyptian Lands Using a Time Series Model for Sustainable Development

Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2022年第6期12卷 865-876页

作者： zainab shawky el-khalifa Hoda Farouk Zahran Project Management and Sustainable Development Arid Lands Cultivation Research Institute City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Alexandria Egypt Pollution Management Department Environment and Natural Materials Research Institute City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Alexandria Egypt

The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.

关键词： Cultivated Area Forecasting ARIMA Model Egyptian Lands Sustainable Development

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Estimating the Efficiency of Summer Tomatoes Production: A Case Study in Borg el-Arab Area, Egypt

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Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2022年第6期12卷 855-864页

作者： zainab shawky el-khalifa Ahmed Ayoub Hoda Farouk Zahran Project Management and Sustainable Development Department ALCRI City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Egypt Pollution Management Department ENMRI City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Egypt

Tomatoes are one of the most popular and widely consumed vegetable crops worldwide. Egypt is characterized by its tomatoes production, whether for domestic use or export. Summer tomato farmers’ income has recently been reduced due to high production costs, particularly in new lands. As a result, the purpose of this research is to evaluate the economic efficiency of the elements used in summer tomato production in the Borg el-Arab area of Egypt as a new land. According to the findings, the summer tomato crop produced a reasonable profit for small-holding farmers in the study area. However, the elements are being used excessively in the production process, particularly seeds and fertilizers, resulting in increased production costs and failure to achieve economic efficiency of the elements used in the study area.

关键词： Economic Efficiency Summer Tomatoes Production Costs Economic Indicators Borg el-Arab Area New Lands

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Evaluation of Washington Navel Orange Economic Indicators

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Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2022年第4期12卷 481-490页

作者： zainab shawky el-khalifa Mohamed H. elSheikh Hoda Farouk Zahran Ahmed Ayoub Project Management and Sustainable Development Department ALCRI City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Egypt Plant Production Department ALCRI City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Egypt Pollution Management Department ENMRI City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City) New Borg Al-Arab City Egypt

In Egypt, oranges are the most important citrus crops for local consumption or export. It represents approximately 72.2% of the total Egyptian citrus production in 2019/2020. The main cultivated variety of orange is the Washington navel orange and it is more popular because of its delicious taste, nutrition, and its seedless besides being rich in vitamin C. Washington navel orange is susceptible to fruit cracking, and it is a common physiological disorder that takes place during fruit development. This work aims to investigate the negative effect of fruit cracking in reducing the yield and quality of Washington navel orange produced in Egypt by studying major economic indicators and estimating an economical evaluation of using treatment of Washington navel orange during the period time of 2007/2008 until 2019/2020. Results showed that fruit areas and production of Washington navel orange represented about 52.9% and 53.2% of fruit areas and production of orange during the study period. However, the yield was unstable with a significant annual growth rate of about 1.1%. Also, the last mentioned treatment achieved a high price for farmers by about 5.1% and total revenue of about 3.2% during the study period. Nowadays, Egypt has become the largest exporter of oranges in the world within the last year and the achieved earnings reached $661 million in 2019/2020. In addition, results showed that evaluation of using a treatment to reduce the rate of Washington navel orange cracking was economical to be applied.

关键词： Washington Navel Oranges Economic Indicators Fruit Cracking Revenue

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