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Evidence of advancing spring xylem phenology in Chinese forests under global warming

Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第10期66卷 2187-2199页

作者： huihong XUE Feng ShI Fabio GENNARETTI yongshuo h.fu Bin hE Xiuchen WU Zhengtang GUO Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing100044China Institut de Recherche sur les Forêts Groupe de Recherche enÉcologie de la MRC-AbitibiUniversitédu Québec en Abitibi-TémiscamingueAmosJ9T 2L8Canada College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China

Phenological responses of vegetation to the ongoing warming trend impact current and future primary ***,few studies focus on wood phenology because its observed data are much scarcer,which hinders the estimation and prediction of forest carbon budgets over large ***,we use a physiological process-based tree-ring growth model(Vaganov-Shashkin model)to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of spring xylem phenology(start of the growing season of xylem,SOS_(x))in tree-ring sites of China during 1962-2016 *** model is calibrated on measured tree-ring width chronologies(70 tree-ring chronologies)and successfully validated with field observations of *** found that spring xylem phenology significantly advances during 1962-2016 CE period under global warming,with the rate of advance quickly increasing after the 1990s to an average of 0.25 days per *** preseason daily mean temperature is the main climatic driver for spring xylem phenology as indicated by its significant correlations with SOS_(x)at most sites(71%).Warmer preseason allows heat requirements for tree growth to be reached more quickly,with increase of 1℃in temperature of preseason anticipates SOS_(x)by 6 to 7 days,which will benefit the radial growth of trees in the relatively cold-humid *** addition,the significant positive correlation between the simulated spring xylem phenology and remote sensing derived phenology highlights the primary and secondary growth may be governed by the same variable(temperature)and change in the same direction with global *** study provides the long-term perspective on the spring xylem phenology variations covering most of China.

关键词： Tree-ring Xylem Phenology Vaganov-Shashkin model China

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Climate warming shifts the time interval between flowering and leaf unfolding depending on the warming period

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2022年第11期65卷 2316-2324页

作者： Shuxin Wang Zhaofei Wu Yufeng Gong Shubiao Wang Wei Zhang Shanshan Zhang hans J.De Boeck yongshuo h.fu College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100085China Beijing Zoo Beijing 100044China Plants and Ecosystems Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpAntwerpen 2000Belgium

The timing of flowering(FL)and leaf unfolding(LU)determine plants’reproduction and vegetative *** warming has substantially advanced FL and LU of temperate and boreal plants,but their responses to warming differ,which may influence the time interval between FL and LU(ΔLU-FL),thereby impacting plant fitness and intraspecific physiological *** on twigs collected from two flowering-first tree species,Populus tomentosa and Amygdalus triloba,we conducted a manipulative experiment to investigate the effects of winter chilling,spring warming and photoperiod on theΔ*** found that photoperiod did not affect theΔLU-FL of Amygdalus triloba,but shortenedΔLU-FL by 5.1 d of Populus ***,spring warming and winter chilling oppositely affected theΔLU-FL of both ***,low chilling accumulation extended theΔLU-FL by 3.8 and 9.4 d for Populus tomentosa and Amygdalus triloba,but spring warming shortened theΔLU-FL by 4.1 and 0.2 d℃^(-1).Our results indicate that climate warming will decrease or increase theΔLU-FL depending on the warming periods,i.e.,spring or *** shifted time interval between flowering and leaf unfolding may have ecological effects including affecting pollen transfer efficiency and alter the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystem.

关键词： chilling flowering leaf unfolding photoperiod spring phenology time interval warming period

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Warming-induced phenological mismatch between trees and shrubs explains high-elevation forest expansion

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National Science Review 2023年第10期10卷 62-71页

作者： Xiaoxia Li Eryuan Liang J.Julio Camarero Sergio Rossi Jingtian Zhang haifeng Zhu yongshuo h.fu Jian Sun Tao Wang Shilong Piao Josep Pe?uelas State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire sur les écosystèmes terrestres boréaux Département des Sciences FondamentalesUniversité du Québec à Chicoutimi Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC) College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal University CREAF Cerdanyola del Valles CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB

Despite the importance of species interaction in modulating the range shifts of plants,little is known about the responses of coexisting life forms to a warmer ***,we combine long-term monitoring of cambial phenology in sympatric trees and shrubs at two treelines of the Tibetan Plateau,with a meta-analysis of ring-width series from 344 shrubs and 575 trees paired across 11 alpine treelines in the Northern *** a spring warming of +1℃,xylem resumption advances by 2-4 days in trees,but delays by 3-8 days in *** divergent phenological response to warming was due to shrubs being3.2 times more sensitive than trees to chilling *** winters increased the thermal requirement for cambial reactivation in shrubs,leading to a delayed response to warmer *** meta-analysis confirmed such a mechanism across continental *** warming-induced phenological mismatch may give a competitive advantage to trees over shrubs,which would provide a new explanation for increasing alpine treeline shifts under the context of climate change.

关键词： chilling climate warming forcing treeline shift xylogenesis

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Vegetation phenology and its ecohydrological implications from individual to global scales

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Geography and Sustainability 2022年第4期3卷 334-338页

作者： Shouzhi Chen yongshuo h.fu Fanghua hao Xiaoyan Li Sha Zhou Changming Liu Jing Tang College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Central China Normal UniversityWuhan 430079China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Water Cycle and Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund UniversitySölvegatan 12SE-22362LundSweden Terrestrial Ecology Section Department of BiologyUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagen DK-2100Denmark

The Earth is experiencing unprecedented climate *** phenology has already showed strong response to the global warming,which alters mass and energy fluxes on terrestrial *** technology and method developments in remote sensing,computer science and citizen science,many recent phenology-related studies have been focused on *** this perspective,we 1)reviewed the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change and its impacts on carbon cycling,and reported that the effect of shifted phenology on the terrestrial carbon fluxes is substantially different between spring and autumn;2)elaborated how vegetation phenology affects ecohydrological processes at different scales,and further listed the key issues for each scale,i.e.,focusing on seasonal effect,local feedbacks and regional vapor transport for individual,watershed and global respectively);3)envisioned the potentials to improve current hydrological models by coupling vegetation phenology-related processes,in combining with machine learning,deep learning and scale transformation *** propose that comprehensive understanding of climate-macrophenology-hydrology interactions are essential and urgently needed for enhancing our understanding of the ecosystem response and its role in hydrological cycle under future climate change.

关键词： Global warming Marcophenology Carbon balance Ecohydrology

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Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics

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fundamental Research 2022年第5期2卷 708-715页

作者： Xiaojun Geng Yaru Zhang yongshuo h.fu Fanghua hao Ivan A.Janssens Josep Penuelas Shilong Piao Jing Tang Zhaofei Wu Jing Zhang Xuan Zhang Nils Chr.Stenseth College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China General Institute of Water Resources and hydropower Planning and Design(GIWP) Ministry of Water ResourcesBeijing 100053China Plants and Ecosystems Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium CREAF Cerdanyola del VallèsBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UABBellaterraBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain Pecking University Beijing100847China Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund UniversitySE22362 LundSweden Terrestrial Ecology Section Department of BiologyUniversity of CopenhagenDK2100CopenhagenDenmark Center for Permafrost(CENPERM) University of CopenhagenDK1350CopenhagenDenmark Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloN-0316 OsloNorway

Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes,albeit with large *** in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy,water and carbon balances at global *** this study,we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites,distributed across the northern hemisphere in China,Europe and the United States,to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity(S T,advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming)and correlation(R_(T),partial correlation coefficient)to temperature during the period *** all species and sites,we found that S_(T) decreased significantly by 0.15±0.02 d℃^(-1)°N^(-1),and R_(T) increased by 0.02±0.001°N^(-1)(both at Phe latitudinal patterns in R_(T) and S_(T) were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate,particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out *** results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.

关键词： Apparent temperature sensitivity Latitudinal pattern Leaf-out Temperate tree Climate change

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Progress in plant phenology modeling under global climate change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第9期63卷 1237-1247页

作者： yongshuo fu Xinxi LI Xuancheng ZhOU Xiaojun GENG Yahui GUO Yaru ZhANG College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Plant phenology is the study of the timing of recurrent biological events and the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic *** phenology affects the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems and determines vegetation feedback to the climate system by altering the carbon,water and energy fluxes between the vegetation and near-surface ***,an accurate simulation of plant phenology is essential to improve our understanding of the response of ecosystems to climate change and the carbon,water and energy balance of terrestrial *** studies have developed rapidly under global change conditions,while the research of phenology modeling is largely *** phenology modeling has become the primary limiting factor for the accurate simulation of terrestrial carbon and water *** the mechanism of phenological response to climate change and building process-based plant phenology models are thus important frontier *** this review,we first summarized the drivers of plant phenology and overviewed the development of plant phenology ***,we addressed the challenges in the development of plant phenology models and highlighted that coupling machine learning and Bayesian calibration into process-based models could be a potential approach to improve the accuracy of phenology simulation and prediction under future global change conditions.

关键词： Global change Plant phenology Phenology modeling Machine learning Ecophysiological experiment

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A comprehensive review on coupled processes and mechanisms of soil-vegetation-hydrology, and recent research advances

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第11期65卷 2083-2114页

作者： Zhongkai LI Xiaoyan LI Sha ZhOU Xiaofan YANG yongshuo fu Chiyuan MIAO Shuai WANG Guanghui ZhANG Xiuchen WU Chao YANG Yuanhong DENG State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Natural Resources Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 810016China School of Geographical Sciences Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 810016China College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Research on the coupling of soil,vegetation,and hydrological processes is not only a research hotspot in disciplines such as pedology,ecohydrology and Earth system science but also important for achieving sustainable ***,scientists from different disciplines usually study the coupling mechanism of soil-vegetation-hydrological processes at very different space and time scales,and the mechanistic connections between different scales are quite *** article reviewed research advances in coupled soil-vegetation-hydrological processes at different spatial scales—from leaf stomata to watershed and regional scales—and summarized the spatial upscaling methods and modeling approaches of coupled soil-vegetationhydrological *** identify and summarize the following coupling processes:(1)carbon-water exchange in leaf stomata and root-soil interface;(2)changes in soil aggregates and profile hydraulic properties caused by plant roots and water movement;(3)precipitation and soil moisture redistribution by plant canopy and root;(4)interactions between vegetation patches and local hydrological process;(5)links between plant community succession and soil development;and(6)links between watershed/regional water budget and vegetation phenology and ***,the limitations and knowledge gaps in the observations,mechanisms,scaling methods,and modeling approaches of coupled soil-vegetation-hydrological processes were *** achieve a deep integration of various coupling processes across different spatiotemporal scales,future work should strengthen multiscale,multifactor and multiprocess soil-vegetation-hydrology coupling observations and mechanism studies,develop new scaling methods,identify different feedback pathways,and take time-variable plant behavior and soil hydraulic properties into account during modeling.

关键词： Ecohydrological process Soil process Plant-soil feedback Modeling approaches Scaling method

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2022年夏季长江流域复合高温干旱事件的影响及应对

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水资源保护 2023年第6期39卷 46-52页

作者：郝增超张璇郝芳华付永硕北京师范大学水科学研究院北京100875

基于ERA5月尺度数据,分别计算干旱指标(SPI)和高温指标(STI),从复合型极端事件的角度分析了长江流域2022年夏季复合高温干旱事件及影响。研究结果表明:该事件是长江流域1979年以来覆盖范围最广的复合高温干旱事件,导致水资源供给减少,... 详细信息

基于ERA5月尺度数据,分别计算干旱指标(SPI)和高温指标(STI),从复合型极端事件的角度分析了长江流域2022年夏季复合高温干旱事件及影响。研究结果表明:该事件是长江流域1979年以来覆盖范围最广的复合高温干旱事件,导致水资源供给减少,影响农业生产及民众健康,同时导致电力供需失衡,增加森林火灾风险;未来应在复合高温干旱事件的发生机制、联合监测和预测、影响评估、联合调度及适应性措施等方面加强研究。

关键词：干旱高温复合型极端事件气候变化长江流域

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夏玉米和亚洲玉米螟物候同步性研究

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中国科学：生命科学 2021年第4期51卷 462-471页

作者：王姝心郭亚会付永硕刘玉梅北京师范大学水科学研究院北京100875 菏泽学院农业与生物工程学院菏泽274015

玉米是我国主要粮食作物之一,其生长和产量受到气候变化及病虫害的重要影响.物候同步性指不同物候事件的匹配程度,其作为表征物种间相互作用的一个重要指标,对于指导农业生产具有非常重要的意义.在自然生态系统中,物种间物候同步性的变... 详细信息

玉米是我国主要粮食作物之一,其生长和产量受到气候变化及病虫害的重要影响.物候同步性指不同物候事件的匹配程度,其作为表征物种间相互作用的一个重要指标,对于指导农业生产具有非常重要的意义.在自然生态系统中,物种间物候同步性的变化可以由两个机制共同解释.一方面,不同物种的生长发育速率对环境因素的响应具有差异;另一方面,物种为更好地适应同步性变化后的环境而产生进化.夏玉米生长发育物候事件与亚洲玉米螟间的物候同步性关系,尤其物候同步性对气候变化的响应,目前研究较少.基于1995~2012年间菏泽市三站点的夏玉米物候期、亚洲玉米螟成虫高峰期以及气象数据,本文系统研究了玉米物候和玉米螟物候的同步性关系.结果发现,夏玉米物候具有遗留效应,夏玉米播种期影响了拔节期、抽雄期,进而导致夏玉米拔节期、抽雄期和亚洲玉米螟成虫高峰期间的物候同步性呈现出非线性的变化.这些结果表明,人为控制的播种期变化很大程度上改变了夏玉米生长发育过程,进而影响玉米螟发生时间和种群数量,最终影响夏玉米的产量.本研究结果对于理解夏玉米物候的变化机制及其与玉米螟物候的同步性关系,防治玉米虫害,提高玉米产量,积极应对气候变化具有非常重要的意义.

关键词：物候同步性人为因素气候变化夏玉米亚洲玉米螟

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基于机器学习的地下水水质预测研究

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北京师范大学学报（自然科学版） 2022年第2期58卷 261-268页

作者：肖燚郭亚会李明蔚付永硕孙峰北京师范大学水科学研究院北京100875 水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心) 北京100875

基于实测的地下水水质数据(ph、总硬度、溶解性总固体、硫酸盐、氯化物、Fe、Mn 7种)和气象数据(平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、20:00-20:00降水量、日降水量≥0.1 mm的时间、最大日降水量8种),分别使用B... 详细信息

基于实测的地下水水质数据(ph、总硬度、溶解性总固体、硫酸盐、氯化物、Fe、Mn 7种)和气象数据(平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、20:00-20:00降水量、日降水量≥0.1 mm的时间、最大日降水量8种),分别使用BP神经网络、随机森林(RF)和支持向量机(SVM)构建了地下水水质参数的机器学习预测模型.对于每一种水质参数,分别使用不同的机器学习算法基于不同滞后期的数据进行模拟,将结果与实测水质进行对比,选择精度最高的机器学习模型及其对应的滞后期作为该水质参数的最优模型和最佳滞后期.结果表明,不同机器学习方法和滞后期的选择对预测精度影响很大,BP神经网络对ph(R^(2)=0.225,RMSE为2.411)、总硬度(R^(2)=0.503,RMSE为47.973mg·L^(-1))、氯化物(R2=0.994,RMSE为0.544 mg·L^(-1))和Fe(R^(2)=0.302,RMSE为7.772 mg·L^(-1))的预测精度最高,RF对硫酸盐(R^(2)=0.908,RMSE为3.788 mg·L^(-1))和Mn(R^(2)=0.522,RMSE为0.429 mg·L^(-1))的预测精度最高,BP神经网络、RF和SVM对溶解性总固体的预测性能均较好(R^(2)=0.994~0.996,RMSE为674.660~950.470 mg·L^(-1)).此外,硫酸盐和Mn预测模型对应的最佳滞后期为0个月,溶解性总固体和氯化物预测模型对应的最佳滞后期为1个月,ph、总硬度和Fe预测模型对应的最佳滞后期为2个月.

关键词：地下水水质 BP神经网络随机森林支持向量机

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