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Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 427-443页

作者： Guilin LIU Xinsheng ZHOU Yi KOU Fang WU daniel zhao Yu XU College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China Dornsife College University of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridgeMA 02138USA Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China

The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary *** better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is *** proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design *** method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic *** aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the *** epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction *** advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model *** show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the *** the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the *** the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation *** presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of u

关键词： South China Sea marine environmental design parameters model uncertainty information entropy Monte Carlo method

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Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 518-531页

作者： Guilin LIU Xiuxiu NONG Yi KOU Fang WU daniel zhao Zongbing YU College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Dornsife College University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles CA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara CA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridge MA 02138USA State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of TechnologyDalian 116024China

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe ***,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge *** constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme *** over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period *** results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold *** results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis *** the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 *** results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally *** classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more *** the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

关键词： risk classification South China Sea typhoon storm surge extreme value expansion over threshold sampling

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Maximum Entropy Distribution Function and Uncertainty Evaluation Criteria

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China Ocean Engineering 2021年第2期35卷 238-249页

作者： CHEN Bai-yu KOU Yi zhao daniel WU Fang WANG Li-ping LIU Gui-lin College of Engineering University of California BerkeleyBerkeley 94720USA Dornsife College University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles 90007USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridge 02138USA Statistics and applied probability University of California Santa BabaraSanta Babara 93106USA School of Mathematical Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

Marine environmental design parameter extrapolation has important applications in marine engineering and coastal disaster *** distribution models used for environmental design parameter usually pass the hypothesis tests in statistical analysis,but the calculation results of different distribution models often vary *** this paper,based on the information entropy,the overall uncertainty test criteria were studied for commonly used distributions including Gumbel,Weibull,and Pearson-III *** improved method for parameter estimation of the maximum entropy distribution model is proposed on the basis of moment *** study in this paper shows that the number of sample data and the degree of dispersion are proportional to the information entropy,and the overall uncertainty of the maximum entropy distribution model is minimal compared with other models.

关键词： maximum entropy distribution model uncertainty information entropy evaluation criterion

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Shear wave velocity prediction:A review of recent progress and future opportunities

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Energy Geoscience 2024年第4期5卷 36-54页

作者： John Oluwadamilola Olutoki Jian-guo zhao Numair Ahmed Siddiqui Mohamed Elsaadany AKM Eahsanul Haque Oluwaseun daniel Akinyemi Amany H.Said zhaoyang zhao State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting CNPC Key Laboratory of Geophysical ExplorationCollege of GeophysicsChina University of PetroleumBeijingChina Center of Excellence in Subsurface Seismic Imaging and Hydrocarbon Prediction Department of GeoscienceFaculty of Geoscience&Petroleum EngineeringUniversiti Teknologi PETRONAS(UTP)Malaysia Geology Department Faculty of ScienceAssiut UniversityAssiut71516Egypt

Shear logs,also known as shear velocity logs,are used for various types of seismic analysis,such as determining the relationship between amplitude variation with offset(AVO)and interpreting multiple types of seismic *** log is an important tool for analyzing the properties of rocks and interpreting seismic data to identify potential areas of oil and gas ***,these logs are often not collected due to cost constraints or poor borehole conditions possibly leading to poor data quality,though there are various approaches in practice for estimating shear wave *** this study,a detailed review of the recent advances in the various techniques used to measure shear wave(S-wave)velocity is carried *** techniques include direct and indirect measurement,determination of empirical relationships between S-wave velocity and other parameters,machine learning,and rock physics ***,this study creates a collection of employed techniques,enhancing the existing knowledge of this significant topic and offering a progressive approach for practical implementation in the field.

关键词： Shear wave(S-wave)velocity Direct and indirect measurement Empirical relationship Artificial intelligence(AI) Machine learning Rock physics model

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Low-temperature replacement construction of three-dimensional corrosion-resistant interface for deeply rechargeable Zn metal batteries

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Nano Materials Science 2024年第3期6卷 329-336页

作者： Jinze Li daniel Rohrens Gianluca Dalfollo Xiaochao Wu Ziheng Lu Qiang Gao Bo Han Ruimin Sun Chenggang Zhou Jindi Wang zhao Cai Faculty of Materials Science and Chemistry China University of GeosciencesWuhan430074China Institute of Inorganic Chemistry RWTH Aachen UniversityAachen52074Germany Microsoft Research AI4Science Beijing10080China Institute of New Energy on Chemical Storage and Power Sources College of Applied Chemistry and Environmental EngineeringYancheng Teachers UniversityYancheng224000China

Aqueous Zn batteries are promising candidates for grid-scale renewable energy *** electrodes have been widely investigated and applied as anode materials for aqueous Zn batteries,however,they suffer from limited surface area and severe interfacial issues including metallic dendrites and corrosion side reactions,limiting the depth of discharge(DOD)of the foil electrode ***,a low-temperature replacement reaction is utilized to in-situ construct a three-dimensional(3D)corrosion-resistant interface for deeply rechargeable Zn foil ***,the deliberate low-temperature environment controlled the replacement rate between polycrystalline Zn metal and oxalic acid,producing a Zn foil electrode with distinct 3D corrosion-resistant interface(3DCI-Zn),which differed from conventional two-dimensional(2D)protective structure and showed an order of magnitude higher surface ***,the 3DCI-Zn electrode exhibited dendrite-free and anticorrosion properties,and achieved stable plating/stripping performance for 1000 h at 10 mA cm^(-2)and 10 mAh cm^(-2)with a remarkable DOD of 79%.After pairing with a MnO2cathode with a high areal capacity of 4.2 mAh cm^(-2),the pouch cells delivered 168 Wh L^(-1)and a capacity retention of 89.7%after 100 cycles with a low negative/positive(N/P)ratio of 3:1.

关键词： Aqueous batteries Foil electrodes Depth of discharge Dendrites Corrosion side reactions

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A social computing method for energy safety

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第1期5卷 64-82页

作者： Pengfei zhao Shuangqi Li Zhidong Cao Paul Jen-Hwa Hu daniel Dajun Zeng Da Xie Yichen Shen Jiangfeng Li Tianyi Luo Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100090China Systems Engineering Cornell UniversityIthacaNY 14853USA David Eccles School of Business the University of UtahUtahUSA Department of Electrical Engineering Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China China University of Mining and Technology China

Information and communication technologies enable the transformation of traditional energy systems into cyber-physical energy systems(CPESs),but such systems have also become popular targets of ***,available methods for evaluating the impacts of cyberattacks suffer from limited resilience,efficacy,and practical *** mitigate their potentially disastrous consequences,this study suggests a two-stage,discrepancy-based optimization approach that considers both preparatory actions and response measures,integrating concepts from social *** proposed Kullback-Leibler divergence-based,distributionally robust optimization(KDR)method has a hierarchical,two-stage objective function that incorporates the operating costs of both system infrastructures(e.g.,energy resources,reserve capacity)and real-time response measures(e.g.,load shedding,demand-side management,electric vehicle charging station management).By incorporating social computing principles,the optimization framework can also capture the social behavior and interactions of energy consumers in response to *** preparatory stage entails day-ahead operational decisions,leveraging insights from social computing to model and predict the behaviors of individuals and communities affected by potential *** mitigation stage generates responses designed to contain the consequences of the attack by directing and optimizing energy use from the demand side,taking into account the social context and preferences of energy consumers,to ensure resilient,economically efficient CPES *** method can determine optimal schemes in both stages,accounting for the social dimensions of the *** original disaster mitigation model uses an abstract formulation to develop a risk-neutral model that characterizes cyberattacks through KDR,incorporating social computing techniques to enhance the understanding and response to cyber *** approach can mitigate the impacts more

关键词： Cyberattacks Cyber-physical energy systems Distributionally robust optimization False data injections Two-stage modeling Social computing

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Diagnosis,treatment and prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in children:experts'consensus statement updatedforthe Omicron variant

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2024年第3期20卷 272-286页

作者： Rong-Meng Jiang Zheng-De Xie Yi Jiang Xiao-Xia Lu Run-Ming Jin Yue-Jie Zheng Yun-Xiao Shang Bao-Ping Xu Zhi-Sheng Liu Gen Lu Ji-Kui Deng Guang-Hua Liu Xiao-Chuan Wang Jian-She Wang Lu-zhao Feng Wei Liu Yi Zheng Sai-Nan Shu Min Lu Wan-Jun Luo Miao Liu Yu-Xia Cui Le-Ping Ye A-Dong Shen Gang Liu Li-Wei Gao Li-Juan Xiong Yan Bai Li-Kai Lin Zhuang Wei Feng-Xia Xue Tian-You Wang Dong-Chi zhao Jian-Bo Shao daniel Kwok-keung Ng Gary Wing-kin Wong Zheng-Yan zhao Xing-Wang Li Yong-Hong Yang Kun-Ling Shen Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Infectious Diseases Beijing Ditan HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100015China Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infection Diseases Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in ChildrenMinistry of EducationNational Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseasesResearch Unit of Critical Infection in ChildrenChinese Academy of Medical Sciences2019RU016Laboratory of Infection and VirologyBeijing Pediatric Research InstituteBeijing Children's HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children's HealthBeijing 100045China Department of Pediatrics Renmin Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430060China Department of Respiratory Wuhan Children's HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430016China Department of Pediatrics Union HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430022China Department of Respiratory Shenzhen Children's HospitalShenzhen 518038China Department of Pediatric Respiratory Shengjing Hospital Affiliated to China Medical UniversityShenyang 110004China Department of Respiratory Beijing Children's HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseasesNational Center for Children's HealthBeijing 100045China Department of Neurology Wuhan Children's HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430016China Department of Respiratory Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical CenterGuangzhou 510623China Department of Infectious Diseases Shenzhen Children's HospitalShenzhen 518038China Department of Pediatrics Fujian Branch of Shanghai Children's Medical CenterFujian Children's HospitalFuzhou350005China Department of Clinical Immunology and Allergy Children's Hospital of Fudan UniversityNational Center for Children's HealthShanghai 201102China Department of Infectious Diseases Children's Hospital of Fudan UniversityNational Center for Children's Health.Shanghai

It has been more than 3 years since the novel coronavirus(SARS-CoV-2)pandemic raged *** coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has greatly influenced human *** to data from the World Health Organization(WHO),there were ove... 详细信息

关键词： prevention infection statement

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Multi-soliton solutions of coupled Lakshmanan-Porsezian-daniel equations with variable coefficients under nonzero boundary conditions

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Chinese Physics B 2024年第8期33卷 137-152页

作者：赵会超马雷诺解西阳 Department of Mathematics and Physics and Hebei Key Laboratory of Physics and Energy TechnologyNorth China Electric Power UniversityBaoding 071003China

This paper aims to investigate the multi-soliton solutions of the coupled Lakshmanan–Porsezian–daniel equations with variable coefficients under nonzero boundary *** equations are utilized to model the phenomenon of nonlinear waves propagating simultaneously in non-uniform optical *** analyzing the Lax pair and the Riemann–Hilbert problem,we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and interactions of solitons of this ***,we study the impacts of group velocity dispersion or the fourth-order dispersion on soliton *** appropriate parameter selections,we observe various nonlinear phenomena,including the disappearance of solitons after interaction and their transformation into breather-like solitons,as well as the propagation of breathers with variable periodicity and interactions between solitons with variable periodicities.

关键词： soliton Riemann-Hilbert problem non-zero boundary conditions coupled Lakshmanan-Porsezian-daniel equation

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Local PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) emission inventories from agricultural tillage and harvest in northeastern China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2017年第7期29卷 15-23页

作者： Weiwei Chen daniel Q Tong Shichun Zhang Xuelei Zhang Hongmei zhao Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment Northeast Institute of Geography and AgroecologyChinese Academy of Sciences Cooperative Institute for Climate & Satellites University of Maryland Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems George Mason University

Mineral particles or particulate matters（PMs） emitted during agricultural activities are major recurring sources of atmospheric aerosol ***,precise PM inventory from agricultural tillage and harvest in agricultural regions is challenged by infrequent local emission factor（EF） *** understand PM emissions from these practices in northeastern China,we measured EFs of PM_（10） and PM_（2.5） from three field operations（i.e.,tilling,planting and harvesting） in major crop production（i.e.,corn and soybean）,using portable real-time PM analyzers and weather station ***-level PM_（10） and PM_（2.5） emissions from agricultural tillage and harvest were estimated,based on local EFs,crop areas and crop *** EFs averaged（107 ± 27）,（17 ± 5） and 26 mg/m^2 for field tilling,planting and harvesting under relatively dry conditions（i.e.,soil moisture 〈15%）,*** EFs of PM from field tillage and planting operations were negatively affected by topsoil *** magnitude of PM_（10） and PM_（2.5） emissions from these three activities were estimated to be 35.1 and 9.8 kilotons/yr in northeastern China,respectively,of which Heilongjiang Province accounted for approximately45%.Spatiotemporal distribution showed that most PM_（10） emission occurred in April,May and October and were concentrated in the central regions of the northeastern plain,which is dominated by dryland *** work is needed to estimate the contribution of agricultural dust emissions to regional air quality in northeastern China.

关键词： PM Emission factor Agricultural inventory Tillage Harvest Burning

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Temporal variability of atmospheric particulate matter and chemical composition during a growing season at an agricultural site in northeastern China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2015年第12期27卷 133-141页

作者： Weiwei Chen daniel Tong Shichun Zhang Mo Dan Xuelei Zhang Hongmei zhao Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Beijing Municipal Institute of Labor Protection

This study presents the observations of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations at an agricultural site from April to October 2012 in Dehui city,*** air was sampled by filter-based samplers and online PM *** filter samples were analyzed to determine the abundance of ionic/inorganic elements,organic carbon（OC） and elemental carbon（EC）.The daily PM10 concentrations varied significantly over the monitoring period,with an average of168 ± 63（in the range of 52-277） μg/m^3 during the land preparation/planting period（26 April-15 June）,85 ± 65（36-228） μg/m^3 during the growing season（16 June-25 September）,and 207 ±88（103-310） μg/m^3 during the harvest period（26 September-31 October）.PM2.5 accounted for44%,56%and 66%of atmospheric PM10 during these periods,*** PM10 diurnal variation showed a distinct peak from 16：00 to 21：00（LST） during the growing and harvesting seasons,while a gradual increase throughout the daytime until 17：00 was observed during tilling *** dust elements（Al,Ca,Fe,and Mg） dominated the PM10 chemical composition during the tilling season;OC,NO3^-,SO4^（2-） and NH4~＋ during the growing season;and carbonaceous species（i.e.,OC and EC） during the harvesting *** results indicate that the soil particles emitted by farm tillage and organic matter released from straw burning are the two most significant sources of PM10 emissions contributing to the recurring high pollution events in this ***,development of agricultural PM inventories from soil tillage and straw burning is prioritized to support air quality modeling.

关键词： PM10 PM2.5 Emission factor Agricultural inventory Tillage Harvest Burning

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