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PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN china DURING 21ST CENTURY UNDER RCPS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第1期24卷 102-110页

作者： LIANG Yu-lian yan Xiao-dong HUANG Li LU hong JIN Shao-fei Nanning Meteorological Service Nanning 530028 China College of Geographical Science and Planning Guangxi teachers Education UniversityNanning 530001 China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE) Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 China Guangxi Climate Center Nanning 530022 China department of geography Ocean CollegeMinjiang UniversityFuzhou 350108 China

Based on integrated simulations of 26 global climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP), this study predicts changes in temperature and precipitation across china in the 21 st century under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs), and analyzes uncertainties of the predictions using Taylor diagrams. Results show that increases of average annual temperature in china using three RCPs(RCP2.6, RCP4.5,RCP8.5) are 1.87 ℃, 2.88 ℃ and 5.51 ℃, respectively. Increases in average annual precipitation are 0.124, 0.214, and 0.323 mm/day, respectively. The increased temperature and precipitation in the 21 st century are mainly contributed by the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast china. Uncertainty analysis shows that most CMIP5 models could predict temperature well, but had a relatively large deviation in predicting precipitation in china in the 21 st century. Deviation analysis shows that more than 80% of the area of china had stronger signals than noise for temperature prediction;however, the area proportion that had meaningful signals for precipitation prediction was less than 20%. Thus, the multi-model ensemble was more reliable in predicting temperature than precipitation because of large uncertainties of precipitation.

关键词： CMIP5 RCPs climate change model ensemble prediction uncertainty Taylor diagram

Truth-value transmittal fuzzy reasoning inter-polator

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Science in china(Series F) 2005年第6期48卷 737-746页

作者： yan Jianping LEUNG Yee department of Computer Science and Technology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China department of geography Hong Kong Chinese University Hong Kong

In this paper, we firstly associate fuzzy reasoning algorithm with the interpolation algorithm and discuss the limitation of defuzzification methods used commonly in the fuzzy reasoning algorithm. Secondly, we give a new fuzzy reasoning algorithm in case of single input, called the truth-value transmittal method, and discuss its properties. Finally, we analyze the rationality to adopy the truth-value transmittal method as the defuzzification method of full implication triple I method, and show that although CRI and triple I fuzzy reasoning method are different from fuzzy output set, they are uniform finally under the truth-value transmittal defuzzification method.

关键词： fuzzy reasoning interpolation triple I method truth-value transmittal method.

Analgesic and anti-inflammatory activities and mechanisms of 70% ethanol extract of Zygophyllum macropodum in animals

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Chinese Herbal Medicines 2018年第1期10卷 59-65页

作者： xiao-rong yang xiang-feng zhang xue-mei zhang hong-yan gao school of biology and geography science yili normal universityyining 835000china university and college key lab of natural product chemistry and application in xinjiang resources and ecology instituteyili normal universityyining 835000china school of chemistry and environment science yili normal universityyining 835000china

Objective： To screen the preliminary phytochemical components, to investigate the acute oral toxicity, the analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects, and to analyze inflammatory factors on mice or rats of 70% ethanol extract of Zygopgyllurn macropodum aerial parts （ZME）. Methods： Preliminary phytochemical screening was carried out by color reaction. Acute oral toxicity was investigated by body weight, relative organ weight and other toxic signs. Acetic acid induced writhing and hot plate test were used to determine analgesic effect. Acetic acid induced vascular permeability and carrageenan induced paw edema were used to confirm anti-inflammation. Protein in pleural effu- sion, prostaglandin E2 （PGE2） and tumor necrosis factor alpha （TNF-a） in serum of pleuritic rats induced by carrageenan were analyzed to explore the action mechanisms. The test groups received ZME with 100, 300, 600 mg/kg, the positive control with aspirin （ASP） 200 mg/kg for mice, and ZME with 70, 210, 420 mg/kg and ASP 150 mg/kg for rats orally. The control （C） or negative control （NC） groups received 2% Tween 80 of 10 mL/kg orally. Results： ZME contain flavonoids, saponins, phenols and tannins, steroids, terpenoids, fats and oils, glycosides, carbohydrates, and reducing sugar, but no alkaloids. The lethal dose 50% （LD50） of ZME was greater than 2000 mg/kg and no toxic or deleterious effects and death during 14 d. Oral administration 300 and 600 mgJkg of ZME produced analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects significantly （P 〈 0.05 or P 〈 0.001） vs NC. It can reduce the writhing number, prolong the heat resisting time, suppress the permeability of the capillary wall increasing, mitigate the paw edema, reduce the content of protein in pleural effusion, and reduce PGE2 and TNF-α in blood. Conclusions： ZME possessed analgesic and anti-inflammatory activities which related to inhibit the production of protein, PGE2 and TNF-α. The LD50 of ZME treated orally to mice was greater than 2000 mg/kg.

关键词： effects protein Prostaglandin E2 tumor necrosis factor alpha Zygophyllum macropodum

闽江河口区文武砂水库水体溶存CH_(4)浓度时空变化特征

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环境科学学报 2022年第5期42卷 304-313页

作者：洪妍张逸飞杨平仝川 yanG hong 唐晨福建师范大学地理科学学院福州350007 湿润亚热带生态-地理过程教育部重点实验室福州350007 福建师范大学亚热带湿地研究中心福州350007 department of geography and Environmental Science University of ReadingReadingRG66ABUK

甲烷(CH_(4))是一种重要的温室气体,在全球气候变化中扮演着重要角色.水库作为大气库中CH_(4)的重要来源而备受关注.为探究亚热带河口区水库溶存CH_(4)浓度时空变化特征及其影响因素,于2018年11月(秋季)、2019年3月(春季)和6月(夏季)分... 详细信息

甲烷(CH_(4))是一种重要的温室气体,在全球气候变化中扮演着重要角色.水库作为大气库中CH_(4)的重要来源而备受关注.为探究亚热带河口区水库溶存CH_(4)浓度时空变化特征及其影响因素,于2018年11月(秋季)、2019年3月(春季)和6月(夏季)分别对文武砂水库表层水进行高精度多空间点位采样分析.结果表明,文武砂水库表层水体CH;浓度在研究期间的变化范围为0.03~27.35μmol·L^(-1),呈现春、夏季显著高于秋季的时间变化特征(p<0.01);在空间变化上,外源输入强度大的库区水体溶存CH_(4)浓度显著较高,且呈现出由库区沿海区向中心区递减的趋势.相关分析结果显示,水库表层水体CH_(4)浓度与水温、DOC浓度呈显著正相关关系(p<0.05或p<0.01),与水体盐度和溶解氧呈显著负相关关系(p<0.01).本研究结果证实亚热带水库是一个重要的CH_(4)排放源,库区周边的废水排入等因素影响了CH_(4)的排放.

关键词：溶存CH_(4) 时空变化外源输入文武砂水库亚热带河口

Research on Environmental Impact Assessment Methods of Farmland Improvement along Coastal Areas of Jiangsu Province

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2012年第10期3卷 36-39,42页

作者： LIU Liu CHEN yan ZHOU Kou-hong ZHANG Xing HUANG Dong-qin department of geography Science Nanjing Normal University Taizhou Institute of Environmental Science

[ Objective] The study aimed to assess the impact of farmland improvement on ecological environment along coastal areas of Jiangsu Province. [ Method] Taking the coastal farmland improvement of Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province as an example, an indicator system of environ- mental impact assessment （EIA） for coastal farmland improvement was established based on data collection, field survey and monitoring results, expert consultation, literature study and other methods, including four subsystems （biological resource, soil, vegetation and water environment） and 12 indicators. [ Result] The weights of soil, biological resource, vegetation and water environment were 0.614, 0.219, 0.118 and 0.049, and the top weight of soil showed that farmland improvement had a great influence on soil. Among the 12 indicators, the most important indicators with higher weights were reclamation rate of the land （weight 0.389）, population density （weight 0.164） and the content of soil organic matter （weight 0.088）. Therefore, in EIA of such kind of projects in the future, we should give prominence to the identification, evaluation and monitoring of the main characteristic factor above. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the sustainable utilization of resources and estab- lishment of environmental management policies along costal areas of Jiangsu Province.

关键词： Jiangsu coast Farmland improvement Ecological impact Indicator system Sheyang County china

ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

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Chinese Geographical Science 2006年第2期16卷 116-121页

作者： GUO Zhong-yang DAI Xiao-yan WU Jian-ping LIN Hui Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 P. R. China department of geography and Resource Management ＆ Joint Laboratory for Geolnformation Science the Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong P. R. China

In this paper, Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) infrared black-body temperature (Tbb) data from June to August 1998 are used to automatically track the activity of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over the Tibetan Plateau in china. Consequently, the features of MCS, such as area, intensity, life cycle, activity region and shape, are obtained. High Resolution Limited Area Analysis and Forecasting System (HLAFS) values provided by china National Meteorological Center are used to study the relationships between the MCS trajectories and their environmental physical field values, based on the distribution and trajectories of MCSs over the Tibetan Plateau. Favorable environmental physical field charts of influencing MCS movement out of the Tibetan Plateau in different UTC (Universal Time Coordinate) are developed by using spatial data mining techniques at levels of 400hPa and 500hPa, respectively.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Mesoscale Convective Systems black-body temperature automatically tracking

MAGE ANALYSIS OF GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE FOR MONITORING MOVEMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU

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Chinese Geographical Science 2005年第3期15卷 231-237页

作者： DAI Xiao-yan WU Jian-ping LIN Hui Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Geographic lnJbrmation Science East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200062 P. R. China department of geography and Resource Management ＆ Joint Laboratory for Geolnformation Science the Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong P. R. China

Disaster weather forecasting is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, the trajectories of Mesoscale Convective Systems （MCSs） were automatically tracked over the Chinese Tibetan Plateau using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite （GMS） brightness temperature （Tbb） from June to August 1998, and the MCSs are classified according to their movement direction. Based on these, spatial data mining methods are used to study the relationships between MCSs trajectories and their environmental physical field values. Results indicate that at 400hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs moving across the 105°E boundary are less influenced by water vapor flux divergence, vertical wind velocity, reIative humidity and K index. In addition, if the gravity central longitude locations of MCSs are between 104°E and 105°E, then geopotential height and wind divergence are two main factors in movement causation. On the other hand, at 500hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs in a north-east direction are mainly influenced by K index and water vapor flux divergence when their central locations are less than 104°E. However, the MCSs moving in an east and south-east direction are influenced by a few correlation factors at this level.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Mesoscale Convective Systems automatically tracking spatial data mining

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则岔石林地质公园喀斯特地貌类型及形成机制

干旱区地理 2018年第5期41卷 1027-1034页

作者：徐家红鄢志武柳晓丹忻州师范学院旅游管理系山西忻州034000 中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院湖北武汉430000 武警黄金第七支队山东烟台264000

则岔石林地质公园位于甘肃省碌曲县,该处地貌完整地保存了高寒喀斯特的特征,具有典型性与稀有性。为了揭示其自然科学价值,促进自然资源开发与景观保护,基于前人工作基础,通过野外地质调查,以碌曲县区域地学为背景,介绍了则岔石林地质... 详细信息

则岔石林地质公园位于甘肃省碌曲县,该处地貌完整地保存了高寒喀斯特的特征,具有典型性与稀有性。为了揭示其自然科学价值,促进自然资源开发与景观保护,基于前人工作基础,通过野外地质调查,以碌曲县区域地学为背景,介绍了则岔石林地质公园的喀斯特地貌类型,即以高原石林为主,一线天为亮点,小型溶洞为辅。继而从地质构造、岩性、水文气候、生物因素四方面分析了园内喀斯特地貌的形成机制。对完善我国高海拔地区岩溶系列地质遗迹的科学研究具有一定意义。同时,高寒喀斯特的生态化对南方喀斯特沙漠化的治理具有良好的示范作用。

关键词：喀斯特地貌形成机制石林青藏高原东部碌曲

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中国行为地理学的理论与方法研究前沿

地理研究 2024年第9期43卷 2235-2258页

作者：周素红柴彦威关美宝卢佩莹王德王冬根曹小曙孟斌高晓路张艳王丰龙朱玮中山大学地理科学与规划学院/广东省公共安全与灾害工程技术研究中心广州510006 北京大学城市与环境学院北京100871 香港中文大学地理与资源管理系/太空与地球信息科学研究所中国香港999077 香港大学地理系中国香港999077 香港大学深圳研究院深圳518000 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院上海200092 香港浸会大学地理系中国香港999077 广州大学建筑与城市规划学院广州510006 北京联合大学应用文理学院北京100191 北京建筑大学建筑与城市规划学院北京100044 北京联合大学北京学研究所北京100191 华南师范大学地理科学学院/行政区划与空间治理研究中心广州510631

行为地理学是一门探究人类行为与地理空间相互作用的学科,在数字化转向等新背景下,面临着一系列理论与方法的新机遇与新挑战,产生了诸多新的现象、问题、技术、方法及应用场景。在梳理行为地理学国际前沿动态与中国行为地理学研究进展... 详细信息

行为地理学是一门探究人类行为与地理空间相互作用的学科,在数字化转向等新背景下,面临着一系列理论与方法的新机遇与新挑战,产生了诸多新的现象、问题、技术、方法及应用场景。在梳理行为地理学国际前沿动态与中国行为地理学研究进展的基础上,本文聚焦于大数据行为研究范式、AI创新虚实行为系统、企划活动系统与地方秩序嵌套、老年人群特殊行为、情感行为地理学等前沿方向,提出了中国行为地理学的范式转向、数字转向、人文转向、情感转向等新发展方向及其关键科学问题。中国行为地理学需要积极推动理论与方法的创新发展,不断完善中国行为地理学派,加强行为地理学的教学实践与应用创新。

关键词：行为地理学研究范式数字化转向虚实活动地方秩序嵌套