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A novel approach in predicting non-stationary time series by combining external forces

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Science Bulletin 2011年第Z2期 3053-3056页

作者： WANG GeLi 1* , YANG PeiCai 1 , BIAN JianChun 1 & zhou xiuji 2.3 1 Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Glotal Environment Observation, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, {2. academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.7}, beijing 100081, china 3 state key Laboratory of {12. weather, beijing 100081, china

In this paper, we investigate a novel technique that reconstructs the observed time series and incorporates driving forces. Furthermore, to illustrate and test the technique, we consider a couple of predictive experiments using ideal time series provided by the logistic and Lorenz systems with specific driving forces. The preliminary results show this approach can improve prediction proficiency to some extent, and the external forces play a similar role to that of state variables.

关键词： driving force non-stationary system climate prediction time series prediction

Vertical dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of urban lower boundary layer and its relationship with aerosol concentration over beijing

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第Z2期48卷 25-37页

作者： zhou Mingyu, YAO Wenqing, XU Xiangde & YU Haiqing state {2. Laboratory on severe weather, chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, beijing 100081, china National meteorological Center, beijing 100081, china state key Laboratory on {2. weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Marine Environment Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China state key Laboratory on {2. weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China

By utilizing observational data from a 32. m tower of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), chinese academy of {2. (CAS) on March 19-2., 2.01 and August 11-2., 2.03, a comprehensive study was conducted on the vertical dynamical and thermodynamic characteristics of the urban lower boundary layer (ULBL) and its relationship with aerosol concentration over beijing. Firstly, a comparative analysis was made on the gradient data (wind, temperature and humidity), ultrasonic data (atmospheric turbulences) and air-quality observations at different tower heights (47, 12. and 2.0 m). Secondly, a diagnosis was made to reveal the major features of normalized variances of velocity and temperature, turbulence kinetic energy as well as their relationship with aerosol concentrations. Furthermore, the characteristics of the ULBL vertical structure and the TSP concentration/distribution variations during a sand/dust weather process were also analyzed. The outcome of the study showed that under unstable stratification, the normalized variances of velocity (σu/u*, σv/u*, σw/u*) and temperature (σT/T*) at 47 and 12. m heights fit the Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) framework and the fitting formulas were given out accordingly. According to the stratification parameter (z′/L), the stable ULBL could be divided into 2.zones. With z′/L0.1 and the normalized velocity variances tended to increase along with higher stability, but it remained constant for normalized temperature variances. At daytime, the near-surface layer includes two heights of 47 and 12. m, while 2.0 m has been above it. The ULBL analysis in conjunction with a sand/dust weather process in beijing in March 2.01 indicated that the maximum concentration of Total Suspended Particulates (TSP) at 32. m reached 913.3 μg/m3 and the particles were transported from the upper to lower ULBL, which was apparently rela

关键词： urban boundary layer, turbulence, aerosol concentration, sand/dust weather.

The characteristics and regularities of the climate change over the past millennium in china

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Science Bulletin 2011年第Z2期 2985-2985页

作者： zhou xiuji {2. key Laboratory of severe weather, chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china

Research on global climate change has been at the frontier of the contemporary sciences. Discussion and debate about climate warming in the recent century has attracted the attention of the world. Debate has focused on whether the greenhouse effect produced by human activities is a major factor responsible for modern climate warming and whether the warming trend will persist in the future.

关键词： over

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海南岛附近区域热带气旋低层风场的变化特征

气候与环境研究 2018年第3期23卷 299-310页

作者：薛霖李英王丙兰周荣卫中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 南京信息工程大学南京210044 中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京100081

利用1979~2.15年JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)最佳路径资料(2.01~2.15年资料用于台风风圈结构分析)及ERA-interim(0.5°×0.5°)再分析数据,统计分析我国海南岛附近区域(15.5°N^2..5°N,106°E^116°E)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)低层风场的变化特征。结果表明:(1)年均5.5个TC于4~12.主要以西偏北路径进入该区域,其中海南岛东南侧海域TC出现频率最高且强TC比例最多,而岛西北区域出现频率最低,强TC比例最少。(2.TC中心位于海南岛不同方位时,其外围低层风场分布具有不同的非对称特征,且大风出现比率也各有差异;TC中心位于海南岛上时出现大风比率最高,位于岛南侧时次之,位于岛北侧时最小。(3)该区域TC平均最大风速半径(RMW)为58.3 km;TC位于岛上时RMW最大,而位于岛西南侧最小。(4)TC近中心最大风速由海上向陆地急剧减小,其高值中心主要位于雷州半岛东侧及西侧海域。(5)研究区域内TC的34节风圈半径在TC环流的东侧大而西侧小,强TC大而弱TC小。(6)不同区域TC变形程度有所差异。平均而言,位于岛西南侧TC变形最大而位于岛东南侧时变形最小。

关键词：热带气旋低层风场风圈半径海南岛

Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2.2. on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science china Earth sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan zhou Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO state key Laboratory of {2. weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2.2. on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2.2. being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N2.6 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2.2. CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2.2. CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2.2.-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 2.3 years(142.613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2.2.-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2.2.-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2.2. on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

Data Assimilation of Dust Aerosol Observations for CUACE/Dust Forecasting System

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Data Assimilation of Dust Aerosol Observations for CUACE/Dus...

Simulation of the Ecosystem Productivity Responses to Aerosol Diffuse Radiation Fertilization Effects over the Pan-Arctic during 2.01–19

第三届中日韩气象学术会议

作者： T.Niu~1 S.L.Gong~(2.1) G.F.Zhu~3 H.L.Liu~1 X.Q.Hu~4 C.H.zhou~1 Y.Q.Wang~1 ~1Center for Atmosphere Watch & Services(CAWAS)chinese {2. of meteorological sciences china meteorological Administration(CMA) beijing 100081 china ~2.ir Quality Research Division Science & Technology Branch Environment Canada 4905 Dufferin Street Toronto Ontario M3H 5T4 Canada ~3state key Laboratory of {12. weather chinese academy of meteorological sciences china meteorological Administration(CMA) beijing 100081 china ~4National Satellite meteorological Center china meteorological Administration(NSMC/CMA) beijing 100081 china

＜正＞A data assimilation system （DAS） was developed for the chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment-Dust （CUACE/Dust） forecast system and applied in the operational forecasts of sand and dust storm （SDS） in spring *** system is based on a three dimensional variational method （3D-Var） and uses extensively the measurements of surface visibility and dust loading retrieval from the chinese geostationary satellite *** results show that a major improvement to the capability of CUACE/Dust in forecasting the short-term variability in the spatial distribution and intensity of dust concentrations has been achieved,especially in those areas far from the source *** seasonal mean Threat Score （TS） over the East Asia in spring 2.06 increased from 0.2. to 0.31 by using the data assimilation system, a 41% *** assimilation results usually agree with the dust loading retrieved from FY-2. and visibility distribution from surface {2. stations, which indicates that the 3D-Var method is very powerful for the unification of observation and numerical modeling results.

关键词： data assimilation 3D-Var method visibility satellite dust loading

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第1期41卷 84-96页

作者： Zhiding ZHANG Xu YUE Hao zhou Jun ZHU Yadong LEI Chenguang TIAN Jiangsu key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&Technology(NUIST)Nanjing 210044China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029China University of chinese academy of {2. Beijing 100049China state key Laboratory of {2. weather&key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower *** have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less ***,we perform regional simulations at 0.2.×0.2.using a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during *** show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,*** all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.2. Pg C(1.2.%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic *** aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.02.% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the *** contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle *** trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2.07 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols *** affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.

关键词： diffuse radiation fertilization effects anthropogenic aerosols natural aerosols pan-Arctic net primary productivity

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第28期56卷 3003-3011页

作者： zhou xiuji ZHAO Ping LIU Ge zhou TianJun state key Laboratory of {2. weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National meteorological Information Centre Beijing 100081 China The state key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric {2. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern china was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North china and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 192.s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North china. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in china has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trend

关键词：夏季风环流东亚季风区中世纪暖期夏季降水百年尺度小冰期夏季热特征

Transport of Asian surface pollutants to the global stratosphere from the Tibetan Plateau region during the Asian summer monsoon

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National Science Review 2020年第3期7卷 516-533页

作者： Jianchun Bian Dan Li Zhixuan Bai Qian Li Daren Lyu xiuji zhou key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences state key Laboratory of {2. weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration

Due to its surrounding strong and deep Asian summer monsoon(ASM) circulation and active surface pollutant emissions, surface pollutants are transported to the stratosphere from the Tibetan Plateau region,which may have critical impacts on global climate through chemical, microphysical and radiative *** article reviews major recent advances in research regarding troposphere–stratosphere transport from the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Since the discovery of the total ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau in summer from satellite observations in the early 1990 s, new satellite-borne instruments have become operational and have provided significant new information on atmospheric composition. In addition, in situ measurements and model simulations are used to investigate deep convection and the ASM anticyclone,surface sources and pathways, atmospheric chemical transformations and the impact on global climate. Also challenges are discussed for further understanding critical questions on microphysics and microchemistry in clouds during the pathway to the global stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau atmospheric composition troposphere–stratosphere transport deep convection Asian summer monsoon