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A Review on Evaluation Methods of Climate Modeling

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2013年第3期4卷 137-144页

作者： zhao zong-ci LUO Yong HUANG Jian-Bin Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

There is scientific progress in the evaluation methods of recent Earth system models(ESMs).Methods range from single variable to multi-variables,multi-processes,multi-phenomena quantitative evaluations in five layers(spheres)of the Earth system,from climatic mean assessment to climate change(such as trends,periodicity,interdecadal variability),extreme values,abnormal characters and quantitative evaluations of phenomena,from qualitative assessment to quantitative calculation of reliability and uncertainty for model *** started considering independence and similarity between models in multi-model use,as well as the quantitative evaluation of climate prediction and projection efect and the quantitative uncertainty contribution *** this manuscript,the simulations and projections by both CMIP5 and CMIP3 that have been published after 2007 are reviewed and summarized.

关键词： Earth system models evaluation methods(metrics) quantitative evaluations review

Effects of Sunspot on the Multi-Decadal Climate Projections

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2014年第1期5卷 51-56页

作者： zhao zong-ci LUO Yong HUANG Jian-Bin Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University National Climate Center China Meteorology Administration

Most model generated projections of climate change for the future decades only consider anthro- pogenic activities. It is hard to think about the effects of solar activity and volcano effects, because the pre- dictions of both solar activity and volcano effects are difficult. But as we know, the sun is the source of en- ergy for the Earth＇s climate system, and observations show it to be a variable star.

关键词： RCP Effects of Sunspot on the Multi-Decadal Climate Projections QBO cycle CESM Figure

Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2013年第3期4卷 145-152页

作者： GUO Yan DONG Wen-Jie REN Fu-Min zhao zong-ci HUANG Jian-Bin State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System ScienceTsinghua University

Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were *** observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of *** results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the *** simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the ***,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western *** sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better *** CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was *** general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.

关键词： CMIP5 CMIP3 China annual mean surface air temperature historical simulation assessment

Debates on the Causes of Global Warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2012年第1期3卷 38-44页

作者： HUANG Jian-Bin WANG Shao-Wu LUO Yong zhao zong-ci WEN Xin-Yu Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC(NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are *** holds that today's global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natural variability,which is emphasized by *** surface temperature observations since the mid-20th century support the hypothesis of anthropogenic impact,but for the last one hundred years or so,natural forcings such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and thermohaline circulation variations also have had great influences on the Earth's climate,especially on inter-decadal *** addition,evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period(MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are closely associated with the solar activity over the past 1 thousand *** the past 10 thousand years, the North Atlantic cold events and solar activity are closely ***,the physical mechanisms of the solar-climate variability and interrelation are not well understood,***,a prevailing view recently indicates that galactic cosmic rays may result in climatic cooling through modulating global low cloud ***,its process and mechanism need to be further investigated.

关键词： global warming causes greenhouse effect solar activity galactic cosmic rays

Are There Impacts of Urban Heat Island on Future Climate Change?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2013年第2期4卷 133-136页

作者： zhao zong-ci LUO Yong HUANG Jian-Bin Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

The United Nations world urbanization prospects 2009 report points out, that at present more than 50% of the world＇s population is living in urban area, and it is expected that by 2050 this figure will reach 70% [UN, 2009]. Therefore, there is need to pay more attention to the impacts of urban heat island effects on future climate change.

关键词：未来气候变化城市热岛效应世界人口城市地区联合国城市化

7月气温和降雨量对湖北省四湖地区急性血吸虫病检出率的影响及预报初探

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环境与健康杂志 2000年第3期17卷 160-162页

作者：赵宗群李琳赵宗慈北京医科大学公共卫生学院 100083 国家气候中心

目的 ]探索用气温和降雨量预报急性血吸虫病检出率的新途径。 [方法 ]收集我国湖北省四湖地区 1976～1989年急性血吸虫病检出率 (急血率 )和相应地区 7月气温和降雨量资料 ,并用 SPSS8.0软件做多元回归分析。 [结果 ]该区 1976～ 1989... 详细信息

目的 ]探索用气温和降雨量预报急性血吸虫病检出率的新途径。 [方法 ]收集我国湖北省四湖地区 1976～1989年急性血吸虫病检出率 (急血率 )和相应地区 7月气温和降雨量资料 ,并用 SPSS8.0软件做多元回归分析。 [结果 ]该区 1976～ 1989年年急血率 (y)与 7月份平均气温 (x2 )呈负相关 (r=- 0 .7495 ,P<0 .0 5 ) ,与 7月份平均降雨量 (x1 )呈正相关 (r=0 .735 7,P<0 .0 5 )。所获预报模型为 y=2 2 .6 33+0 .0 1172 x1 - 0 .741x2 。 71%预报数据误差率≤ 30 %。 [结论 ]预报模型需在实践中检验修正。

关键词：急性血吸虫病降雨量气温湖北

The Science of Global Warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2012年第3期3卷 174-178页

作者： HUANG Jian-Bin WANG Shao-Wu LUO Yong zhao zong-ci WEN Xin-Yu The Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Global warming is unequivocal, as is manifested in three internationally known global temperature records with the global average temperature rising at a rate of 0.70-0.75℃ per 100 years during 1910-2009 [Wen et al., 2011]. In other words, the earth has warmed more than 0.8℃ since the Industrial Revolution. If it is true that 2℃ above pre-industrial level is a threshold of climate ＂safety＂, we will have to confront a serious situation where less than 1.2℃ warmins is oermissible in the future [Liu et al.. 2011].

关键词：全球变暖科学气温上升气温记录工业革命温家宝工业化地球

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2013年第1期4卷 69-72页

作者： WEN Xin-Yu WANG Shao-Wu LUO Yong zhao zong-ci HUANG Jian-Bin Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration The Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University

Equilibrium climate sensitivity （ECS） is usually defined as the global mean equilibrium temperature response to a doubling CO2 concentration of its preindustrial level in the atmosphere[Hegerl et al., 2007;Meehl et ... 详细信息

关键词：气候敏感性平衡温度 CO2浓度倍增 ECS 工业化大气

Uncertainties in Global Warming Projection

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2012年第4期3卷 229-232页

作者： WEN Xin-Yu WANG Shao-Wu LUO Yong zhao zong-ci HUANG Jian-Bin Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking University National Climate Center Chinese Meteorological Administration Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University

According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） [IPCC, 2007], the global mean surface temperature in 2100 is projected to be 1.1-6.4℃ higher than the 1980 1999 mean state, with the best estimation of increase at 1.8-4.0℃. It should be noted that this is the projected range of increase rather than the so-called uncertainties in global warming projection. Specifically, 1.1℃ and 1.8℃ are the lower limit and the best estimation for the B1 emissions scenario （the low emissions scenario）, respectively; while 4.0℃ and 6.4℃ are the corresponding upper limit and the best estimation for the A1F1 emissions scenario （the high emissions scenario）. Therefore,

关键词：不确定性全球变暖政府间气候变化专门委员会投影最佳估计低排放评估报告地表温度