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Different Warming Patterns of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Projected by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 under RCP8.5

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第2期8卷 82-87页

作者： ZHANG Li-Xia zhou tian-jun State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS)

The different patterns of SST changes under the ＋8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） projected by the latest two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2; grid-point version 2 and spectral version 2, respectively）, and the potential mecha- nisms for their formation are studied in this paper. The results show that, although both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 project global warming patterns, FGOALS-g2 （FGOALS-s2） projects a La Nifia-like （an E1 Nifio-like） mean warming pattern with weakest （strongest） warming over the central （eastern） equatorial Pacific for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under RCP8.5. A mixed layer heat budget analysis shows that the projected tropical Pacific Ocean warming in both models is primarily caused by atmos- pheric forcing. The main differences in the heating terms contributing to the SST changes between the two models are seen in the downward longwave radiation and ocean forcing. The minimum SST warming over the equatorial Pacific in FGOALS-g2 is attributed to the local minimum heating of downward longwave radiation and maximum cooling of ocean forcing. In contrast, the maximum SST warming over the equatorial Pacific in FGOALS-s2 is due to the maximum warming of downward longwave radia- tion, and the contribution of ocean forcing is minor. The minimum SST warming over the equatorial Pacific in FGOALS-g2 emerges around the 2050s, before when the SST over the equatorial Pacific is warmer than that over the extra-equatorial Pacific. In FGOALS-s2, the SST dif- ference shows a continuous increasing trend for 2006- 2100. Further examination of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes is needed to reveal the process responsible for the longwave radiation and ocean forcing difference between the two models.

关键词： climate model SST projection heat budget

Assessing the Quality of Regional Ocean Reanalysis Data from ENSO Signals

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第1期5卷 55-61页

作者： WANG Lu zhou tian-jun State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for ＂the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean （AIPO）＂ has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the AIPO reanalysis, including SST, sea surface height （SSH）, and subsurface ocean temperature and currents, are compared with those of Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature （HadlSST） data set and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） reanalysis data. Both the spatial pattern and the characteristics of evolution of the ENSO-related ocean temperature anomalies are well reproduced by the AIPO reanalysis data. The physical processes proposed to explain the life cycle of ENSO, including the delayed oscillator mechanism, recharge-discharge mechanism, and the zonal advection feedback, are reasonably represented in this dataset. However, the westward Rossby wave signal in 1992 is not obvious in the AIPO data, and the magnitude of the heat content anomalies is different from that of the SODA data. The reason for the discrepancies may lie in the different mod- els and methods for data assimilation and differences in wind stress forcing. The results demonstrate the high reliability of the AIPO reanalysis data in describing ENSO signals, implying its potential application value in ENSO- related studies.

关键词： reanalysis data ENSO ocean assimilation AIPO data

Climate Change in China Congruent with the Linear Trends of the Annular Modes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2008年第1期1卷 1-7页

作者： zhou tian-jun LI Jian LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China LaSW Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences （CAMS） Beijing 100081 China

The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. Results show that the winter hemisphere annular mode has closer connection to Chinese climate than the summer one, e.g., the wetting JJA (june-July-August) rainfall trend along the Yangtze River valley and the associated temperature trends are significantly linearly congruent with the trend of the southern annular mode, while the JFM (January-February-March) climate trends are closely linked to the northern annular mode. The seasonal differences of a meridional wave-train-like chain across the equatorial Pacific associated with the annular modes are responsible for the seasonal-dependent connections to Chinese climate.

关键词： Chinese climate trend annular modes

Interdecadal and Interannnual Variabilities of the Antarctic Oscillation Simulated by CAM3

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第6期7卷 515-520页

作者： XUE Feng SUN Dan zhou tian-jun The International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences (ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Meteorological Bureau

Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature(SST) forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3(CAM3), the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Antarctic oscillation(AAO) during austral summer were studied. It was found that the interannual variability is mainly driven by SST forcing. On the other hand, atmospheric radiative forcing plays a major role in the interdecadal variability. A cooling trend was found in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) when atmospheric radiative forcing was specified in the model. This cooling trend tended to enhance the temperature gradient between the mid and high latitudes in the SH, inducing a transition of the AAO from a negative to a positive phase on the interdecadal timescale. The cooling trend was also partly weakened by the SST forcing, leading to a better simulation compared with the purely atmospheric radiative forcing run. Therefore, SST forcing cannot be ignored, although it is not as important as atmospheric radiative forcing.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation interannual variability interdecadal variability

Performance evaluation of new echo state networks based on complex network

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The Journal of China Universities of Posts and Telecommunications 2012年第1期19卷 87-93页

作者： LIU Xiang CUI Hong-yan zhou tian-jun CHEN Jian-ya Key Laboratory of Network System Architecture and Convergence Beijing University of Posts and TelecommtmicationsBeijing 100876China

Recently, echo state networks （ESN） have aroused a lot of interest in their nonlinear dynamic system modeling capabilities. In a classical ESN, its dynamic reservoir （DR） has a sparse and random topology, but the performance of ESN with its DR taking another kind of topology is still unknown. So based on complex network theory, three new ESNs are proposed and investigated in this paper. The small-world topology, scale-free topology and the mixed topology of small-world effect and scale-free feature are considered in these new ESNs. We studied the relationship between DR architecture and prediction capability. In our simulation experiments, we used two widely used time series to test the prediction performance among the new ESNs and classical ESN, and used the independent identically distributed （i.i.d） time series to analyze the short-term memory （STM） capability. We answer the following questions： What are the differences of these ESNs in the prediction performance？ Can the spectral radius of the internal weights matrix be wider？ What is the short-term memory capability？ The experimental results show that the proposed new ESNs have better prediction performance, wider spectral radius and almost the same STM capacity as classical ESN＇s.

关键词： ESN complex network time series prediction short-term memory capacity

Implementation of the Future Earth programme in China:Chinese scientists at the forefront

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2015年第2期6卷 81-83页

作者： zhou tian-jun Chinese National Committee for Future Earth LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

As a 10-year international research programme jointly initiated by ICSU(International Council for Science),ISSC(International Social Science Council)and others,Future Earth aims to provide critical knowledge required for societies to face the challenges posed by global environmental change and to identify opportunities for a transition to global sustainability(FE,2013).The launching of Future Earth is the outcome of step change in global environment change research and funding strategy and meet the demands for connecting

关键词： programme funding launching jointly posed initiate

Is the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection pattern excited by the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation?

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第6期9卷 451-457页

作者： LIN Jian-She WU Bo zhou tian-jun The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Joint Center for Global Change Studies BeijingChina

The interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection （ID-CGT） pattern is the dominant circulation mode over the NH during boreal summer on the interdecadal time scale. Its temporal evolution is synchronous with that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. In this study, through analyzing the results of sensitivity experiments using five AGCMs driven by specified AMO-related SST anomalies （SSTAs） in the North Atlantic, the authors investigate whether the ID-CGT is excited by the AMO. Two out of the five models simulate the barotropic stationary wave pattern located along the westerly jet, suggesting that the ID-CGT pattern should be excited, at least partially, by the AMO- related SSTAs. Model results suggest that the ID-CGT pattern plays a role in linking the AMO and NH summer land SAT perturbations on the interdecadal time scale.

关键词： Interdecadal circumglobalteleconnection AtlanticMultidecadal Oscillation AGCMs

ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 54-62页

作者： SUN Qian WU Bo zhou tian-jun YAN Zi-Xiang College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina Leshan Central Station of Environment Monitoring LeshanChina LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches--anomaly and full-field initializations--in ENSO predictions conducted using the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （lAP）. IAP-DecPreS is composed of the FGOALS-s2 coupled general circulation model and a newly developed ocean data assimilation scheme called＇ensemble optimal interpolation-incremental analysis update＇（EnOI-IAU）. It was found that, for IAP-DecPreS, the hindcast runs using the anomaly initialization have higher predictive skills for both conventional ENSO and El Nino Modoki, as compared to using the full-field initialization. The anomaly hindcasts can predict super El Nino/La Nina 10 months in advance and have good skill for most moderate and weak ENSO events about 4-7 months in *** predictive skill of the anomaly hindcasts for El Nino Modoki is close to that for conventional ENSO. On the other hand, the anomaly hindcasts at 1- and 4-month lead time can reproduce the major features of large-scale patterns of sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies during conventional ENSO and El Nino Modoki winter.

关键词： Near-term climate predictionsystem ENSO prediction anomaly initialization full-field initialization coupledgeneral circulation model

Future Earth activities in China: Towards a national sustainable development

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2015年第2期6卷 84-91页

作者： WANG Chuan-Yi zhou tian-jun LIN Zheng JIN Nan LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Chinese National Committee for Future Earth Editorial Division Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

This article provides an overview to Future Earth activities carried out by the Chinese National Committee for Future Earth(CNC-FE).Future Earth is an international research programme which aims to provide critical knowledge to face the challenges posed by global environmental change and to identify opportunities for a transition to global ***-FE is the main body devoted to implementing the Future Earth programme in *** Future Earth themes and national science needs,CNC-FE has identified 14 priority *** its establishment,it has conducted an array of activities to fulfill its missions,including implementing projects,convening international meetings,translating and publishing Future Earth and CNC-FE related documents and promoting Future Earth and CNC-FE on various outreach ***-FE closely follows Future Earth's development and meanwhile integrates its themes with Chinese *** is hoped that implementing Future Earth in China can boost global environmental change including climate change research in China and also have positive implications for developing countries who are trying to adapt to climate change and address the challenges for the national sustainable development.

关键词： Future Earth Global sustainability research The Ch