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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Solar Energy Resources in Tibet

Energy Engineering 2024年第1期121卷 43-57页

作者： yanbo shen Yang Gao Yueming Hu Xin Yao Wenzheng Yu Yubing Zhang Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center forWind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China School of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China

The Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in the *** the process of achieving carbon neutrality in China,the development and utilization of solar energy resources in the region will play an important *** this study,the gridded solar resource data with 1km resolution in Tibet were obtained by spatial correction and downscaling of SMARTS *** this basis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the region in the past 30 years(1991–2020)are finely evaluated,and the annual global horizontal radiation resource is *** results show that:1)The average annual global horizontal radiation amount in Tibet is 1816 kWh/m^(2).More than 60%of the area belongs to the“Most abundant”(GHI≥1750 kWh/m^(2))area of China’s solar energy resources category A,and nearly 40%belongs to the“Quite abundant”(1400≤GHI<1750)area of China’s solar energy resource category B.2)In space,the solar energy resources in Tibet increased gradually from north to south and from east to ***,Central and Eastern Shigatse,Shannan,and Southwestern Ali are the most abundant cities,with a maximum annual radiation level of 2189 kWh/m2.3)In terms of time,the total horizontal radiation in Tibet was the highest in May and the lowest in December.74%of the total area belongs to the“Very stable”(R_(w)≥0.47)area of solar resource stability category A,and 26%belongs to the“stable”(0.36≤R_(w)<0.47)area of solar resource stability category *** energy resources in the region show the characteristics of both strong and *** solar energy resources in the region have shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past 30 years,with an average decline of about 12.86(kWh/m2)per decade.4)In terms of solar radiation resources reaching the earth’s surface,the theoretical total amount of annual horizontal radiation in Tibet is about 240.07 billion tons of standard coal or 222.91 billion kilowatts on average.

关键词： Tibet solar resource spatiotemporal distribution

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Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1417-1437页

作者： Mengmeng SONG Dazhi YANG Sebastian LERCH Xiang'ao XIA Gokhan Mert YAGLI Jamie M.BRIGHT yanbo shen Bai LIU Xingli LIU Martin Janos MAYER School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin150001China Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 3569118HeidelbergGermany Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology(KIT)Bluecherstr.1776185KarlsruheGermany Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore(SERIS) National University of Singapore(NUS)Singapore117574Singapore UK Power Networks LondonSE61NPUK China Meteorological Administration Beijing100081China Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Harbin150001China Department of Energy Engineering Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringBudapest University of Technology and EconomicsMűegyetem rkp.3H-1111BudapestHungary

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,*** such,forecast calibration tools have become *** those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive ***,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated *** this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without *** overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive *** empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing *** and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all ***,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

关键词： ensemble weather forecasting forecast calibration non-crossing quantile regression neural network CORP reliability diagram post-processing

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论民用机场内涝风险评估标准的特殊性——基于广州白云国际机场内涝风险评估工作

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给水排水 2024年第5期50卷 89-94页

作者：李琛申延波高川民航机场规划设计研究总院有限公司北京100029

民用机场占地面积广,用地属性庞杂,其既包含了航站区、工作区、货运区等“类城市”区域,也包含飞行区这样与城市在建设、运行、管理上截然不同的区域,因此城市内涝评价标准应用在民用机场时常存在一定不匹配的问题。广州白云国际机场总... 详细信息

民用机场占地面积广,用地属性庞杂,其既包含了航站区、工作区、货运区等“类城市”区域,也包含飞行区这样与城市在建设、运行、管理上截然不同的区域,因此城市内涝评价标准应用在民用机场时常存在一定不匹配的问题。广州白云国际机场总占地面积35 km^(2),降雨量大、降雨雨型呈单峰且集中、周边水文条件复杂,本期建成后共设5条跑道、2个航站区,复杂程度居国内枢纽机场之最,具有典型性。基于广州白云国际机场内涝风险评估工作,就民用机场内涝风险评估过程中暴露出的问题和与城市内涝评价标准的异同进行了深入的讨论。

关键词：民用机场 Infoworks ICM 内涝风险评估

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气候变化对太阳能资源评估典型气象年选取的影响

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干旱区地理 2024年第6期47卷 922-931页

作者：樊静申彦波常蕊新疆气候中心新疆乌鲁木齐830001 中国气象局公共服务中心北京100081 国家气候中心北京100081

选取新疆8个辐射气象观测站1961—2022年逐日总辐射观测资料,分析新疆区域地面总辐射变化特征,利用风速、气温、湿度和露点温度等资料构建太阳能资源评估典型气象年挑选方法(Sandia法),对比分析1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010... 详细信息

选取新疆8个辐射气象观测站1961—2022年逐日总辐射观测资料,分析新疆区域地面总辐射变化特征,利用风速、气温、湿度和露点温度等资料构建太阳能资源评估典型气象年挑选方法(Sandia法),对比分析1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010年、1991—2020年4个标准气候态下Sandia方法选取典型代表年的差异。结果表明:(1)1961—2022年北疆地区地面总辐射呈先减少后增加的趋势,南疆和东疆持续减少但1990年代以后减少趋势放缓,秋、冬季辐射减少速率明显大于春、夏季。(2)Sandia方法选取的4个标准气候态下典型气象年总辐射年值与平均值接近,相对误差介于±3%之间。(3)随着气象要素的变化,Sandia方法选取典型气象年总辐射与平均值的绝对误差在增大,北疆站点不同时期选取典型月总辐射与同期月均值的差异明显小于南疆和东疆,与北疆总辐射年际变化小于南疆和东疆的结果一致。(4)新疆区域月总辐射的高值时段集中出现在6—7月,各站1—3月总辐射普遍大于10—12月。(5)Sandia法挑选典型月与月平均值的差异存在较大波动性,且1981—2000年、1991—2020年波动幅度明显大于之前2个时期,表明随着气候要素的变化,典型代表年的不确定性在增加。

关键词：气候变化太阳能资源评估典型气象年新疆

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基于随机森林算法的FY-4A地表入射太阳辐射空间订正

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太阳能学报 2024年第1期45卷 109-115页

作者：徐丽娜申彦波胡玥明邢旭煌内蒙古自治区气象服务中心呼和浩特010051 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室海口570100 中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京100081

筛选时次、天顶角、FY-4A AGRI全圆盘地表入射太阳辐射(SSI)、云覆盖率(CFR)、云检测(CLM)以及云类型(CLT)产品构建特征向量,采用随机森林方法开展FY-4A SSI逐时产品的空间订正研究。结果表明、随机森林算法对于提升FY-4A SSI产品的空... 详细信息

筛选时次、天顶角、FY-4A AGRI全圆盘地表入射太阳辐射(SSI)、云覆盖率(CFR)、云检测(CLM)以及云类型(CLT)产品构建特征向量,采用随机森林方法开展FY-4A SSI逐时产品的空间订正研究。结果表明、随机森林算法对于提升FY-4A SSI产品的空间分布精度具有明显作用,订正后相关系数、平均偏差、平均绝对误差均有不同程度的改善,且能很好地解决FY-4A SSI产品的过高估计及FY-4A SSI产品在太阳天顶角大于70°时无观测问题,有效提高FY-4A SSI产品在高纬度地区的可用性。

关键词：太阳辐照度卫星数据反演空间订正随机森林

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基于高塔数据的山区丘陵与平原湖区风能参数差异分析

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南方能源建设 2024年第1期11卷 19-32页

作者：许杨陈正洪申彦波孟丹湖北省气象服务中心湖北武汉430205 湖北省气象能源技术开发中心湖北武汉430205 中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京100081

[目的]为促进风能资源开发的持续健康发展,为内陆地区风能资源的合理开发及利用提供科学依据,文章重点分析山区丘陵与平原湖区主要风能参数特征及差异。[方法]选用11个塔高为90~150 m的测风塔1整年观测资料,对湖北省山区、丘陵、平原及... 详细信息

[目的]为促进风能资源开发的持续健康发展,为内陆地区风能资源的合理开发及利用提供科学依据,文章重点分析山区丘陵与平原湖区主要风能参数特征及差异。[方法]选用11个塔高为90~150 m的测风塔1整年观测资料,对湖北省山区、丘陵、平原及湖区等5种不同地形形态下的主要风能参数特征及差异进行探讨。[结果]分析结果表明:(1)各塔高层风速日变幅在1.0~2.3 m/s,山区丘陵地形下变幅明显大于平原湖区,且各层变化趋于一致,均为白天小晚上大,平原湖区低层风速日变化与高层特征相反,为白天大晚上小;(2)各塔综合风切变指数在0.055~0.328之间,在山区丘陵地形下大于平原湖区,风切变指数日变幅在0.063~0.378,变化特征为白天小晚上大,平原湖区风切变日变幅明显大于山区丘陵,大风情况下的风切变在山区丘陵地形下分布较为离散,平原湖区地形下则相对较为集中,基本稳定在0.1~0.2之间;(3)各塔高层有效风速段年平均湍流强度为0.13~0.18,山区地形下大于平原湖区,各塔湍流强度日变幅在0.07~0.15,变化特征均为白天大晚上小,但山区丘陵地形下变幅明显大于平原湖区。[结论]不同地形下的风能资源特征在动力和热力作用下表现出明显的时空变化差异,分析结果可为风能资源开发利用提供指导。

关键词：风能资源测风塔特征分析山区丘陵平原湖区参数差异

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Classification of Desertification on the North Bank of Qinghai Lake

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第7期72卷 695-711页

作者： Wenzheng Yu Xin Yao Li Shao Jing Liu yanbo shen Hanxiaoya Zhang School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Environmental Science&Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Faculty of Science The University of Auckland1010New Zealand

In this paper,RS,GIS and GPS technologies are used to interpret the remote sensing images of the north shore of Qinghai Lake from 1987 to 2014 according to the inversion results of vegetation coverage(FVC),albedo,land surface temperature(LST),soil moisture(WET)and other major parameters after image preprocessing,such as radiometric correction,geometric correction and atmospheric *** this basis,the decision tree classification method based on landsat8 remote sensing image is used to classify the desertification land in this area,and the development and change of desertification in this period are *** results show that the fluctuation of desertification land area in this area increased during the study period,but from 2003 to 2014,the land area of mild desertification,moderate desertification and severe desertification landwere respectively decreased 0.92,145.89 and 29.39 km2,while the area of serious desertification land still has a slow increasing *** the driving force of desertification change trend in this area is caused by human factors or global change needs to be further studied.

关键词： Remote sensing Qinghai Lake desertification classification

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Characteristics of Desertification Change in Lake Basin Area in Gangcha County

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第11期73卷 3771-3793页

作者： Wenzheng Yu Mingxuan Zhu Li Shao yanbo shen Haitao Liu Tianliang Chen Hanxiaoya Zhang School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Faculty of Science The University of AucklandAuckland1010New Zealand

Qinghai Lake Basin area in Gangcha county is selected as the study area in terms of desertification change features in this *** on the remote sensing(RS)and global positioning system(GPS)technologies,the desertification information range from 1989 to 2014 in the study area is *** the method of the decision tree,the desertification in the research area is been divided into four grades including mild desertification,moderate desertification,severe desertification and serious *** change characteristics of desertification in the study area were analyzed in detail,which showed that the desertification in the study area experienced a process of first development and then a *** rapid development of desertification appears in the 1990s,where about 1101.22 kilometers of desertification area was increased in this *** the twenty-first Century,the desertification is gradually significant recovered and local area exist intensified *** are tendencies of interactive transform in different types of *** tendencies of different degrees of desertification land are rising,and there’re some differences in rising rates,where the expansion rate of moderate desertification is the biggest,increasing by 7.27 kilometers per year.

关键词： Desertification classification desertification expansion rate grass land change the Qinghai Lake

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Evolution of Desertification Types on the North Shore of Qinghai Lake

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第5期71卷 3635-3646页

作者： Wenzheng Yu Jintao Cui Yang Gao Mingxuan Zhu Li Shao yanbo shen Xiaozhao Zhang Chen Guo Hanxiaoya Zhang School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing210098China School of Environmental Science&Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China China Huaneng Group Co. Ltd.Beijing100036China China Huaneng Group Cleaning Energy Technology Academy Co. Ltd.100081China Faculty of Science The University of Auckland1010New Zealand

Land desertification is a widely concerned ecological environment *** the evolution trend of desertification types is of great significance to prevent and control land *** this study,we applied the decision tree classification method,to study the land area and temporal and spatial change law of different types of desertification in the North Bank of Qinghai Lake area from 1987 to 2014,based on the current land use situation and TM remote sensing image data of Haiyan County,Qinghai Province,The results show that the area of mild desertification land and moderate desertification land in the study area has decreased,while the area of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land has increased significantly in the past 30 *** area of desertification land decreased by 4.02 km2,of which the area of mild and moderate desertification land decreased by 39.73 km2 and 36.8 km2 respectively,and the area of severe and extreme desertification land increased by 32.78 km2 and 39.73 km2 *** for the mutual transformation relationship,the transformation from severe desertification land to extreme desertification land is the main,and the junction of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land is the sensitive area of *** the north shore of Qinghai Lake,the sandy land tends to expand *** research provides reference basis for local land desertification monitoring,and has a great guidance for local effective land desertification and soil and water conservation.

关键词： Qinghai Lake desertification evolution mechanism remote sensing

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面向2024-T3铝片的机器人超声喷丸校形研究

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机械制造 2024年第5期62卷 49-54,68页

作者：沈琰波陈思鲁 Adnan Saifan 左兰壮翟锰钢赵夙张驰杨桂林宁波大学机械工程与力学学院浙江宁波315211 中国科学院宁波材料技术与工程研究所浙江省机器人与智能制造装备技术重点实验室浙江宁波315201 中国科学院宁波材料技术与工程研究所高能超声波技术团队浙江宁波315201

超声喷丸技术在成型校形、表面改性等方面具有广阔的应用前景。为了了解不同工艺参数对喷丸效果的影响,以2024-T3铝片为研究对象,将超声喷丸设备搭载在工业机器人平台上进行试验,以试片弧高变化作为评价指标,分析加工距离、超声振幅、... 详细信息

超声喷丸技术在成型校形、表面改性等方面具有广阔的应用前景。为了了解不同工艺参数对喷丸效果的影响,以2024-T3铝片为研究对象,将超声喷丸设备搭载在工业机器人平台上进行试验,以试片弧高变化作为评价指标,分析加工距离、超声振幅、喷丸次数对喷丸效果的影响。结果表明,弧高随加工距离的增大而减小,随超声振幅的增大而增大,随喷丸次数的增加呈现先增大后趋于稳定的趋势。提出一种工艺参数组合选择方法,得到多种常用工艺参数组合下的弧高变化曲线及相关参数,为不同工件待校形区域的校形工艺参数选择提供参考。

关键词：铝片机器人超声喷丸校形研究

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