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Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： zhou botao 1,2.& cui xuan 3 1 national climate center,{2.,Beijing 100081,china 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 10002.,china 3 national meteorological center,{2.,Beijing 100081,china national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national meteorological {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第12期55卷 1193-1198页

作者： zhou botao ZHAO Ping {2. xuan national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China national meteorological Information {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China national meteorological {2. China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific during the summertime (June-August) is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of observed *** is found that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the North Pacific SST,with the correlation coefficient being 0.58 on the interannual timescale during the period 1954-2.03,which suggests that a strong (weak) APO corresponds to high (low) SST in the North *** in-phase relationship is well supported by the dynamic and thermal conditions in association with the APO *** APO is in the positive phase,the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere is weakened,and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevails in the low-troposphere over the North ***,the negative anomaly of the sensible and latent heat fluxes is predominated in the North Pacific,indicating ocean gets heat flux from the ***,warm water advection northward is strengthened in the North *** of these provide beneficial conditions to warm the North Pacific SST,and thus the SST is increased in this region,and vice versa.

关键词：北太平洋海表温度亚洲涛动太平洋海温年际时间尺度潜热通量海表面温度

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2014年第5期57卷 2148-2155页

作者： zhou botao {2. xuan national climate {2. China Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2.09, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.

关键词： tropical cyclone frequency North Atlantic Oscillation interdecadal change wave activity flux atmospheric circulation