检索结果-南通市图书馆

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2006年第2期25卷 33-48页

作者： DUAN Yihong yu runling LI Yongping Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China

POM (Princeton ocean model) tentatively taken as the ocean part of an ocean-land atmosphere coupled modcl is verified for the ultimate purpose of studying the landfall process of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific. The POM is tested with monthly mean wind stress in the summer and given lateral boundary conditions. The results indicate that the equilibrium state of the ocean is in accordance with the climate mean, with the error in sea surface temperature (salinity) less than 0.5 ℃ (0.5). The simulated occan currents are reasonable as *** numerical experiments are designed to verify the oceanic response to a stationary or moving TC. It is found that the results agree fairly well with the previous work, including both the drop magnitude and the distribution ofsca temperature. Compared with the simple two-layer ocean model used by some other studies, the response of the ocean to a TC is more logical here. The model is also verified in a real case with a TC passing the neighborhood of a buoy station. It is shown that the established ocean model can basically reproduce the sea surface temperature change as observed.

关键词： tropical cyclone ocean coupled model

Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2007年第1期26卷 23-34页

作者： LI Yongping WANG Xiaofeng yu runling QIN Zenghao Open Laboratory for Typhoon Research Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030

As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of ＂tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）,special report on emission scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it.

关键词： IPCC SRES A2 and B2 general circulation anomaly frequency of tropical cyclone

Analysis of characteristics and evaluation of forecast accuracy for Super Typhoon Doksuri(2023)

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第3期13卷 219-229页

作者： Rong Guo runling yu Mengqi Yang Guomin Chen Chen Chen Peiyan Chen Xin Huang Xiping Zhang Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina

Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged *** this work,we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts,global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 *** results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts,with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes,ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the *** evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method(SSTC)and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track ***,the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO)are optimal for long-term *** is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum *** objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in ***-National Digital Forecast System(CMA-NDFS)provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts,and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme *** analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each *** improves the effective application of model products.

关键词： Typhoon doksuri Forecast errors Typhoon track forecasts Typhoon intensity forecasts TC-Reduced rainfall forecasts

STUDY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION UNDER TYPHOON AND ITS APPLICATION IN STI

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第4期7卷 212-216页

作者： YONGPING LI yuNXIA ZHENG runling yu ZIQIANG DUAN Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA/Wenzhou Typhoon Laboratory of STI

To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research projects from national, Shanghai municipal government and CMA were undertaken by Shanghai Typhoon Institute in recent 10 years. Some field experiments for typhoon were carried out. The observational researches on physical process of air-sea interaction reveal some new facts about the turbulence energy transport in the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer under typhoon. Especially there is more understanding for multi-scale response mechanism of ocean and feedback effect of each other. The simulation and prediction of typhoon intensity in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model are improved due to better expression of drag coefficient on sea surface and the sea spray effect on momentum and heat transport. Furthermore, the operational wave models were established for global and northwest Pacific respectively. In particular, the sea wave and storm surge numerical prediction systems with very high resolution including complex physical processes, such as interaction of wave and current, developed over China coastal sea. Based on the numerical model outputs some useful risk indexes for ship voyage were formed and put into use in Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center, such as wave steepness index, ratio index of swell and synchronism oscillation index et al. The numerical marine products are widely used in daily operational work and professional services recently.

关键词： upper ocean air-sea interaction typhoon intensity coupled model wave and storm surge

OVERVIEW OF SEVERE TYPHOON FITOW AND ITS OPERATIONAL FORECASTS

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第1期3卷 22-34页

作者： ZIFENG yu YANDIE CHEN DAN WU GUOMIN CHEN XUWEI BAO QIUZHEN YANG runling yu LEI ZHANG JIE TANG MING XU ZHIHUA ZENG College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute ShanghaiChina Fujian Meteorological Bureau FuzhouChina

Severe typhoon Fitow(1323)brought persistent and heavy rainfall to Zhejiang and the Shanghai area after it made landfall at Fujian Province of China in October 2013,breaking the rainfall records of several counties and districts in *** this paper,we provide an overview of the characteristics of Fitow’s landfall,including its track,intensity,structural evolution,heavy rainfall,and *** also describe some of the associated disastrous ***,we provide verifications of operational forecasts of its track,intensity and *** the track and intensity is well predicted,the rainfall persistence and enhancement in the second stage in Shanghai and north Zhejiang areas are not predicted out at *** analysis presented in this paper provides forecasters and researchers with some valuable information on Fitow,which could form a useful basis for further studies.

关键词： tropical cyclone rainfall forecast

On the Revival Mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023) Remnants after Its Landfall

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第6期 1032-1046页

作者： Chunyi XIANG Lin DONG yu LAN Hui WANG runling yu Xiaoyong ZHUGE Da LIU Qian WANG National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmosphere Sciences China Meteorological Administration

After landfall, tropical cyclone(TC) remnants may maintain or even rejuvenate and incur catastrophic *** leads to the revival of TC remnants over land remains elusive. In this study, the revival mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023) remnants is extensively explored. Doksuri brought severe damage to the Chinese mainland after its landfall. The remnants vortex of Doksuri sustained an inland trajectory for 3 days and underwent a total maintenance of 60 h, with a revival of 18 h. Based on multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, by calculation of moist potential vorticity and analysis of slantwise vorticity development(SVD), this study unveils that while maintaining a significant warm-core structure over the course of maintenance and revival, the Doksuri remnants transported sufficient moisture in the mid–lower troposphere, which intensified the north–south temperature and humidity gradients,causing tilting of the isentropic surfaces remarkably. According to the SVD theory, the tilting gave rise to vorticity development and forced upward air motion on the northern side of the remnant vortex. Moreover, numerical sensitivity experiments based on the WRF model reveal that the topography of Taihang Mountains and the diabatic heating associated with surface and convective latent heat fluxes also played important roles in the revival of the Doksuri remnants. The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms derived by this study will help improve understanding and prediction of the disasters induced by TC remnants.

关键词：

一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报系统的建立与应用

在线全文

同方期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

气象学报 2009年第5期67卷 884-891页

作者：李永平于润玲郑运霞中国气象局上海台风研究所中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室上海200030

依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统。台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件。大... 详细信息

依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统。台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件。大量的数值模拟结果表明,该模式能较好地重现历史台风风暴增水过程,对近2年台风风暴潮个例的预报结果表明,该业务系统对台风风暴增水具有较好的预报能力,文章同时分析了模式存在的一些问题。该业务系统实现了从资料采集、模式运行到预报结果输出的全自动化,显示采用图片和MICAPS两种方式,后者与现有气象业务平台一致。

关键词： POM 台风风场风暴增水数值预报业务系统

基于四种资料的超强台风利奇马(1909)期间海面风变化特征对比分析

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

大气科学 2024年第6期48卷 2374-2388页

作者：夏天竹李肖霞于润玲张雨潇李雁林鹏飞中国气象局气象探测中心北京100081 天津市滨海新区气象局天津300450 中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 北京100029

本文对海洋气象漂流观测仪实测、CMA最佳路径数据集、第5代全球气象再分析产品(ERA5)、交叉检验多平台融合矢量风场(CCMP)四种资料的海面风在超强台风“利奇马”期间的变化特征进行分析。ERA5、CCMP两种分析/再分析风资料与实测风的对... 详细信息

本文对海洋气象漂流观测仪实测、CMA最佳路径数据集、第5代全球气象再分析产品(ERA5)、交叉检验多平台融合矢量风场(CCMP)四种资料的海面风在超强台风“利奇马”期间的变化特征进行分析。ERA5、CCMP两种分析/再分析风资料与实测风的对比分析表明:(1)风速:当风力5级时偏左。(3)ERA5、CCMP风向、风速在“利奇马”近中心海域偏差明显,远离中心海域二者吻合度较高。通过对ERA5、CCMP资料进一步分析发现:CCMP能清楚描述热带气旋风场结构及演变过程,“利奇马”为超强台风时结构参数η=Vr/Vmax分布上有闭合环状结构,表明该区域有环状大风速带;“利奇马”强迫时间T_f分布于移动路径两侧,ERA5(CCMP)最大强迫时间为45 h(54 h)。

关键词：海面风 “利奇马” 漂流观测仪 CMA最佳路径数据集 ERA5资料 CCMP资料

超强台风利奇马(1909)期间海洋中尺度冷涡特征分析

同方期刊数据库博看期刊评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

天津科技 2023年第S1期50卷 99-102,107页

作者：夏天竹卜盛田李肖霞于润玲胡潮天津市滨海新区气象局天津300450 中国气象局气象探测中心北京100081 中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030 天津益港物流技术服务有限公司天津300452

对超强台风“利奇马”期间西北太平洋海表面高度异常(SLA)特征及台风移动路径附近中尺度冷涡特征进行了分析,结果表明:“利奇马”过境前后,西北太平洋SLA以正值为主,闭合SLA负值区C1负异常数值减小、范围扩大,C2变化不明显;“利奇马”以... 详细信息

对超强台风“利奇马”期间西北太平洋海表面高度异常(SLA)特征及台风移动路径附近中尺度冷涡特征进行了分析,结果表明:“利奇马”过境前后,西北太平洋SLA以正值为主,闭合SLA负值区C1负异常数值减小、范围扩大,C2变化不明显;“利奇马”以6.4~10.8 km/h移速横穿中尺度冷涡CE1,并向西北方向移动,移出前后CE1强度、范围加强(SLA极值为-19.6 cm);以13.9~20.4 km/h快速从CE2以东海域移过,过境前后CE2强度、范围变化不明显;CE1、CE2位于“利奇马”强迫区域内,“利奇马”对CE1影响时间长(18~42 h),使得CE1范围增大、强度增强,对CE2影响则不明显。

关键词：中尺度冷涡 “ 利奇马” 海表面高度异常强迫时间特征分析

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

上海市气象局海洋气象数值预报技术研究进展

气象科技进展 2017年第6期7卷 75-81页

作者：李永平郑运霞杨棋于润玲段自强朱智慧中国气象局上海台风研究所温州台风预报技术应用联合实验室上海200030 上海海洋气象预报台上海200030

为满足上海海洋区域中心海洋气象业务的需求,近十多年来中国气象局上海台风研究所和上海海洋气象预报台承担完成了多项国家、上海市和气象部门的海洋气象数值预报技术研究方面的科研课题,在海气相互作用物理过程观测研究方面揭示了台风... 详细信息

为满足上海海洋区域中心海洋气象业务的需求,近十多年来中国气象局上海台风研究所和上海海洋气象预报台承担完成了多项国家、上海市和气象部门的海洋气象数值预报技术研究方面的科研课题,在海气相互作用物理过程观测研究方面揭示了台风和海雾边界层大气湍流能量输送一些新的事实,通过合理地表达海洋飞沫对于动量和热量输送作用和改进海面拖曳系数方案等手段,有效提高了海气耦合模式对于台风强度的模拟和预报能力。研发了全球和西北太平洋风浪数值预报系统,特别是发展了包括波流相互作用等复杂物理过程的近岸高分辨率海浪和风暴潮数值预报系统,还基于观测和数值模式波浪要素研发了浅滩效应指数、波浪陡度指数、涌浪占比指数和谐摇指数等船舶风险指数产品,使海洋气象预报服务更有针对性,并取得了很好的应用效果。

关键词：海气相互作用耦合模式高分辨率风浪风暴潮船舶风险指数