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Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

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Earthquake Science 2017年第5期30卷 251-267页

作者： Tianyun Wang Xing Jin yongxiang wei Yandan Huang Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration China Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China Fujian Earthquake Agency Fuzhou 350003China

Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region＇s peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and pre- cisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real- time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

关键词： Real-time numerical shake prediction· 2-Dspace model · Radiative transfer theory · Dataassimilation · Shakemap prediction

Real-time prediction of earthquake potential damage:A case study for the January 8,2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai,China

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Earthquake Research Advances 2023年第1期3卷 52-60页

作者： Jindong Song Jingbao Zhu yongxiang wei Shuilong Li Shanyou Li Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Institute of Engineering MechanicsChina Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Ministry of Emergency ManagementHarbin 150080China Fujian Earthquake Agency Fuzhou 350003China

It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster ***,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of *** EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential *** the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain ***,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future ***,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.

关键词： Earthquake early warning Potential damage Machine learning 2022 M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake Magnitude estimation On-site peak ground velocity prediction

Comparison of two earthquake early warning location methods

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Earthquake Science 2013年第1期26卷 15-22页

作者： Jun Li Xing Jin Hongcai Zhang yongxiang wei Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earthquake Administration Fuzhou University

According to earthquake catalog records of Fujian Seismic Network, the Tnow method and the fourstation continuous location method put forward by Jin Xing are inspected by using P-wave arrival information of the first four stations in each earthquake. It shows that the fourstation continuous location method can locate more seismic events than the Tnow method. By analyzing the results, it is concluded that the reason for this is that the Tnow method makes use of information from stations without being triggered, while some stations failed to be reflected in earthquake catalog because of discontinuous records or unclear records of seismic phases. For seismic events whose location results can be given, there is no obvious difference in location results of the two methods and positioning deviation of most seismic events is also not significant. For earthquakes outside the network, the positioning deviation may amplify as the epicentral distance enlarges, which may relate to the situation that the seismic stations are centered on one side of epicenter and the opening angle between seismic stations used for location and epicenter is small.

关键词： Earthquake early warning - Tnowlocation method Earthquake catalog Four-stationcontinuous location method

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

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Earthquake Science 2013年第5期26卷 351-356页

作者： Jun Li Xing Jin yongxiang wei Hongcai Zhang Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earthquake Administration Fuzhou University

In this article, the seismic records of Japan＇s Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

关键词： Earthquake early warning Near-fieldacceleration record Effective peak value

Methods for estimating rotational components of seismic ground motion and their numerical comparisons

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Earthquake Science 2020年第4期33卷 201-208页

作者： Chang Chen Yun Wang yongxiang wei Shuilong Li Qisheng Zhang MWMC Research Group School of Geophysics and Information TechnologyChina University of GeoscienceBeijing 100083China Fujian Earthquake Agency Fuzhou 530001China

Rotational components play an important role in natural earthquake research,engineering seismic investigation,building monitoring,seismic exploration and other *** researches mainly focus on three translational components,but less on rotational *** the precision of rotational sensing techniques has increased,many scholars have paid more attention to the seismic rotational *** the rotational observations are not very popular before and now,approximately converting the translational components into rotational components is utilized in rotation *** on numerical six-component seismic data with the finite difference method,we compare three different conversion methods,the travelling-wave,frequency-domain and the difference method,to analyze their characteristics and feasibilities when they are applied to estimate rotational components with translational observations.

关键词： rotational components travelling-wave method frequency-domain method difference method

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the s_c and P_d method for earthquake early warning systems

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Earthquake Science 2013年第1期26卷 23-31页

作者： Xing Jin Hongcai Zhang Jun Li yongxiang wei Qiang Ma Fujian Earthquake Administration Fuzhou 350003 China Institute of Engineering Mechanics China EarthquakeAdministration Harbin 150008 China

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

关键词： Earthquake early warning Earthquakemagnitude τc method Pa method

Progress of the earthquake early warning system in Fujian, China

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Earthquake Science 2013年第1期26卷 3-14页

作者： Xing Jin yongxiang wei Jun Li Hongcai Zhang Qiang Ma Lanchi Kang Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province Institute of Earthquake Mechanics China Earthquake Administration

In this article, we systematically introduce the atest progress of the earthquake early warning （EEW） ;ystem in Fujian, China. We focus on the following key echnologies and methods： continuous earthquake location md its error evaluation; magnitude estimation; reliability udgment of EEW system information; use of doubleparameter principle in EEW system information release hreshold; real-time estimation of seismic intensity and available time for target areas; seismic-monitoring network and data sharing platform; EEW system information ; elease and receiving platform; software test platform; and est results statistical analysis. Based on strong ground notion data received in the mainshock of the Wenchuan earthquake, the EEW system developed by the above algorithm is simulated online, and the results show that the ;ystem can reduce earthquake hazards effectively. In lddition, we analyzed four earthquake cases with magniude greater than 5.5 processed by our EEW system since he online-testing that was started one year ago, and results ndicate that our system can effectively reduce earthquake lazards and have high practical significance.

关键词： Earthquake early warning Continuously earthquake location Magnitudeestimation Double-parameter principle

Middle Pleistocene mammalian fauna of Shanyangzhai cave in Qinhuangdao area, China and its zoogeographical significance

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第21期55卷 72-76页

作者： ZHANG YunXiang LI yongxiang WANG wei GONG HuJun State Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics Department of Geology Northwest University Xi'an 710069 China

The mammalian fauna with clear characteristics of transitional region has been found in the Shanyangzhai cave of the Qin-huangdao area where the three Chinese zoogeographical regions (the Northeast region, the North region and the Mengxin region) join. Abundant fossils mainly are small mammals. The fauna includes typical species derived from three zoogeographical regions and can be compared with the middle Pleistocene faunas found in both the Zhoukoudian (the North region) and the Jinniushan (the Northeast region) faunas. Of 53 kinds of mammals identified at the site, 38 kinds can be seen on the list of the middle Pleis-tocene Zhoukoudian and the Jinniushan faunas, of which 29 kinds are the same as those in the Zhoukoudian fauna and 25 are in the Jinniushan fauna, 7 in the Salawusu fauna and account for 76%, 66% and 18% of the total, respectively. It is suggested based on the consistence of the constitution of the fauna and its recent zoogeographic division that the three regions in north China could be initially formed during the middle Pleistocene.

关键词：哺乳动物群秦皇岛地区中更新世中国洞穴地理学小型哺乳动物东北地区

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Resonance Analysis in a High-Rise Building: Combined Translational and Rotational Measurements

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第3期35卷 1069-1074页

作者： Linpeng Qin Yun Wang Chang Chen yongxiang wei Chunqi Liao Yi Zhang Chao Wang Wentao Wan Quanyang Shao School of Geophysics and Information Technology China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China Fujian Earthquake Agency Fuzhou 350003China Institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of SciencesGuiyang 550081China

0 INTRODUCTION Resonance frequency is an important indicator for structure health monitoring,which can be exacerbated by various natural forces,such as rainfall,earthquakes,and hurricanes(Wu et al.,2021;Shan et al.,2020;Gentile et al.,2016;Moser and Moaveni,2011).Clinton et al.(2006)found that changes in environmental factors could significantly affect the resonance frequency of the Millikan Library;and that compared with temperature,humidity and strong wind have greater impacts on resonance ***,some studies have confirmed the effects of environmental factors through mathematical statistical analyses,including Xia et al.(2006),Yuen and Kuok(2010),and Guéguen et al.(2017).Other studies(e.g.,Astorga et al.,2018)revealed a building’s self-healing ability,where the building’s resonance frequency drifts due to earthquake events,environmental factors,or random forced vibrations could gradually return to its original level,but the recovery time of frequency drift could be considerably different with respect to different environmental factors.

关键词： humidity rainfall earthquake