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The outbreak pattern of the SARS cases in Asia

Chinese Science Bulletin 2004年第17期49卷 1819-1823页

作者： zhangzhibin SHENGChengfa MAZufei LIDianmo InstituteofZoology ChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing100080China

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused tremendous damage to many Asia countries, espe- cially China. The transmission process and outbreak pattern of SARS is still not well understood. This study aims to find a simple model to describe the outbreak pattern of SARS cases by using SARS case data commonly released by governments. The outbreak pattern of cumulative SARS cases is expected to be a logistic type because the infection will be slowed down due to the increasing control effort by people and/or due to depletion of susceptible individuals. The increase rate of SARS cases is expected to decrease with the cumulative SARS cases, as described by the traditional logistical model, which is widely used in population dynamic studies. The in- stantaneous rate of increases were significantly and nega- tively correlated with the cumulative SARS cases in mainland of China (including Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, Shanxi, the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia) and Singapore. The basic reproduction number R0 in Asia ranged from 2.0 to 5.6 (except for Taiwan, China). The R0 of Hebei and Tian- jin were much higher than that of Singapore, Hongkong, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, indicating SARS virus might have originated differently or new mutations occurred during transmission. We demonstrated that the outbreaks of SARS in many regions of Asia were well described by the logistic model, and the control measures implemented by governments are effective. The maximum instantaneous rate of increase, basic reproductive number, and maximum cu- mulative SARS cases were also calculated by using the logis- tic model.

关键词：亚洲疾病爆发模式 SARS 非典型肺炎数理逻辑模型

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Infection of SARS-CoV on juvenile and adult Brandt＇s vole Microtus brandtii

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第12期50卷 1199-1204页

作者： GAOHong PENGJingpian DENGWei SHIDazhao BAOLinlin WANGDehua ZHANGBinglin QINChuan zhangzhibin InstituteofLaboratoryAnimalsScience ChineseAcademyofMedicalSciences&PekingUnionMedicalCollegeBeijing100021China StateKeyLaboratoryofIntegratedManagementonPestInsectsandRodents StateKeyLaboratoryofReproductiveBiologyInstituteofZoologyChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing100080China ChineseAgriculturalUniversity Beijing100094China

We studied the infectious effect of SARS-CoV virus on juvenile and adult Brandt’s Vole (Microtus brandtii) by nasal cavity spraying method (CCID50 is 105.7). SARS virus caused serious deaths in adults. The death adults demonstrated hemorrhage from mouth, nasal cavity and intestine, hemorrhageious interstitial pneumonia and gore in liver, spleen and kidney. The survival adults demonstrated local hemorrhagic spot in lung and emphysema, but the other organs showed no pathological abnormality. SARS virus caused no deaths in juveniles, but locomotion of infected juveniles became slower. In the early stage, there was local pneumonia in lung and SARS viruses were isolated from the pathological tissue. Only one control juvenile lived and the infected juvenile showed local pneumonia in lung. The results demonstrated that SARS-CoV infected Brandt’s vole seriously and adults were more susceptive to SARS-CoV than juveniles. The Brandt’s vole may be a potential animal model for SARS research.

关键词： SARS 非典型肺炎动物模型流行性传染病

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Characteristics of Blueschist in Shuangjiang Tectonic Mélange Zone,West Yunnan Province

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Journal of China University of Geosciences 2004年第2期15卷 224-231页

作者： zhangzhibin LiJing LuGuxian YuHua WangFangzheng GeologicalInvestigationAcademyofYunnanProvince Yuxi653100China InstituteofGeomechanics ChineseAcademyofGeologicalSciencesBeijing100081China FacultyofEarthSciences ChinaUniversityofGeosciencesWuhan430074China

Glaucophane in Shuangjiang area, West Yunnan Province, supplies a chance for studying south segment of Lancangjiang tectonic zone. But people are at odds as to whether two stage glaucophane exists or not, glaucophane is the result of dynamic metamorphism later, or indicates a high P/T metamorphic belt when Paleozoic Tethys Sea closed. Authors discover in a recent research that there is only one stage glaucophane in Shuangjiang area, and three blueschist belts are distributed near N S tending, and glaucophane in Shuangjiang area is related to the eastward subduction of Changning Menglian basin.

关键词： tectonic mélange zone blueschist belt glaucophane

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