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Outbreak Information Delivery to Families with (Pre)School Children and Its Contribution

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2019年第12期7卷 31-43页

作者： Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Michiko Nohora National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan Tokyo Kasei University Tokyo Japan

Background: Infection transmission among them occurs easily and sometimes causes outbreaks at facilities where children live in groups. Early response is necessary for infection control measures to avoid larger clusters. In Japan, (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System ((N)SASSy), which is a kind of school absenteeism surveillance, has activated since 2007 and covers about 60% of all schools and 40% of all nursery schools in 2017. Objective: The objective of the present paper is investigation and demonstration of how caregivers receive information related to infectious diseases in Japan and how (N)SASSy contributes health of children. Method: We randomly selected subjects with children by pre-fecture in October, 2017. The survey questionnaire asked background information and information about infectious diseases to maintain health in children. We regressed health concern variables on background information and information provision situation about community outbreaks using weighted logistic regression. Results: We received responses from 1172 people. Estimation results showed higher concern about a facility providing information about community outbreak. Caregivers whose children attend facilities provided about community outbreak or covered (N)SASSy significantly higher opportunity to arrange a schedule when a child has a high fever. Discussion: The obtained results demonstrated that activation in (N)SASSy affects the possibility of arranging a schedule when a child has a high fever. This capability might improve community health.

关键词： School Absenteeism Surveillance Outbreak Information Families with (Pre)School Children Nursery School Infection Control

Effect of the Routine Varicella Immunization on Herpes Zoster in Japan in the First Half of the Year

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2018年第11期6卷 30-36页

作者： Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Miwako Kamei National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan School of Pharmacy Nihon University Chiba Japan

In Japan, herpes zoster is not monitored officially or nationwide. Recently, the databases of all electronic medical claims nationwide (NDBEMC) have been available for research. We use NDBEMC from April 2011 to March 2015. To evaluate the effects of initiation of routine immunization for varicella in children, we regressed the number of herpes zoster patients on the dummy variable for the routine immunization for varicella in children with and without a linear time trend. The estimated coefficient for the routine immunization for varicella was 0.5157 and its p-value was 0.001. However, if the time trend was added as an explanatory variable, the estimated coefficient for the routine immunization for varicella changed to be -0.039 and its p-value was 0.384. It means that the routine immunization for varicella was 7.8% higher after introduction than before. However, it was presumed to reflect such an upward trend.

关键词： National Database of Electronic Medical Claims Herpes Zoster Routine Immunization Varicella

Providing Infectious Disease Information to Child-Rearing Families and Its Evaluation

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Health 2019年第9期11卷 1135-1146页

作者： Michiko Nohora Junko Kurita Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Tokyo Kasei University Tokyo Japan The Graduate School of Health Sciences Ibaraki Prefectural University of Health Sciences Ibaraki Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan

Background: Earlier study without actual trial indicated that caregivers needed delivery of information about outbreak situations independently of their job status. This report describes, for about two months in winter, actual delivery outbreak information to families with preschool children. The study objective was to confirm the usefulness of this information delivery. Method: Participants receiving outbreak information were recruited from the Child Care Support Service in a ward in Tokyo, Japan. Outbreak information was obtained from the Nursery School Absenteeism Surveillance System (NSASSy) covering approximately 40% of all nursery schools in Japan, prescription surveillance and other resources. Delivery of outbreak information started in December 2017 and ceased at the end of February in 2018. After the delivery period, a questionnaire survey was administered to participants. Results: For this area, NSASSy showed the most dominant disease was influenza, with 707 patients, followed by group A streptococcal pharyngitis with 98 patients. The outbreak peak was inferred to be as Monday, 22 January, and it was announced by e-mail on 23 January. Of the 202 persons joined this trial, 60 participants responded to the questionnaire survey after the delivery period. Of those respondents, 98% wanted delivery of that information to continue. Conclusion: We found that almost all respondents confirmed usefulness of the information about infectious diseases which was delivered.

关键词： Caregivers Child Care Support Infectious Diseases Outbreak Situation Prevention

Simple Simulation for COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei, China to Predict Outbreak in Wuhan, the Initial Case in Wuhan, and the Epidemic in Japan as of 11 February, 2020

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2020年第6期8卷 56-61页

作者： Junko Kurita Tamie Sugawara Yoshiyuki Sugishita yasushi ohkusa Department of Nursing Collage of Nursing Tokiwa University Ibaraki Japan Infectious Disease Surveillance Center National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan

Object: Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic represents a matter of concern not only for public health or medicine but also for Earth’s general population. This study predicts outbreaks in Wuhan and in Japan as of 11 February, 2020.Method: We applied a simple SIR model to data published by Hubei public health authorities. Moreover, into the model, we incorporate mild and asymptomatic cases from experiences of Japanese residents of Wuhan up to the outbreak. Finally, we predict an outbreak in Japan based on 10,000 iterations of a simulation conducted under the assumption of infected people including mild cases visiting Japan according to the estimated distribution of patients in Wuhan since the date on which the initial case occurred to the date when travel from Wuhan to Japan was suspended. Results: Results suggest the basic reproduction number, R0, as 2.84;its 95% confidence interval (CI) was [2.35, 3.33]. The peak is estimated to be reached on March 11. Its 95% CI peak date is 29 February to 27 March. The 95% CI peak date in Japan is 26 April to 2 May. The greatest number of patients at the peak with severe symptoms was estimated as 858.3 thousand. Discussion and Conclusion: Our obtained R0 of 2.84 approximates an earlier estimate. We predicted the greatest number of patients at the peak with severe symptoms as 858.3 thousand in Japan. This number is 63% greater than the highest daily peak of influenza.

关键词： COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan SIR Model Prediction Mild Case Asymptomatic Case

Does Family with Children Need Information about Infectious Disease?

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2018年第12期6卷 53-63页

This paper reports a study of the necessity of providing information that is of the most concern of caregivers: health management, responses to sudden onset, and outbreaks of infectious diseases. We asked users and providers of Child Care Support Service in ward A of Tokyo, as respondents, whether they would like to receive information related to infectious diseases. Of questionnaires sent by mail to 383 providers and 3101 users, we received 18 responses from providers and 88 responses from users. All providers and users were required to provide information related to infectious diseases. The most often reported responses were “straight-out hand washing, mask wearing, gargling, and disinfection”, followed by “voluntary restraint of outside activities”, and “measures for illnesses of the family or children.” Results show that caregivers would like to receive information about infectious diseases because they have many health management concerns about their children.

关键词： Caregivers Child Care Support Infectious Diseases Outbreak Situation Prevention

Application of the Probability Model for Starting Period to Initiate to Take Palivizumab by Prefecture Using National Official Sentinel Surveillance in Japan

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2020年第1期8卷 56-63页

作者： Junko Kurita Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Michiko Nohara Prefectural University of Health Sciences Ami Ibaraki Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan Tokyo Kasei University Tokyo Japan

Background: Palivizumab were used for the premature infant or a high-risk infant with congenital heart disease. However, recently outbreak pattern of respiratory syncytial (RS) virus infection has been varying year by year. Moreover, it also has some regional difference. Therefore, the object of the present study was to develop early detection of the timing of that outbreak had started in each prefecture. Method: We used data in National Official Sentinel Surveillance for Infectious Diseases (NOSSID). Study period was March 16th, 2011 to December 30th, 2018. We defined stating period to initiate to take palivizumab as 8 - 12 weeks before from the peak of outbreak. We estimated whether the week is included in starting period or not from April 1st to the peak of outbreak by the past number of patients of RS virus infection on week and its squared. Additionally, we have to take delay in NOSSID into consideration. Results: In nationwide, the last two seasons, the model predicted precisely the starting period. At prefectural level, the model predicted the starting period precisely in 16.6% of all year and prefectures pairs. When we consider the delay in NOSSID into consideration, the patients can start to take in 14.9% of all year and prefectures pairs. Discussion and Conclusion: The result of the probability model was not good, and thus we have to develop more sophisticated model for prediction at prefecture level.

关键词： Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection National Official Sentinel Surveillance Palivizumab Probability Model Starting Period

Short Term Prediction of Infectious Diseases Patients from Prescription Surveillance

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2018年第9期6卷 61-68页

作者： Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Hirokazu Kawanohara Miwako Kamei National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan EM Systems Co. Ltd. Osaka Japan School of Pharmacy Nihon University Chiba Japan

In Japan, the incidence of almost all common pediatric infectious diseases has been monitored, with 7 - 10 day delays, at medical institutions through the National Official Sentinel Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NOSSID). On the other hand, based on prescriptions filled at external pharmacies, Prescription Surveillance (PS) collects information and provides estimated numbers of influenza, varicella, and gastroenteritis infectious (GI) patients to the public the following morning. For precise, and real-time estimation of incidences of common pediatric infectious diseases, we evaluated predictive power of PS for diseases other than influenza, varicella, and GI. Results demonstrated that PS information has sufficient predictive power for pharyngoconjunctival fever, group A streptococcal pharyngitis, exanthem subitum, and mumps, some predictive power for RS virus infection, erythema infectiosum and herpangina, but insufficient predictive power for hand, foot and mouth disease.

关键词： Prescription Surveillance Pharmacy Sentinel Surveillance Pediatric Infectious Disease

Retrospective Evaluation for ORCA Surveillance Comparison with Prescription Surveillance

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2019年第12期7卷 1-8页

作者： Tomoaki Ueno Tamie Sugawara yasushi ohkusa Hirokazu Kawanohara Miwako Kamei ORCA Management Organization Co. Ltd. Tokyo Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan EM Systems Co. Ltd. Osaka Japan School of Pharmacy Nihon University Chiba Japan

Background: “Online Receipt Computer Advantage” (ORCA) surveillance, an online medical claim service produced and provided freely to medical facilities by the Japan Medical Association, has been available for public use since 2010. However, its preciseness has not been evaluated. The object of the present study is comparison with ORCA surveillance and prescription surveillance (PS), which is the most reliable daily surveillance for influenza nationwide in Japan, and evaluating preciseness of ORCA surveillance. Method: We specifically examined influenza as a targeted disease. We regarded PS as the gold standard daily real-time monitoring system for influenza nationwide and for each prefecture. This study assesses correlation and discrepancies between ORCA and PS results for influenza nationwide and by prefecture. Results: Nationwide, the correlation coefficient of PS and ORCA was 0.9653;the discrepancy rate was 27%. Among prefectures, results show that Mie and Fukui prefectures had two quite similar epidemic curves. Conclusion: Results demonstrate that ORCA surveillance is comparable to PS nationwide. However, some prefectures exhibited comparable results whereas others did not. ORCA surveillance cannot break down to the municipal level.

关键词： ORCA Surveillance Prescription Surveillance Influenza Real-Time Daily Surveillance Preciseness

Descriptive Epidemiology for <i>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</i>Infection Using (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System, and Proposal for Countermeasures

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2018年第10期6卷 33-42页

作者： Junko Kurita Natsuki Nagasu Noriko Nagata Naomi Sakurai yasushi ohkusa Tamie Sugawara The Graduate School of Health Sciences Ibaraki Prefectural University Ibaraki Japan Health Services Disease Control Division Department of Health and Social Services Ibaraki Japan Ibaraki Prefectural Institute of Public Health Ibaraki Japan Center for Medical Sciences Ibaraki Prefectural University of Health Sciences Ibaraki Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases Tokyo Japan

Objective: We present descriptive epidemiology of Mycoplasma infection using the (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System ((N)SASSy) in addition to national official sentinel surveillance for infectious diseases (NOSSID). It is expected to be helpful for early detection and response to outbreak of Mycoplasma infection and also to be useful for antimicrobial resistance measures. Method: The study period was 2010-2014 seasons. The study area was the whole of Ibaraki prefecture, Japan. NOSSID reports the number of patients with Mycoplasma pneumonia from 13 sentinel hospitals. We compare the number of patients and the incidence rate of NOSSID with the same information in (N)SASSy. Result: In NOSSID, the largest number of patients by age was 27 patients of one year old in 2012. (N)SASSy showed that the incidence rate in the elementary schools is high in 2011 and 2012. Especially, the second grade students were the highest. Discussion: Even though Mycoplasma infection is well known as a pediatric disease, we showed that second grade was the highest in incidence at first. Because (N)SASSy is timely and real-time information collection, evaluation and sharing countermeasures with (nursery) schools, public health centers, and physicians are useful for students and nursery school children, and communities. Conclusion: Because mycoplasma infection is common pediatric infectious diseases and because some patients rarely develop severe infections, we must prevent larger outbreaks. (N)SASSy can provide timely intervention at the initial phase of outbreak by monitoring situations in (nursery) schools and comparing data to baseline information.

关键词： Mycoplasma Infection (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System Surveillance