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Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2012年第3期2卷 298-306页

作者： yuriy kuleshov Yan Wang Jemishabye Apajee Robert Fawcett David Jones Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia National Climate Centre Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University Melbourne Australia

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most destructive weather phenomena to impact on tropical regions, and reliable predicttion of TC seasonal activity is important for preparedness of coastal communities in the tropics. In investigating prospects for improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans, including the Australian Region, we used linear regression to model the relationship between the annual number of cyclones and three indices (SOI, NI?O3.4 and 5VAR) describing the strength of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The correlation between the number of Australian Region (90?E - 160?E) TCs and the indices was strong (3-month 5VAR ?0.65, NI?O3.4 ?0.62 and SOI +0.64), and a cross-validation assessment demonstrated that the models which used July-August-September indices and the temporal trend as the predictors performed well. The predicted number of TCs in the Australian Region for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons was 14 (11 recorded) and 12, respectively. We also found that the correlation between the numbers of TCs in the western South Indian region (30?E to 90?E) and the eastern South Pacific region (east of 170?E) and the indices was weak, and it is therefore not sensible to build linear regression forecast models for these regions. We conclude that for the Australian Region, the new statistical model provides prospects for improvement in forecasting skill compared to the statistical model currently employed at the National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The next step towards improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the various regions of the Southern Hemisphere will be undertaken through analysis of outputs from the dynamical climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia).

关键词： Tropical Cyclones Seasonal Prediction Australian Region

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Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第5期4卷 803-818页

作者： yuriy kuleshov Simon McGree David Jones Andrew Charles Andrew Cottrill Bipen Prakash Terry Atalifo Salesa Nihmei Fata Lagomauitumua Sunny K. Seuseu National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University Melbourne Australia Faculty of Sciences Engineering and Technology Swinburne University of Technology Melbourne Australia Department of Mathematics and Statistics The University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia Fiji Meteorological Service Nadi Airport Fiji Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) Apia Samoa Samoa Meteorology Division Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Apia Samoa

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three mo

关键词： Extreme Weather and Climate Events Western Pacific Cyclones Floods Droughts

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Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach yuriy kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of Meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

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Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Properties of Graphene and Silicene in Terahertz Range

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Journal of Electromagnetic Analysis and Applications 2025年第1期17卷 1-13页

作者： Volodymyr Grimalsky Jesus Escobedo-Alatorre yuriy Rapoport Anatoliy Kotsarenko Center for Investigations on Engineering and Applied Science (CIICAp) Institute for Investigations on Basic and Applied Science (IICBA) Autonomous University of State Morelos (UAEM) Cuernavaca Mexico Space Radio-Diagnostic Research Centre University of Warmia and Mazury (UWM) Olsztyn Poland Faculty of Engineering Autonomous University of Carmen (UNACAR) Ciudad del Carmen Mexico

Resonant linear and nonlinear properties in terahertz range of 2D materials graphene and silicene placed into a bias magnetic field are investigated theoretically on the base of the quasi-classical kinetic theory. When the electromagnetic frequency is close to the cyclotron one, the linear conductivity increases two orders. Under the resonant frequencies nonlinearity becomes essential at low magnitudes of terahertz electric fields. In absence of a bias magnetic field the nonlinear dependences of the surface electric currents on terahertz electric field are practically the same simulated from kinetics and electron hydrodynamics with nonzero “kinetic” electron effective mass. Graphene possesses higher values of nonlinearity of the resonant conductivity, whereas in absence of a bias magnetic field, the electron nonlinearity is higher in silicene.

关键词： Terahertz Range Graphene Silicene Resonant Conductivity Nonlinearity

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Trilayer anisotropic structure versus randomly oriented structure in heart valve leaflet tissue engineering

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Bio-Design and Manufacturing 2023年第4期6卷 423-438页

作者： yuriy Snyder Soumen Jana Department of Bioengineering University of MissouriColumbiaMO 65211USA

It has been hypothesized that leaflet substrates with a trilayer structure and anisotropicmechanical properties could be useful for the production of functional and long-lasting tissue-engineered *** investigate the influence of the anisotropic structural and mechanical characteristics of a substrate on cells,in this study,we electrospun trilayer anisotropic fibrous substrates and randomly oriented isotropic fibrous substrates(used as controls)from polycaprolactone ***,the random substrates had higher radial and lower circumferential tensile properties than the trilayer substrates;however,they had similar flexural *** valvular interstitial cells cultured on both substrates produced random and trilayer cell-cultured constructs,*** trilayer cell-cultured constructs had more anisotropic mechanical properties,17%higher cellular proliferation,14%more extracellular matrix(i.e.,collagen and glycosaminoglycan)production,and superior gene and protein expression,suggesting that more cells were in a growth state in the trilayer constructs than in the random ***,the random and radial layers of the trilayer constructs had more vimentin,collagen,transforming growth factor-beta 1(TGF-ß1),transforming growth factor-beta 3(TGF-ß3)gene expression than in the circumferential layer of the *** study verifies that the differences in structural,tensile,and anisotropic properties of the trilayer and random substrates influence the characteristics of the cells and ECM in the constructs.

关键词： Heart valve leaflet Trilayer Tissue engineering Fiber Electrospinning

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Geothermal Model of the Fore-Yenisey Sedimentary Basin——Transitional Structure between the Ancient Siberian Platform and the Young West Siberian Plate

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2022年第2期96卷 582-590页

作者： Dmitriy NOVIKOV Fedor DULTSEV yuriy FILIPPOV Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics SB RASNovosibirsk 630090Russia Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk 630090Russia

Results of the investigation into the geothermal regime of the Fore-Yenisey sedimentary basin, formed during the collision and subsidence of the Kas-Turukhan microcontinent and the western margin of the Siberian craton in the late Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic are reported. It was established that the structural and geothermal conditions of the upper Precambrian–Paleozoic sections are similar to those in the western regions of the Siberian platform and are characterized by rather low geothermal gradients(12.5–25.5 ℃/km). In the western parts of the basin, formation temperatures in the uppermost pre-Jurassic sediments are 50℃–85℃, decreasing eastward to 30℃–55℃. For the first time, the detailed geothermal model of the basin sedimentary fill was developed. This model allows predictions of the geothermal conditions of Earth’s interior.

关键词： geothermal model formation temperature Fore-Yenisey sedimentary basin West Siberia

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Influence of polyolefin fibers on the strength and deformability properties of road pavement concrete

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2019年第4期6卷 407-417页

作者： Olga Smirnova Alexey Kharitonov yuriy Belentsov Department of Constructing Mining Enterprises and Underground Structures Saint-Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg 199106Russia Department of Technology of Building Materials and Metrology Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil EngineeringSaint Petersburg 190005Russia Department of Building Materials and Technologies Emperor Alexander I St.Petersburg State Transport UniversitySaint Petersburg 190031Russia

Influence of the type and quantity of polyolefin fibers on the strength properties(compression strength, tensile strength in bending, strength in uniaxial tension), the deformation properties(elastic modulus, Poisson’s coefficient) and the abrasion resistance of cement concrete with water-to-cement ratio within 0.31 e0.55 were stated in the *** ways of fibers introduction into fresh concrete were investigated. It was shown that the fibers introduction method and procedure of mixing are the ways to improve the fibers uniform distribution in fresh concrete. The increase of the bending tensile strength and the uniaxial tensile strength of concrete with fibers reinforcement in comparison with the reference concrete was observed with the water-to-cement ratio decrease. The increase of uniaxial tensile strength at age of 28 days for concrete with macrofibers in amount of4.5 kg/m^3 was 23% and 29%;for macrofibers in quantity of 3 kg/m^3 was 19% and 26% with water-cement ratio equal to 0.49 and 0.31, respectively. The maximum reduction of abrasion in the range of 7.5%e10% was observed in concrete with water-to-cement ratio within0.44 e0.55 for all investigated types of fibers. The influence of fibers on the concrete abrasion with lower W/C ratio was negligible. The results can contribute to the rational use of modified polyolefin fibers in road pavement concrete.

关键词： Road pavement concrete Polyolefin fibers Strength Elastic modulus Abrasion Water-to-cement ratio

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Optical absorption and photoelectron collection properties of silicon wafers with conical quantum nanocrystals structure

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Nano-Micro Letters 2010年第3期2卷 149-153页

作者： yuriy Vashpanov Jae-Il Jeong Electrical and Computer Engineering Division of Hanyang Institute of Technology Hanyang University

A conical form of nano-sized quantum cluster was formed on the surface of p-type crystalline silicon [111] wafer by anode electrochemical etching in HF-based *** conical surface is highly effective in absorbing sunlight and transporting photoelectrons to semiconductor *** are because each cone has a graded band gap with the energy level in the range from 1.1 to 3 eV which can be considered as consisting of quantum dots in different *** the boron concentration on the surface of each cone gradually decreases from top to bottom,a continuously varying electrical field is created along the cone *** electric field is forcing photoelectrons generated in the cone to move rapidly to the direction perpendicular to wafer *** the drift time of photoelectrons can be less than their recombination time within the thin layer close to the bottom of the cone.

关键词： Silicon Nanocrystals Electrochemical etching Solar cells

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Ectomycorrhiza of Larix sibirica Ledeb. along the gradients of main ecological factors and elevation at the Northern and Subpolar Urals

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Journal of Mountain Science 2018年第12期15卷 2603-2613页

作者： SIZONENKO Tatyana Alexandrovna DUBROVSKIY yuriy Alexandrovich Institute of Biology of Komi Scientific Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russia SyktyvkarKommunistieheskaya str28Syktyvkar167000Russian Federation

Siberian larch(Larix sibirica Ledeb.) forests cover the largest areas in the Eurasian boreal zone, but there are insufficient data on its root system including the structure and functional traits of ectomycorrhizas(EM). The aim of this research is to find out if the morphological parameters of Larix sibirica EMs responded to the changes in elevation and main ecological factors(soil humidity, soil richness, soil acidity and habitat illumination). Using light microscopy, we studied EM diameter, root diameter, mantle width, and mantle volume share, share of tannin cells layers, EM density and EM length of Larix sibirica in two main types of plant communities along the elevation gradient at the Northern and Subpolar Urals. Differences in the environment were traced using phytoindication approach and the Ellenberg ecological scales. All the studied traits depend on the elevation and studied ecological factors. The diversity of fungal mantles is low, and the proportion of unstructured and pseudoparenchymatous mantles is high in response to the deterioration of the humidity, soil nitrogen content and acidity at higher-altitude habitats. Results of EM quantitative parameters measurements confirmed this pattern. We found a decline in the EM linear dimensions accompanied by a compensatory growth of the EM density with the raised elevation and the deterioration of environmental conditions.

关键词： Ectomycorrhiza Larix sibirica Anatomy Fungal mantles diversity Elevation Urals

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Thermal Stresses and Theorem on Decomposition

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Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2014年第2期31卷 175-179页

作者： Valeriy Lokhov yuriy Nyashin Department of Theoretical Mechanics and Biomechanics Perm National Research Polytechnic University

The thermal expansion strain is considered as a special case of *** authors proved the theorem on decomposition of eigenstrain existing in a body into two constituents:Impotent eigenstrain(not causing stress in any point of a body)and nilpotent eigenstrain(not causing strain in any point of a body).According to this theorem,the thermal stress can be easily found through the nilpotent *** the eigenstrain is an impotent one,the thermal stress *** this case,the eigenstrain must be *** authors suggest a new approach to measure of eigenstrain incompatibility and hence to estimate of thermal stresses.

关键词： eigenstrain thermal stresses decomposition impotent eigenstrain nilpotent eigenstrain functional space

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