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Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Ranges and Model Complexities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第1期22卷 142-157页

作者： youlongxia Zong-LiangYANG PaulL.STOFFA MrinalK.SEN InstituteforGeophysics TheJohnA.andKatherineG.JacksonSchoolofGeosciencesUniversityofTexasatAustin4412SpicewoodSpringRoadAustinTX78759-8500USA DepartmentofGeologicalSciences TheJohnA.andKatherineG.JacksonSchoolofGeosciencesUniversityofTexasatAustinUSA

Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibrationand uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts byemploying Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM wasdesigned to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within acommon modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complexmosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem,importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing. The model forcing data and surface flux datawere collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. Foreach site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well asrealistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parametersets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges givessimilar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce someunreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simplemode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and modelcomplexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posteriorprobability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heatfluxes. Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has moresignificant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.

关键词： optimal parameters uncertainty estimation CHASM model bayesian stochasticinversion parameter ranges model complexities

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