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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 27-34页

作者： zhong shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Guangzhou 510641 China

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was *** ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than *** general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south ***,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the *** results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.

关键词： model initialization conditions GRAPES torrential rain cold bias

EVALUATION OF THE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES AND NUDGING TECHNIQUES IN GRAPES FOR WARM SECTOR TORRENTIAL RAINS USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第3期25卷 353-364页

作者： zhong shui-xin YANG Shuai CHEN Zi-tong Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyCMAGuangzhou 510080 China Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

Sensitivities of parameterization schemes were conducted based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) model. Surface observations were used to evaluate the simulations and to improve the model’s ability to simulate the extreme precipitation over southern China on 20 July 2016. The results showed that GRAPES captured the large-scale precipitation over southern China but failed to predict the extreme precipitation over xinyi. The model showed a systematic cold biases by adopting different parameterization schemes. In particular, the ECMWF analyses data showed a strong cold bias over Guangdong province and Guangxi region. Observational nudging results showed that the surface temperature could largely help to alleviate the cold bias. The alleviation in the warm sector accounted for main improvement by the nudging scheme, and the RMSE was reduced by 1.56 degree from 3.25 degree to 1.69 degree by 1-h simulation and with 1.3 degree alleviation by 2-h simulation. Sensitivities using different parameterizations and the nudging scheme showed that the model’s underestimation of the precipitation was still present despite improvements in the predictions of surface temperature.

关键词： GRAPES extreme precipitation warm sector cold bias observational nudging

CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF GRAPES SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER A COMPLEX OROGRAPHY

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第2期25卷 180-191页

作者： zhong shui-xin YANG Shuai GUO Chun-ya CHEN Zi-tong Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangdong Meteorological Observatory CMA

A comprehensive observational study on a warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) on 20 May 2016 over south China is presented with a pioneering examination of simulation capabilities based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM). The results show that the meso-scale convective boundary formed between north wind from mountainous areas and the south wind from plain regions as well as the cold outflows boundary both contribute to the convections over xinyi, and the convections were blocked and stayed stagnant in the trumpet-shaped topography for about 8 hours which eventually caused the torrential *** verifications of the observational studies by simulations showed that GRAPES_TMM had better estimations of large-scale frontal precipitation than the local warm-sector torrential rains. The simulations of local torrential rains in the warm sector showed strong biases in precipitation location and amount. GRAPES_TMM also showed overestimated surface winds and a faster moving speed bias, as well as an overall underestimation of the nocturnal surface temperature during the WSTR. This work may lead to several prospective researches of its model improvements on model physics such as land surface process and PBL parameterization.

关键词： warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) trumpet-shaped topography GRAPES_TMM mesoscale convective boundary

Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 319-329页

作者： CHEN Zi-tong DAI Guang-feng WU Kai-xin zhong shui-xin XU Dao-sheng Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corrector method for semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)in model dynamical core,as well as the improvement of physical ***,the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developed and have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing *** experimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time *** batch test shows that the precipitation forecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km *** 1-km model is in operation with a rapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals,which can be applied to short-range forecasts and nowcasting.

关键词： numerical weather prediction reference atmosphere semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian rapidly updating cycle short-range forecast

Simulated Influence of Mountainous Wind Farms Operations on Local Climate

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第1期28卷 109-120页

作者： AI Ze HE Fei CHEN Zheng-hong zhong shui-xin SHEN Yan-bo Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430205 China Hubei Meteorological Energy Development Center Wuhan 430205 China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China CMA Public Meteorological Service Center Beijing 100081 China CMA Wind and Solar Energy Resources Center Beijing 100081 China

Renewable energy sources,especially wind power,were believed to be able to slow down global warming;however,evidence in recent years shows that wind farms may also induce climate *** the rapid development of wind power industry,the number of wind farms installed in mountains has gradually ***,it is necessary to study the impact of wind farms in mountainous areas on local *** Suizhou and Dawu wind farms in northern Hubei Province were chosen for the present study on the impact of wind farm operations on the local climate in mountainous *** mesoscale meteorological numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and the Fitch model,together with turbulence correction factor,were used to simulate wind farm operations and study their effects on local *** results showed the characteristics of wind speed attenuation in mountainous wind farms:the amplitude and range of wind speed attenuation were stronger in the nighttime than in the daytime,and stronger in summer than in *** surface temperature increased and became more significant in ***,a cooling variation was observed above the surface warming *** height of this center was higher in the daytime than it was in the *** latent heat flux in the wind farms decreased at night,accompanied by an increase in sensible heat ***,these changes were not *** differences were observed between the impact of wind farms on the climate in the plains and the *** differences are more likely to be related to complex terrain conditions,climate conditions,and the density of wind *** present study may provide support for the development and construction of wind farms in mountainous areas.

关键词： mountainous area wind farm local climate energy field numerical simulation

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A Review on GRAPES-TMM Operational Model System at Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 495-504页

作者： zhong shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang ZHANG Cheng-zhong ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin FENG Ye-rong CHEN De-hui XUE Ji-shan Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China

This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

关键词： GRAPES-TMM TRAMS physical processes 9-3-1 forecasting system

Performance Evaluation of the GRAPES Model in Wind Simulations Over South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第1期27卷 1-9页

作者： zhong shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong DING Wei-yu XU Dao-sheng ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin LIANG Jia-hao TIAN Qun WANG Li-wen Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China

In the present study,the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was *** simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south *** results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the *** showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south *** also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnalto-morning period,as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the *** GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile,it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 *** the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation,GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation,especially in the lower and upper troposphere.

关键词： GRAPES wind simulation overestimated surface wind systematic deviation

Performance of the CMA-GD Model in Predicting Wind Speed at Wind Farms in Hubei, China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 473-481页

作者：许沛华成驰王文陈正洪钟水新张艳霞 Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430079 China Faculty of Artificial Intelligence Education School of Educational Information TechnologyCentral China Normal UniversityWuhan 430079 China Hubei Energy Group New Energy Development Co. Ltd.Wuhan 430069 China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China

This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province,*** observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and *** the same time,the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative *** results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm *** CMA-GD model exhibits a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.56,root mean square error of 2.72 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.11 m s^(-1).In contrast,the EC model shows a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.51,root mean square error of 2.83 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.21 m s^(-1).Conversely,in Wind Farm B,the EC model outperforms the CMA-GD *** CMA-GD model achieves a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.55,root mean square error of 2.61 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.13 m s^(-1).By contrast,the EC model displays a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.63,root mean square error of 2.04 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 1.67 m s^(-1).

关键词： CMA-GD wind speed prediction wind farm root mean square error performance evaluation

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 406-417页

作者： zhong shui-xin ZHUANG Yan HU Sheng CHEN Zi-tong DING Wei-yu FENG Ye-rong DENG Tao LIU Xian-tong ZHANG Yan-xia XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430205 China

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were *** impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further *** results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over *** maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan *** 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and *** comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and *** water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·*** north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south *** IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

关键词： extreme rainfall CMA-GD IVT double-eyes distribution

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关于光合有效辐射的气候学计算问题

太阳能学报 1988年第1期9卷 59-65页

作者：王炳忠税亚欣气象科学研究院农业气象研究所

通过北京、烟台、郑州、济南等地生长季节内对总日射（Q）和光合有效辐射(QPAR)的长期连续自动观测,发现QPAR/Q值较稳定,季节与云量的影响不大。太阳高度角较低时,该值的变化主要由仪器的余弦响应引起,目前所用仪器尚不能满足研究太阳... 详细信息

通过北京、烟台、郑州、济南等地生长季节内对总日射（Q）和光合有效辐射(QPAR)的长期连续自动观测,发现QPAR/Q值较稳定,季节与云量的影响不大。太阳高度角较低时,该值的变化主要由仪器的余弦响应引起,目前所用仪器尚不能满足研究太阳高度角对其影响的需要。通过对实测资料的分析,发现国外的一些公式系统偏高,整理得到了适合我国东部平原地区的计算公式:QPAR=0.42Q。

关键词：光合有效辐射日射仪器余弦响应太阳辐射气候学计算云量