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西藏高寒草地物种多样性和生产力的环境驱动机制

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生态学报 2024年第14期44卷 6254-6264页

作者：匡苗苗周广胜周梦子郑州大学地球科学与技术学院郑州450001 中国气象科学研究院郑州大学生态气象联合实验室郑州450001 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081

全球变暖影响物种多样性和生产力及其关系。关于全球和区域的物种多样性与生产力关系已有许多研究,但气候变暖背景下西藏高寒草地物种多样性与生产力的关系及其环境驱动机制研究仍然很少。基于西藏高寒草地实测的35个样点调查数据,利用... 详细信息

全球变暖影响物种多样性和生产力及其关系。关于全球和区域的物种多样性与生产力关系已有许多研究,但气候变暖背景下西藏高寒草地物种多样性与生产力的关系及其环境驱动机制研究仍然很少。基于西藏高寒草地实测的35个样点调查数据,利用回归分析、Pearson相关性分析、方差分解和结构方程模型等方法,探究了物种多样性和生产力的关系及其影响机制。研究发现:(1)高寒草地的物种丰富度指数和香农-威纳指数与地上植被净初级生产力(ANPP)呈显著正相关关系,且ANPP对物种丰富度指数的变化更为敏感;(2)物种丰富度指数与经度、土壤有效氮、土壤有效磷、年降水量呈显著正相关;Shannon-Wiener指数与海拔和纬度呈显著负相关,与年均温度呈显著正相关;ANPP与经度、土壤有效氮、年降水量和年均温度呈显著正相关,与海拔、纬度和土壤有效钾呈显著负相关;(3)地理因子、土壤养分和气候因子的交互作用对物种丰富度指数和ANPP的贡献率最大,分别为10.99%和32.91%,地理因子和气候因子的交互作用对Shannon-Wiener指数的贡献率最大,为13.61%;(4)地理因子通过调控土壤养分和气候因子间接影响物种多样性和ANPP,土壤养分和气候因子均直接影响物种多样性和ANPP。研究结果揭示了环境因子对物种多样性和生产力的综合调控机制,为西藏高寒草地生态系统科学应对气候变化提供了依据。

关键词：高寒草地生产力物种多样性地理因子土壤养分气候因子

Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northeastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 889-897页

作者： zhou mengzi WANG Huijun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.

关键词： northeastern China statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty

Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

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Science Bulletin 2019年第10期64卷 690-697页

作者： Qijin He Guangsheng zhou Xiaomin Lü mengzi zhou College of Resources and Environmental Sciences China Agricultural University Beijing 100193 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5℃(GW1.5) and 2.0℃(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971- 2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.

关键词： Summer maize Cultivation distribution Climatic suitability 1.5°C global warming 2.0°C global warming

A New Prediction Model for Grain Yield in Northeast China Based on Spring North Atlantic Oscillation and Late-Winter Bering Sea Ice Cover

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第2期31卷 409-419页

作者： mengzi zhou Huijun WANG Zhiguo HUO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Accurate estimations of grain output in the agriculturally important region of Northeast China are of great strategic significance for guaranteeing food *** prediction models for maize and rice yields are built in this paper based on the spring North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Bering Sea ice cover *** year-to-year increment is first forecasted and then the original yield value is obtained by adding the historical yield of the previous *** multivariate linear prediction model of maize shows good predictive ability,with a low normalized root-mean-square error（NRMSE）of 13.9%,and the simulated yield accounts for 81%of the total variance of the *** improve the performance of the multivariate linear model,a combined forecasting model of rice is built by considering the weight of the *** NRMSE of the model is 12.9%and the predicted rice yield explains 71%of the total *** corresponding cross-validation test and independent samples test further demonstrate the efficiency of the *** is inferred that the statistical models established here by applying year-to-year increment approach could make rational prediction for the maize and rice yield in Northeast China before *** present study may shed new light on yield prediction in advance by use of antecedent large-scale climate signals adequately.

关键词： crop yield linear forecasting model spring North Atlantic Oscillation index Bering Sea ice cover index year-to-year increment

Projection of Heat Injury to Single-Cropping Rice in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China under Future Global Warming Scenarios

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第2期33卷 363-374页

作者： Xiaomin LYU Guangsheng zhou mengzi zhou Li zhou Yuhe JI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

Based on simulation results from the 16 CMIP5 model runs under three Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in combination with the recent five years of growth-stage data from agrometeorological observation stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, changes in heat injury and spatial distribution patterns of single-cropping rice in China during the early(2016–35), middle(2046–65), and late(2080–99) 21 st century were projected by using quantitative estimations. Relative to the reference period(1986–2005), the occurrence probabilities of heat injury to single-cropping rice under different RCP scenarios increased significantly, showing a trend of mild > moderate > severe. The occurrence probabilities increased with time and predicted emissions, especially the average and maximum occurrence probabilities, which were ～48% and ～80%,respectively, in the late 21 st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The spatial patterns of the occurrence probabilities at each level of heat injury to single-cropping rice did not change, remaining high in the middle planting region and low in the east. The high-value areas were mainly in central Anhui and southeastern Hubei provinces, and the areas extended to the northwest and northeast of the cultivation area over time. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total area of heat injury to single-cropping rice showed a significant linear increasing trend of 7.4 × 10~3, 19.9× 10~3, and 35.3 × 10~3 ha yr^(–1), respectively, from 2016 to 2099, and the areas of heat injury were greatest in the late21 st century, accounting for ～25%, ～40%, and ～59% of the cultivation area.

关键词： projection single-cropping rice heat injury climate change China

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中国陆地生态系统增汇潜力研究展望

科学通报 2022年第31期67卷 3625-3632页

作者：周广胜周梦子周莉汲玉河中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 河北固城农业气象国家野外科学观测研究站保定072656 中国气象科学研究院与郑州大学生态气象联合实验室郑州450001

碳达峰与碳中和已经成为全球气候治理和生态文明建设的重大需求.厘清陆地生态系统增汇潜力不仅对准确预估未来气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响至关重要,更是人类制定气候变化应对方案的基本前提.本文从陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇视角,综述... 详细信息

碳达峰与碳中和已经成为全球气候治理和生态文明建设的重大需求.厘清陆地生态系统增汇潜力不仅对准确预估未来气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响至关重要,更是人类制定气候变化应对方案的基本前提.本文从陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇视角,综述了中国森林、灌丛、草原、农田和湿地等主要陆地生态系统碳储量、中国陆地生态系统碳汇及其对不同气候变化情景和人类活动的响应,发现中国陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇的评价结果因不同的研究方法和资料差异较大,需要不断完善陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇的评估方法并基于最新资料不断更新评估结果.文章进一步指出,现有研究对未来不同时期、不同排放情景下中国陆地生态系统的碳汇功能,尤其是同一区域不同国家重大生态工程增汇潜力的整合研究仍不足,对氮沉降及其与气候变化、大气CO_(2)浓度变化协同作用的影响,特别是对国家重大生态工程增汇潜力影响的研究仍不够,还没有开展中国陆地生态系统增汇的气候变化风险研究.据此,本文指出,未来中国陆地生态系统增汇研究需要重视国家重大生态工程增汇潜力及其风险评价,重点关注高度空间异质性的区域陆地生态系统碳收支模拟技术和不同气候变化情景下气象资料获取技术的发展,为中国陆地生态系统增汇的系统管理优化方案提供科学支撑,服务于国家碳中和战略.

关键词：中国陆地生态系统碳储量碳汇生态工程

CONTRASTING SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF STABLE ISOTOPES AND DEUTERIUM EXCESS IN PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

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CONTRASTING SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF STABLE ISOTOPES AND DEU...

中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所2014年度（第14届）学术年会

作者： Jie Li Zhonghe Pang Yanlong Kong mengzi zhou Tianming Huang Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Stable isotopes and deuterium excess in precipitation over China show distinctive differences during the summer and winter *** of δO and 5D values exhibit the switched influence of different air masses in different *** winter,higher deuterium excess values are found in the whole country,while in summer,only in regions south of 32°*** deuterium excess is found in regions north of 32°N,probably due to stronger subcloud evaporation under arid to semi-arid *** sensitivity of isotopic signals in precipitation also varies considerably in different *** winter,strong positive relationship cxists between δO and air temperature,and this effect increases with increasing latitude for individual monitoring *** summer,a negative linear correlation can be found between δO and the amount of precipitation,and this effect plays an important role in regions north of 32°*** is a south-north divide(near approximately 32°N) for the spatial variability of d-excess,△δO,and the dominant factors controlling stable isotopes in precipitation.

关键词： δ18O and δD Precipitation Deuterium excess Temperature effects Amount effects Seasonal variability

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黄河水生态承载力的流域整体性和时空连通性

科学通报 2021年第22期66卷 2785-2792页

作者：周广胜周莉汲玉河吕晓敏周梦子中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国气象科学研究院与郑州大学生态气象联合实验室郑州450001

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,黄河流域是中华文明的重要发育地.在中国5000多年的历史长河中,黄河流域作为全国政治、经济和文化中心占据了3000多年,孕育了河洛文化、河湟文化、关中文化等,分布有西安、郑州、洛阳、开封等古都,诞生了四大发... 详细信息

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,黄河流域是中华文明的重要发育地.在中国5000多年的历史长河中,黄河流域作为全国政治、经济和文化中心占据了3000多年,孕育了河洛文化、河湟文化、关中文化等,分布有西安、郑州、洛阳、开封等古都,诞生了四大发明和《诗经》、《老子》、《史记》等经典著作.黄河流域是连接青藏高原、黄土高原和华北平原的生态廊道,是西北和华北地区的重要水源。

关键词：河洛文化关中文化河湟文化《诗经》生态廊道四大发明连通性黄河流域

1971—2020年盘锦芦苇湿地净生态系统生产力及其影响因子

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应用生态学报 2023年第5期34卷 1331-1340页

作者：李成龙周广胜周梦子周莉刘杰郑州大学地球科学与技术学院郑州450001 中国气象科学研究院与郑州大学生态气象联合实验室郑州450001 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081

滨海河口湿地生态系统具有很强的储碳和固碳能力,正确评估其固碳变化及其环境影响因子是滨海河口湿地科学保护与管理的基础。本研究以盘锦芦苇湿地为对象,采用陆地生态系统模型,结合Mann-Kendall突变检验法、统计分析方法和情景模拟试验... 详细信息

滨海河口湿地生态系统具有很强的储碳和固碳能力,正确评估其固碳变化及其环境影响因子是滨海河口湿地科学保护与管理的基础。本研究以盘锦芦苇湿地为对象,采用陆地生态系统模型,结合Mann-Kendall突变检验法、统计分析方法和情景模拟试验,分析了1971—2020年芦苇湿地净生态系统生产力(NEP)的变化特征、稳定性、未来趋势以及环境影响因子对NEP的贡献率。结果表明:1971—2020年盘锦芦苇湿地的年均NEP为415.51 g C·m^(-2)·a^(-1),以1.7 g C·m^(-2)·a^(-1)的速率稳定增长,且未来仍呈持续增加趋势。NEP在春、夏、秋和冬季的多年均值分别为33.95、418.05、-18.71和-17.78 g C·m^(-2)·a^(-1),增长速率分别为0.35、1.26、0.14和-0.06 g C·m^(-2)·a^(-1)。未来春季和夏季的NEP呈增加趋势,而秋季和冬季的NEP呈减少趋势。不同尺度下环境因子对盘锦芦苇湿地NEP的贡献率不同。年尺度下降水的贡献率最高,达37.1%,高于CO_(2)浓度(28.4%)、气温(25.1%)和光合有效辐射(9.4%)。春季和秋季的NEP主要受降水影响,贡献率分别达49.5%和38.8%,夏季的NEP主要受CO_(2)浓度影响(36.9%),冬季的NEP主要受气温影响(-86.7%)。

关键词：芦苇湿地净生态系统生产力控制机制 TEM模型