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The Projected Changes of Precipitations over Niger Under the Scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2022年第6期11卷 248-266页

作者： Mounkaila Saley Moussa yacoubou mahamadou Abdou Saley Inoussa Department of Physics Faculty of Sciences and TechniquesAbdou Moumouni UniversityBP:10662NiameyNiger Department of Physics Faculty of Sciences of EducationAndre Salifou UniversityBP:656ZinderNiger

The socio-economic activities of Niger rely on agriculture which is strongly affected by changes in precipitation during the rainy *** ultimate aim of this study is to assess the projected changes of precipitation over Niger under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP)scenarios 4.5(RCP 4.5)and RCP 8.5 using multi-RCM(Multi-Regional Climate)model *** observation data are from CHIRPS(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station)and the RCMs are from the SMHI(Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)model(RCA4)driven by ten(10)different GCMs(General Circulation Model)(e.g.,CCCma,CSIRO,ICHEC,IPSL,MIROC,MOHC-HadGEM2,MPI,NCC-NorESM1,NOOA,and NRCM)within the framework of CORDEX(Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment)Africa *** reference and projections periods in this study are respectively 1981-2005 for the present and 2011-2100 for the near,medium and far future divided into three periods,2011 to 2040(P1),2041 to 2070(P2)and 2071 to 2100(P3).The methodology used,consists of assessing the performance of the multi-RCMs of RCA4 model(with respect of CHIRPS)in simulating the precipitations changes by computing the spatial distribution and anomalies of precipitations;and their indices of RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),the bias,SPI(Standardized Precipitation Anomaly Index),correlation coefficient,statistical t-test,spatial evolution rate and the rate of temporal *** the validation of the multi-RCMs RCA4 models,the ensemble mean of the models is used to assess the projected changes of precipitations over Niger in the *** results show that most of the multi-RCMs capture the four climatic zone except for *** the ensemble mean of the models simulates(as compared to CHIRPS)more accurately the monthly,annual precipitations anomalies and their indices than individual’s models in the reference period,some RCMs(e.g.,CSIRO-IPSL and CCCma-HadGEM)poorly reproduce *** projected changes of precip

关键词： Climate projection precipitation changes anomaly scenarios RCP Niger Sahel

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