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Climatic change and urbanization effect in China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： zhao zongci Academy of Meteorological Science, State Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in China. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over China. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

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Chinese Geographical Science 2010年第3期20卷 226-235页

作者： JIANG Ying Luo Yong zhao zongci SHI Ying XU Yinlong ZHU Jinhong National Climate Center of China Beijing 100081 China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Illinois State Water Survey Department of Natural Resources University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Champaign Illinois 61820 USA

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs), i.e., RegCM3 (the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model), PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) and CMM5 (the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, NCAR Mesoscale Model) to simulate the near-surface-layer winds (10 m above surface) all over China in the late 20th century. Results suggest that like global climate models (GCMs), these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country. However, RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed. In view of their merits, these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century. The results show that 1) summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2) annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3) the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain. As a result, although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come, there are great uncertainties in projections, especially for wind speed, and these issues need to be further explored.

关键词： wind speed projection regional climate model global climate model

Improved decadal climate prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-assimilated initial condition

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Science Bulletin 2017年第16期62卷 1142-1147页

作者： Min Wei Qingquan Li Xiaoge Xin Wei Zhou Zhenyu Han Yong Luo zongci zhao Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing 100875China National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Decadal prediction experiments of Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1 （BCC- CSM1.1） participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIPS） had poor skill in extratropics of the North Atlantic, the initialization of which was done by relaxing modeled ocean temperature to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） reanalysis data. This study aims to improve the prediction skill of this model by using the assimilation technique in the initialization. New ocean data are firstly generated by assimilating the sea surface temperature （SST） of the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature （HadlSST） dataset to the ocean model of BCC-CSM1.1 via Ensemble Optimum Interpolation （EnOI）. Then a suite of decadal reforecasts launched annually over the period 1961- 2005 is carried out with simulated ocean temperature restored to the assimilated ocean data. Comparisons between the re-forecasts and previous CMIP5 forecasts show that the re-forecasts are more skillful in mid-to-high latitude SST of the North Atlantic. Improved prediction skill is also found for the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation （AMO）, which is consistent with the better skill of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC） predicted by the re-forecasts. We conclude that the EnOl assimilation generates better ocean data than the SODA reanalysis for initializing decadal climate prediction of BCC-CSM1.1 model.

关键词： Decadal prediction EnOl Initialization AMO BCC-CSM

Reconstruction of temperature series of China for the last 1000 years

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第23期52卷 3272-3280页

作者： WANG ShaoWu WEN XinYu LUO Yong DONG WenJie zhao zongci YANG Bao Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Laboratory for Desert and Desertification Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China

This paper reports a study on reconstructing temperature series for ten regions of China over the last 1000 years with a time resolution of 10 a. The regions concerned are: Northeast, North, East, South China, Taiwan, Central, Southwest, Northwest China, Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A variety of proxy data, such as ice core, tree-rings, stalagmites, peat, lake sediments, pollen and historical records, were validated with instrumental observations made in the last 120 years, and applied in the recon- struction of the temperature series. A temperature series for whole China is then established by aver- aging the ten regional series with a weighting proportional to the area of each region. Finally, tem- perature variations for the last 1000 years are examined, with special focus placed on the characteris- tics of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warming (MW).

关键词：中国温度变化冰层气候

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in China induced by greenhouse effect

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： zhao zongci and Ding YihuiAcademy of Meteorological Science,State Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2011年第1期2卷 55-56页

作者： zongci zhao National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

As we know, the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities. Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study, the main objective is to analyze if the projections of future climate change by global climate models are reliable. Several workshops have been held on this issue,

关键词：未来气候变化 IPCC 预测全球气候模式全球气候模型评估报告人类活动模式模拟

Is Global Strong Wind Declining?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2011年第4期2卷 225-228页

作者： zongci zhao Yong Luo Ying Jiang National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Center for Public Meteorological Service China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

To mitigate global warming, the call for using clean energy, developing low-carbon economy and ini- tiating green environmental protection has never been louder. One of the hot topics, which has received widespread attentions in the world, is the development and utilization of wind energy. At the same time, some of the climate change studies focus on the changes in global wind speeds and strong winds which are related to wind energy utilization. The issues, which are the subjects of these studies, can be summarized in the following.

关键词：强风衰退风能利用全球变暖清洁能源绿色环保气候变化 INI

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IPCC科学评估报告研究进展

应用气象学报 1999年第S1期10卷 114-122页

作者：赵宗慈国家气候中心

各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）第一工作组（ＷＧ１）在１９９０年和１９９５年先后出版两次科学评估报告，并且在１９９２年还出版了对第一次报告的补充报告．现在，ＩＰＣＣ又准备在２００１年出版第三次科学评估报告．本... 详细信息

各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）第一工作组（ＷＧ１）在１９９０年和１９９５年先后出版两次科学评估报告，并且在１９９２年还出版了对第一次报告的补充报告．现在，ＩＰＣＣ又准备在２００１年出版第三次科学评估报告．本文着重分析与介绍近１０年来ＩＰＣＣ科学评估报告的研究进展．

关键词： IPCC 科学评估报告

Influences of greenhouse effect on agricultural production in China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1990年第4期2卷 3-10页

作者： Gao Suhua, Ding Yihui, Pan Yaru and zhao zongci Academy of Meteorological Science,State Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

An obvious warming in China induced by doubled carbon, dioxide as simulated by the climatic models have been found. It is also noticed that there might be drying or wetting in some parts of China induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs). Agricultural productivity mainly depends on the temperature, rainfall and soil moisture in China. The changes of agricultural productivity in the different parts of China induced by doubled CO2 have been estimated in this paper. It is shown that the greenhouse effect might cause increasing production in some parts of China and decreasing production in other parts of China.

关键词： greenhouse effect agricultural productivity doubled CO2 GCMs climatic productivity force.