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Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU botao zhou Huijun WANG Dapeng ZHANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological *** study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought *** shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern *** investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

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Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 15-22页

作者： Weikai Jia botao zhou Ziyi Song Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动(AO)与长江流域夏季降水(YRP)关系的模拟能力.结果表明, 4个模式(ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM))能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO-YRP关系的减弱. 1980-1998年,当春季AO位于正位相时,夏季东亚急流北移,长江流域为异常下沉运动,同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱,减少向长江流域的水汽输送,结果导致降水减少. 1999-2014年,上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著,从而减弱AO-YRP的关系.利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015-2100年期间AO-YRP的关系.两者在2015-2040年为显著负相关关系,随后再次减弱.

关键词：北极涛动降水长江流域年代际变化 CMIP6

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Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第7期11卷 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song botao zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

关键词： global warming Meiyu–Baiu extremes human activity culture and civilization

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Distinct Interannual Variability and Physical Mechanisms of Snowfall Frequency over the Eurasian Continent during Autumn and Winter

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1969-1983,I0011-I0013页

作者： Siyu zhou Bo SUN* Huijun WANG Yi ZHENG Jiarui CAI Huixin LI botao zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519080China Nansen Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical *** first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North *** sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the *** increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall *** contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during *** the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit *** NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.

关键词： snowfall frequency Eurasian continent sea ice atmospheric circulation interannual variability Indian Ocean dipole

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Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 25-31页

作者： Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling Li Huixin Li botao zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory ZhuhaiChina Nansen Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持... 详细信息

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词：复合型干旱事件国际耦合模式比较计划人口暴露度 GDP暴露度相对贡献

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Westward extension of summer atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific after the 1990s

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 1-6页

作者： Guowa Tang Tingting Han botao zhou Qiushi Zhang School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Heilongjiang Sub-Bureau of Northeast Air Traffic Management Bureau HarbinChina

本文研究了20世纪90年代前后夏季北太平洋大气环流(NPcirculation)向西扩展,并探讨了其可能的原因.结果表明,在1961-1983年期间NP中心主要位于东北太平洋,而在1994-2016年期间NP中心发生西移,至北太平洋中部进一步分析指出,90年代以后N... 详细信息

本文研究了20世纪90年代前后夏季北太平洋大气环流(NPcirculation)向西扩展,并探讨了其可能的原因.结果表明,在1961-1983年期间NP中心主要位于东北太平洋,而在1994-2016年期间NP中心发生西移,至北太平洋中部进一步分析指出,90年代以后NP活动中心的西移和春季中纬度北太平洋海温(SST_NP)与NP关系的加强有关.春季SST_NP异常通过引起后期夏季北太平洋中部地表热通量(即感热通量和潜热通量)和垂直运动异常,有利于NP活动中心向西移动,此外,20世纪90年代以后,北太平洋中部海平面气压的年际变率增加,这可能是NP向西扩展的另一原因。

关键词：大气环流北太平洋西移海表面温度年际变率

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Linkage between winter sea surface temperature east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possible physical mechanism

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第17期56卷 1821-1827页

作者： zhou botao National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possibly related physical mechanism were investigated using observation *** is found that winter SST east of Australia is correlated positively to summer precipitation in the Yangtze River *** the SST east of Australia becomes warmer in winter,the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian westerly jet tend to shift southward the following summer,concurrent with low-level southwesterly anomalies over eastern *** conditions favor precipitation increase in the Yangtze River valley,whereas the opposite conditions favor precipitation *** influence of winter SST east of Australia on East Asian summer atmospheric circulations may occur in two ***,by an anomalous SST signal east of Australia in winter that persists through the following summer,thus affecting East Asian atmospheric circulations via the inter-hemispheric ***,when the SST east of Australia is warmer in winter,higher SST appears simultaneously in the southwest Indian Ocean and subsequently develops eastward by local air-sea *** a result,the SST in the Maritime Continent increases in summer,which may lead to an anomalous change in East Asian summer atmospheric circulations through its impact on convection.

关键词：夏季降水澳大利亚长江流域物理机制海面温度冬季东亚大气环流西太平洋副热带高压

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影响华北重度和轻度高温热浪的大气背景场差异分析

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大气科学学报 2024年第1期47卷 124-135页

作者：靳鑫桐周波涛谢文欣胡跃鹏范怡南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室江苏南京210044

首先识别了1961—2020年华北地区的高温热浪事件,在此基础上筛选出重度和轻度高温热浪事件多发年份,对比分析了重度和轻度高温热浪事件的时空变化特征以及大气背景差异。结果表明,重度和轻度高温热浪发生频次的高值区分别位于华北北部... 详细信息

首先识别了1961—2020年华北地区的高温热浪事件,在此基础上筛选出重度和轻度高温热浪事件多发年份,对比分析了重度和轻度高温热浪事件的时空变化特征以及大气背景差异。结果表明,重度和轻度高温热浪发生频次的高值区分别位于华北北部和中南部。自20世纪60年代以来,华北重度和轻度高温热浪事件频次均呈现显著的增长趋势,其中重度高温热浪事件频次的增加更为明显。对应华北重度高温热浪事件多发,东亚中纬度地区为准相当正压结构的异常反气旋性环流控制,华北地区位于异常反气旋性环流的东南部。在该异常环流背景下,华北地区上空呈现异常下沉运动、云量偏少、大气整体偏干。在异常下沉绝热增温的同时,晴朗干燥的配置有利于更多的太阳辐射到达地表,相应的向上长波辐射和感热通量增加,进一步加热近地表大气。在华北轻度高温热浪事件高发年,华北位于异常反气旋(东南侧)和气旋(西北侧)性环流之间,主要受异常西南风控制。异常西南风向华北输送暖平流加热大气的同时,增加了华北上空的水汽。偏多的水汽捕获更多的长波辐射并反射至地表,利于气温升高。

关键词：重度高温热浪轻度高温热浪华北大气背景动力水汽条件热力条件

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Influences of the 11-yr Sunspot Cycle and Polar Vortex Oscillation on Observed Winter Temperature Variations in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第3期32卷 367-379页

作者： Chunhui LU botao zhou Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

Using the NCEP-2 reanalysis data in 1979-2015, we analyze variations in the coupled stratosphere-troposphere system and attribute them to the polar vortex oscillation(PVO) and the 11-yr sunspot cycle(SC). Subsequently, influences of PVO and SC on the near-ground temperature and extreme temperatures are diagnosed based on observations at 2419 surface stations in China over the same period. Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis of geopotential height(GH) anomalies indicates that the first and second EOF modes together can explain nearly 50% of the total variance and they have different driving sources, active periods, and regions. The first EOF mode mainly represents variation characteristics of the polar vortex, and its active periods appear in late winter. It is found that a weakened polar vortex(larger amplitude in the positive time series of the first mode) corresponds to lower daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and more frequent cold nights and days. This cooling effect mainly occur in northeastern China. The second EOF mode is closely related to the SC, and its major active periods are late autumn and early winter. The results reveal that strong solar activity(larger amplitude in the positive time series of the second mode) leads to cooling effects in northern China through accelerating seasonal transformation of the stratospheric circulation and enhancing intensity of the subtropical westerly jet in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The near-ground temperature is lower than usual, especially for daily mean and minimum temperatures. The number of warm nights and days is significantly reduced, and cold nights and days become more frequent. Therefore,the first and second EOF mode time series of GH anomalies can be used as indices of PVO and solar activity, respectively; and can provide indications of winter cooling processes in China.

关键词： 11-yr sunspot cycle polar vortex oscillation extreme temperature indices cooling process

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基于CMIP6模式对青藏高原平均降水的模拟评估与预估

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南京大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年第2期60卷 301-316页

作者：季玉枝杨小玲周波涛徐昕王元中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室南京大学大气科学学院南京210023 江西信息应用职业技术学院南昌330043 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京信息工程大学南京210044

青藏高原降水对区域气候和水循环有着重要影响,在全球变暖的大背景下,研究青藏高原的降水分布及趋势变化十分必要.以1995-2014年青藏高原观测降水为基准态,评估第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中20个模式对青藏高原年和季节平均降水... 详细信息

青藏高原降水对区域气候和水循环有着重要影响,在全球变暖的大背景下,研究青藏高原的降水分布及趋势变化十分必要.以1995-2014年青藏高原观测降水为基准态,评估第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中20个模式对青藏高原年和季节平均降水的模拟能力.结果表明,CMIP6模式能够较好地模拟出青藏高原降水从东南向西北减少的空间分布特征,但模式模拟仍存在湿偏差,平均降水偏差达到1.3 mm·d^(-1).而且对于冬季模拟降水,模式之间存在较大的差异,模式标准差在3 mm·d^(-1)以上.在共享社会经济路径SSP5-8.5和SSP2-4.5情景下,基于20个模式的模式集合(AMME)与择优选取的五个模式组成的集合(BMME)对中期(2045-2065年)和长期(2081-2100年)平均降水的未来预估,整体上青藏高原未来降水将有所增加,SSP5-8.5情景增幅大于SSP2-4.5,长期降水增幅大于中期.中期降水变化与长期分布一致,除了冬季和秋季南部地区、夏季东部地区表现为降水减少之外,其他大部分地区表现为全年和季节平均降水量的增加.BMME预估全年和季节平均降水增幅往往大于AMME.未来年平均降水的增加主要来源于春季降水的增加.

关键词： CMIP6模式青藏高原平均降水模式评估预估

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