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Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第1期38卷 5-12页

作者： Yiding Zhao Xunqiang Yin yajuan song Fangli Qiao College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural Resources

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this *** Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea *** average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.

关键词： seasonal prediction North Pacific sea surface temperature precipitation FIO-ESM climate model

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1539-1550页

作者： song yajuan WANG Lei LEI Xiaoyan WANG Xidong College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Information Technology State Oceanic Administration

Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP） is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index （GPI）. The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets （ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis- 1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2）. Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multi- model ensemble （MME） mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway （RCP） 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

关键词： tropical cyclone genesis potential index CMIP5 western North Pacific global warming.

Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya song yajuan song Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate ***,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the *** results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming *** considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed *** is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal *** contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural *** work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models Global warming Global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

FIO-ESM v2.0 Outputs for the CMIP6 Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project Experiments

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1045-1056页

作者： yajuan song Xinfang LI Ying BAO Zhenya song Meng WEI Qi SHU and Xiaodan YANG First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266000China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China

Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0),following the GMMIP *** of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation(1979–2014)in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric *** tier-2,the internal variability is captured by the coupled model,with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North *** of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North *** tier-3,five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed *** particular,the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian *** and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.

关键词： CMIP6 GMMIP FIO-ESM v2.0 global monsoon

Causes for different spatial distributions of minimum Arctic sea-ice extent in 2007 and 2012

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第9期34卷 94-101页

作者： CUI Hongyan QIAO Fangli SHU Qi song yajuan JIANG Chunfei College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic Administration

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents （SIEs） were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and 2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different. Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference. By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity （SH） positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature （SAT） and sea level pressure （SLP） accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature （SST）, as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is -0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.

关键词： Arctic sea ice extent atmospheric circulation upper-ocean feedback

Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2021年第10期40卷 65-75页

作者： Qi Shu Fangli Qiao Jiping Liu Zhenya song Zhiqiang Chen Jiechen Zhao Xunqiang Yin yajuan song First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at AlbanyState University of New YorkAlbanyNY 12222USA College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China

To improve the Arctic sea ice forecast skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM)climate forecast system,satellite-derived sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness from the Pan-Arctic IceOcean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS)are assimilated into this system,using the method of localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter(LESTKF).Five-year(2014–2018)Arctic sea ice assimilation experiments and a 2-month near-real-time forecast in August 2018 were conducted to study the roles of ice data *** experiment results show that ice concentration assimilation can help to get better modeled ice concentration and ice *** the biases of ice concentration,ice cover,ice volume,and ice thickness can be reduced dramatically through ice concentration and thickness *** near-real-time forecast results indicate that ice data assimilation can improve the forecast skill significantly in the FIO-ESM climate forecast *** forecasted Arctic integrated ice edge error is reduced by around 1/3 by sea ice data *** with the six near-real-time Arctic sea ice forecast results from the subseasonal-toseasonal(S2 S)Prediction Project,FIO-ESM climate forecast system with LESTKF ice data assimilation has relatively high Arctic sea ice forecast skill in 2018 summer sea ice *** sea ice thickness in the PIOMAS is updated in time,it is a good choice for data assimilation to improve sea ice prediction skills in the near-realtime Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction.

关键词： FIO-ESM sea ice data assimilation sea ice forecast

FIO-ESM v2.0 CORE2-forced experiment for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2022年第10期41卷 22-31页

作者： Qi Shu Zhenya song Ying Bao Xiaodan Yang yajuan song Xinfang Li Meng Wei Fangli Qiao First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China

We introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Ocean Model Intercomparison Project CORE2-forced(OMIP-1)experiment by using the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0(FIO-ESM v2.0),and comprehensively evaluated the simulation *** other OMIP models,FIO-ESM v2.0 includes a coupled ocean surface wave component model that takes into account non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing in the ocean and effect of surface wave Stokes drift on air-sea momentum and heat fluxes in the climate system.A sub-layer sea surface temperature(SST)diurnal cycle parameterization was also employed to take into account effect of SST diurnal cycle on air-sea heat fluxes to improve simulations of air-sea *** show that mean values and long-term trends of significant wave height were adequately reproduced in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulations,and there is a reasonable fit between the SST diurnal cycle obtained from in situ observations and that parameterized by FIO-ESM *** of model drift,temperature,salinity,mixed layer depth,and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation show that the model performs well in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 ***,the summer sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic is underestimated.

关键词： FIO-ESM OMIP CMIP6 OGCM

Predicting the spread of nuclear radiation from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第18期56卷 1890-1896页

作者： QIAO FangLi WANG GuanSuo ZHAO Wei ZHAO JieChen DAI DeJun song yajuan song ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

Japan suffered a M9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami on March 11, 2011, which seriously damaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused a nuclear crisis. The spread of nuclear radiation from the power plant through the atmosphere and ocean was predicted with a short-term climate forecasting model and an ocean circulation model under some idealized assumptions. If nuclear matter were leaked in the near-ground layer of 992 hPa, the climate model results show that the nuclear radiation would cover North America 10 days after the initial leakage, with the concentration at the forefront dramatically reduced to 10 millionths of the initial model concentration at the source. The radiation would span Europe in 15 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 30 days. If the initial leakage was assumed to occur in the layer 5000-m above the ground, the radiation would cover Europe in 10 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 15 days. Moreover, under the assumption that the nuclear matter leaked in the 10000-m layer, the radiation would affect much of China after 10 days. The ocean circulation model indicates that the nuclear material would be slowly transported northeast of Fukushima and reach 150°E in 50 days, and the nuclear debris in the ocean would be confined to a narrow band. Compared with the spread in the ocean, the area affected by leaked nuclear radiation in the atmosphere would be very large. Atmospheric monitors in North America and Europe will be helpful for estimating the effect in China of any leaked nuclear material.

关键词：扩散预测核辐射核电厂短期气候预测模型损坏大气监测环流模型近地面层

S100 calcium-binding protein A9 promotes skin regeneration through toll-like receptor 4 during tissue expansion

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Burns & Trauma 2023年第1期11卷 611-626页

作者： Yu Zhang yajuan song Jing Du Wei Liu Chen Dong Zhaosong Huang Zhe Zhang Liu Yang Tong Wang Shaoheng Xiong Liwei Dong Yaotao Guo Juanli Dang Qiang He Zhou Yu Xianjie Ma Department of Plastic Surgery Xijing HospitalFourth Military Medical UniversityNo.127 ChangleWest RoadXi’anShaanxi Province 710032China

Background:In plastic surgery,tissue expansion is widely used for repairing skin ***,low expansion efficiency and skin rupture caused by thin,expanded skin remain significant challenges in promoting skin regeneration during expansion.S100 calcium-binding protein A9(S100A9)is essential in promoting wound healing;however,its effects on skin regeneration during tissue expansion remain *** aim of the present study was to explore the role of S100A9 in skin regeneration,particularly collagen production to investigate its importance in skin regeneration during tissue ***:The expression and distribution of S100A9 and its receptors-toll-like receptor 4(TLR-4)and receptor for advanced glycation end products were studied in expanded *** character-istics were investigated in skin samples of rats and ***,the expression of S100A9 was investigated in stretched keratinocytes in *** effects of S100A9 on the proliferation and migration of skin fibroblasts were also ***-242 was used to inhibit the binding of S100A9 to TLR-4;the levels of collagen I(COL I),transforming growth factor beta(TGF-β),TLR-4 and phospho-extracellular signal-related kinase 1/2(p-ERK1/2)in fibroblasts were ***,fibroblasts were co-cultured with stretched S100A9-knockout keratinocytes by siRNA transfection and the levels of COL I,TGF-β,TLR-4 and p-ERK1/2 in fibroblasts were ***,the area of expanded skin,thickness of the dermis,and synthesis of COL I,TGF-β,TLR-4 and p-ERK1/2 were analysed to determine the effects of S100A9 on expanded ***:Increased expression of S100A9 and TLR-4 was associated with decreased extracellular matrix(ECM)in the expanded ***,S100A9 facilitated the proliferation and migration of human skin fibroblasts as well as the expression of COL I and TGF-βin fibroblasts via the TLR-4/ERK1/2 *** found that mechanical stretch-induced S100A9 expression and secret

关键词： S100 calcium-binding protein A9 Skin Soft tissue expansion Mechanical stretch Regeneration Highlights