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Characteristics of Desertification Change in Lake Basin Area in Gangcha County

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第11期73卷 3771-3793页

作者： Wenzheng Yu Mingxuan Zhu Li Shao yanbo shen Haitao Liu Tianliang Chen Hanxiaoya Zhang School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Faculty of Science The University of AucklandAuckland1010New Zealand

Qinghai Lake Basin area in Gangcha county is selected as the study area in terms of desertification change features in this *** on the remote sensing(RS)and global positioning system(GPS)technologies,the desertification information range from 1989 to 2014 in the study area is *** the method of the decision tree,the desertification in the research area is been divided into four grades including mild desertification,moderate desertification,severe desertification and serious *** change characteristics of desertification in the study area were analyzed in detail,which showed that the desertification in the study area experienced a process of first development and then a *** rapid development of desertification appears in the 1990s,where about 1101.22 kilometers of desertification area was increased in this *** the twenty-first Century,the desertification is gradually significant recovered and local area exist intensified *** are tendencies of interactive transform in different types of *** tendencies of different degrees of desertification land are rising,and there’re some differences in rising rates,where the expansion rate of moderate desertification is the biggest,increasing by 7.27 kilometers per year.

关键词： Desertification classification desertification expansion rate grass land change the Qinghai Lake

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Solar Energy Resources in Tibet

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Energy Engineering 2024年第1期121卷 43-57页

作者： yanbo shen Yang Gao Yueming Hu Xin Yao Wenzheng Yu Yubing Zhang Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center forWind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China School of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China

The Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in the *** the process of achieving carbon neutrality in China,the development and utilization of solar energy resources in the region will play an important *** this study,the gridded solar resource data with 1km resolution in Tibet were obtained by spatial correction and downscaling of SMARTS *** this basis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the region in the past 30 years(1991–2020)are finely evaluated,and the annual global horizontal radiation resource is *** results show that:1)The average annual global horizontal radiation amount in Tibet is 1816 kWh/m^(2).More than 60%of the area belongs to the“Most abundant”(GHI≥1750 kWh/m^(2))area of China’s solar energy resources category A,and nearly 40%belongs to the“Quite abundant”(1400≤GHI<1750)area of China’s solar energy resource category B.2)In space,the solar energy resources in Tibet increased gradually from north to south and from east to ***,Central and Eastern Shigatse,Shannan,and Southwestern Ali are the most abundant cities,with a maximum annual radiation level of 2189 kWh/m2.3)In terms of time,the total horizontal radiation in Tibet was the highest in May and the lowest in December.74%of the total area belongs to the“Very stable”(R_(w)≥0.47)area of solar resource stability category A,and 26%belongs to the“stable”(0.36≤R_(w)<0.47)area of solar resource stability category *** energy resources in the region show the characteristics of both strong and *** solar energy resources in the region have shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past 30 years,with an average decline of about 12.86(kWh/m2)per decade.4)In terms of solar radiation resources reaching the earth’s surface,the theoretical total amount of annual horizontal radiation in Tibet is about 240.07 billion tons of standard coal or 222.91 billion kilowatts on average.

关键词： Tibet solar resource spatiotemporal distribution

Evolution of Desertification Types on the North Shore of Qinghai Lake

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第5期71卷 3635-3646页

作者： Wenzheng Yu Jintao Cui Yang Gao Mingxuan Zhu Li Shao yanbo shen Xiaozhao Zhang Chen Guo Hanxiaoya Zhang School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing210098China School of Environmental Science&Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China Public Meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China China Huaneng Group Co. Ltd.Beijing100036China China Huaneng Group Cleaning Energy Technology Academy Co. Ltd.100081China Faculty of Science The University of Auckland1010New Zealand

Land desertification is a widely concerned ecological environment *** the evolution trend of desertification types is of great significance to prevent and control land *** this study,we applied the decision tree classification method,to study the land area and temporal and spatial change law of different types of desertification in the North Bank of Qinghai Lake area from 1987 to 2014,based on the current land use situation and TM remote sensing image data of Haiyan County,Qinghai Province,The results show that the area of mild desertification land and moderate desertification land in the study area has decreased,while the area of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land has increased significantly in the past 30 *** area of desertification land decreased by 4.02 km2,of which the area of mild and moderate desertification land decreased by 39.73 km2 and 36.8 km2 respectively,and the area of severe and extreme desertification land increased by 32.78 km2 and 39.73 km2 *** for the mutual transformation relationship,the transformation from severe desertification land to extreme desertification land is the main,and the junction of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land is the sensitive area of *** the north shore of Qinghai Lake,the sandy land tends to expand *** research provides reference basis for local land desertification monitoring,and has a great guidance for local effective land desertification and soil and water conservation.

关键词： Qinghai Lake desertification evolution mechanism remote sensing

Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1417-1437页

作者： Mengmeng SONG Dazhi YANG Sebastian LERCH Xiang'ao XIA Gokhan Mert YAGLI Jamie M.BRIGHT yanbo shen Bai LIU Xingli LIU Martin Janos MAYER School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin150001China Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 3569118HeidelbergGermany Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology(KIT)Bluecherstr.1776185KarlsruheGermany Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore(SERIS) National University of Singapore(NUS)Singapore117574Singapore UK Power Networks LondonSE61NPUK China Meteorological Administration Beijing100081China Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Harbin150001China Department of Energy Engineering Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringBudapest University of Technology and EconomicsMűegyetem rkp.3H-1111BudapestHungary

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,*** such,forecast calibration tools have become *** those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive ***,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated *** this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without *** overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive *** empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing *** and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all ***,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

关键词： ensemble weather forecasting forecast calibration non-crossing quantile regression neural network CORP reliability diagram post-processing

把图书出版单位社会效益评价考核做实做细的探索与实践

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出版发行研究 2020年第4期 32-38页

作者：沈艳波电子工业出版社有限公司

2018年12月31日,中共中央宣传部印发《图书出版单位社会效益评价考核试行办法》,首次从国家层面建立一套可量化、可操作的图书出版单位社会效益评价考核指标体系,这对于指导我国图书出版单位高质量发展具有重要意义。如何深入贯彻与落... 详细信息

2018年12月31日,中共中央宣传部印发《图书出版单位社会效益评价考核试行办法》,首次从国家层面建立一套可量化、可操作的图书出版单位社会效益评价考核指标体系,这对于指导我国图书出版单位高质量发展具有重要意义。如何深入贯彻与落实中央的统一部署,需要各图书出版单位进行不断的探索。本文通过笔者所在图书出版单位自社会效益评价考核试点以来四年的探索与实践,详细论述了如何才能更好地把这项工作做实做细。

关键词：图书出版单位社会效益评价考核实施细则

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永磁球形电动机永磁体涡流损耗分析

电工技术学报 2015年第12期30卷 267-275页

作者：李洪凤沈彦波天津大学电气与自动化工程学院天津300072

永磁球形电动机的磁极呈球面锥体结构,各定子线圈相互独立分布于定子球壳内表面,针对这些特性,提出了一种计算永磁球形电动机永磁体涡流损耗的三维解析模型。该模型将双重傅里叶级数法与矢量磁位解析法相结合,首先利用双重傅里叶级数法... 详细信息

永磁球形电动机的磁极呈球面锥体结构,各定子线圈相互独立分布于定子球壳内表面,针对这些特性,提出了一种计算永磁球形电动机永磁体涡流损耗的三维解析模型。该模型将双重傅里叶级数法与矢量磁位解析法相结合,首先利用双重傅里叶级数法求得定子内径处电流密度分布,继而将其作为边界条件,借助三维拉普拉斯方程,获得了矢量磁位的特解,最后推导得到了永磁球形电动机永磁体涡流损耗的解析表达式。该模型充分考虑到了时间谐波与空间谐波对涡流损耗的影响,并分析了不同的电机结构参数对永磁体涡流损耗的影响。将解析法与有限元法所得结果进行了比较,结果一致,证明了该解析模型的有效性。

关键词：永磁球形电动机双重傅里叶级数法矢量磁位法永磁体涡流损耗解析模型

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面向光热发电的太阳能短期预报技术

电力系统自动化 2016年第19期40卷 158-167页

作者：张悦申彦波石广玉中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京市100029 中国科学院大学北京市100049 中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京市100081

随着全球太阳能行业的迅猛发展,越来越多的太阳能以光热发电的形式被电网吸纳,准确地预报未来几天的法向直接辐射已成为光热项目并网和现场运行维护的基础。文中介绍了法向直接辐射的定义、国内电力工业标准、法向直接辐射短期预报方法... 详细信息

随着全球太阳能行业的迅猛发展,越来越多的太阳能以光热发电的形式被电网吸纳,准确地预报未来几天的法向直接辐射已成为光热项目并网和现场运行维护的基础。文中介绍了法向直接辐射的定义、国内电力工业标准、法向直接辐射短期预报方法、影响短期预报精度的要素和提高短期预报精度的方法,回顾了国内最新的研究进展,提出了当前研究中存在的问题,并对未来的研究趋势做了展望,以期对"十三五"期间太阳能热发电行业的发展提供参考。

关键词：太阳能预报光热发电太阳能热发电法向直接辐射直接辐射数值天气预报

基于SMARTS模式的紫外辐射多参数时空变化及影响因子模拟

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太阳能学报 2022年第4期43卷 175-183页

作者：申彦波王炳忠中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京100081 中国气象科学研究院北京100081

为弥补中国紫外辐射实测数据的不足,该文基于SMARTS辐射传输模式计算分析标准大气、无云条件下280~400 nm波段紫外总辐射E_(g)、315~400 nm波段UVA、280~315 nm波段UVB、紫外指数UVI、红斑有效紫外辐射CIE、立面紫外总辐射等多参数时空... 详细信息

为弥补中国紫外辐射实测数据的不足,该文基于SMARTS辐射传输模式计算分析标准大气、无云条件下280~400 nm波段紫外总辐射E_(g)、315~400 nm波段UVA、280~315 nm波段UVB、紫外指数UVI、红斑有效紫外辐射CIE、立面紫外总辐射等多参数时空变化特征及大气浑浊度、臭氧含量、海拔高度、地表反照率等因素对各参数的定量影响。结果表明:1)紫外辐射各参数随纬度升高而降低,各纬度全年各月的紫外辐射与全波段总辐射之比基本约为5%;2)紫外辐射各参数夏季高而冬季低,正午高而早晚低,高纬度的年变率大于低纬度,夏至前后的3个月,中低纬度的紫外辐射参数较接近,均可能对人体健康产生较大影响;3)UVI在夏季全晴天情况下,正午时分有可能接近11,UVA和UVB正午时分分别可达70和2 W/m^(2),低纬度地区朝南立面上的紫外总辐照度在夏至日的峰值可达70 W/m^(2),与水平面上的值相当;4)能见度从2 km升高至50 km时,紫外辐照度增加一倍以上,随着能见度升高,紫外辐照度的增加幅度减缓;臭氧总量从200 DU翻倍增加至400 DU时,UVI指数降低一半以上,降低幅度随臭氧总量增加呈减缓趋势;海拔高度从0 km升高至5 km时,紫外辐照度增加约1/4,增加幅度随海拔高度的升高保持相对均匀;地表反照率从0.2倍增至0.4时,朝南立面紫外辐射增加1/5,朝南立面上的紫外总辐射中来源于地面反射的部分在夏季占比较大,而冬季占比较小。尽管上述只是无云条件下的理论模拟结果,但其所反映出的紫外辐射和影响因素基本特征仍可供气象学和医学领域参考。

关键词：紫外辐射多参数影响因子数值模拟 SMARTS模式

北京大兴国际机场航站区下沉区域雨水系统及降雨重现期的确定

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给水排水 2019年第10期45卷 94-97页

作者：申延波高川中国民航机场建设集团有限公司规划设计总院

近年来我国极端恶劣天气频发,多地曾遭到暴雨袭击。面对长时间、高强度的降雨,机场中个别下沉式区域的雨水排水是重中之重,尤其一些机场内部重要建筑或设备设施用房位于低洼地势区域内,其雨水系统更是尤为关键。北京大兴国际机场航站区... 详细信息

近年来我国极端恶劣天气频发,多地曾遭到暴雨袭击。面对长时间、高强度的降雨,机场中个别下沉式区域的雨水排水是重中之重,尤其一些机场内部重要建筑或设备设施用房位于低洼地势区域内,其雨水系统更是尤为关键。北京大兴国际机场航站区雨水系统设计中,暴雨重现期的确定对于机场下沉式区域雨水系统的形成和雨水管网的构建非常重要。通过对北京大兴国际机场航站区雨水系统的设计,探讨、研究并确定了其下沉式区域的降雨重现期。

关键词：下沉式区域雨水系统降雨重现期航站区