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Impact of Cloud Microphysical Processes on the Simulation of Typhoon Rananim near Shore. Part II： Typhoon Intensity and Track

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第4期25卷 456-466页

作者： CHENG Rui yu rucong XU Youping FU yunfei State Key Laboratory of Numerical Simulation for Atmo3pheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Beijing 100029 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 University of Science and Technology of China Hefei 230026

The impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulated intensity and track of Typhoon Rananim is discussed and analyzed in the second part of this study. The results indicate that when the cooling effect due to evaporation of rain water is excluded, the simulated 36-h maximum surface wind speed of Typhoon Rananim is about 7 m s-1 greater than that from all other experiments; however, the typhoon landfall location has the biggest bias of about 150 km against the control experiment. The simulated strong outer rainbands and the vertical shear of the environmental flow are unfavorable for the deepening and maintenance of the typhoon and result in its intensity loss near the landfall. It is the cloud microphysical processes that strengthen and create the outer spiral rainbands, which then increase the local convergence away from the typhoon center and prevent more moisture and energy transport to the inner core of the typhoon. The developed outer rainbands are supposed to bring dry and cold air mass from the middle troposphere to the planetary boundary layer （PBL）. The other branch of the cold airflow comes from the evaporation of rain water itself in the PBL while the droplets are falling. Thus, the cut-off of the warm and moist air to the inner core and the invasion of cold and dry air to the eyewall region are expected to bring about the intensity reduction of the modeled typhoon. Therefore, the deepening and maintenance of Typhoon Rananim during its landing are better simulated through the reduction of these two kinds of model errors.

关键词： typhoon intensity cloud microphysical processes spiral rainband environmental wind shear

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The Extraordinary Rainfall over the Eastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau in August 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2097-2107页

作者： Xuelin HU Weihua yuAN rucong yu State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

A large amount of accumulated precipitation was recorded over the Eastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau(EPTP)in August *** hourly rain gauge records and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset,we analyzed the unique characteristics of rainfall in August and the accompanying circulation conditions and conducted a comparison with previous *** record-breaking amount of accumulated rainfall was centered on the northern slope of the *** location was in contrast with the historical records of the concentration of rainfall over the middle and southern *** hourly rainfall in August 2020 was both more frequent and more intense than the climatological mean *** amplification effect of the topography was observed,with the precipitation over the EPTP showing a more significant change with terrain height in August 2020.A circulation analysis showed that cold(warm)anomalies existed over the north(south)of approximately 35°N compared with those in the years when the southern EPTP received more *** western Pacific subtropical high was more intense and extended to the west,and the low-level cold air from the north was more *** enhanced low-level southerly winds on the periphery of the subtropical high injected warm,moist air further north than the climatological *** winds became easterly near the northern EPTP and were forced to ascend by the steep terrain.

关键词： intense rainfall summer 2020 Eastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau western Sichuan Basin

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Changes in the Diurnal Cycles of Precipitation over Eastern China in the Past 40 Years

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 461-467页

作者： yuAN Weihua yu rucong LI Jian State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Dali National Climate Obsevvatory Yunnan 671003

This study analyzed the interdecadal changes in the diurnal variability of summer （June-August） precipitation over eastern China during the period 1966 2005 using hourly station rain gauge data. The results revealed that rainfall diurnal variations experienced significant interdecadal changes. Over the area to the south of the Yangtze River, as well as the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, the percentages of morning rainfall （0000 1200 LST） to total rainfall in terms of amount, frequency and intensity, all exhibited increasing interdecadal trends. On the contrary, over North China, decreasing trends were found. As a result, diurnal rainfall peaks also presented pronounced interdecadal variations. Over the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, there were 16 out of 46 stations with afternoon （1200-0000 LST） frequency peaks in the first 20 years of the 40-year period of study, while only eight remained in the latter 20 years. In North China, seven stations experienced the opposite changes, which accounted for about 21% of the total number of stations. The possible causes for the interdecadal changes in diurnal features were discussed. As the rainfall in the active monsoon period presents morning diurnal peaks, with afternoon peaks in the break period, the decrease （increase） of rainfall in the active monsoon period over North China （the area south of the Yangtze River and the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers） may contribute to interdecadal changes in diurnal rainfall variability.

关键词： diurnal cycle interdecadal changes eastern China

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Implementation of a Conservative Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme on a Spherical Icosahedral Hexagonal Geodesic Grid

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第3期34卷 411-427页

作者： Yi ZHANG rucong yu Jian LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

An Eulerian flux-form advection scheme, called the Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme （TSPAS）, was generalized and implemented on a spherical icosahedral hexagonal grid （also referred to as a geodesic grid） to solve the transport equation. The C grid discretization was used for the spatial discretization. To implement TSPAS on an unstructured grid, the original finite-difference scheme was further generalized. The two-step integration utilizes a combination of two separate schemes （a low-order monotone scheme and a high-order scheme that typically cannot ensure monotonicity） to calculate the fluxes at the cell walls （one scheme corresponds to one cell wall）. The choice between these two schemes for each edge depends on a pre-updated scalar value using slightly increased fluxes. After the determination of an appropriate scheme, the final integration at a target cell is achieved by summing the fluxes that are computed by the different schemes. The conservative and shape-preserving properties of the generalized scheme are demonstrated. Numerical experiments are conducted at several horizontal resolutions. TSPAS is compared with the Flux Corrected Transport （FCT） approach to demonstrate the differences between the two methods, and several transport tests are performed to examine the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the two schemes.

关键词： transport equation advection scheme spherical icosahedral hexagonal geodesic grid shape preservation numerical test

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Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

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Science Bulletin 2024年第2期69卷 237-247页

作者： Wei Sun Jian Li rucong yu Nina Li Yi Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100105China

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale *** we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble *** to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation *** the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport *** a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present *** the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the *** summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

关键词： Precipitation extreme Climate change Pseudo-global-warming experiment Variable-resolution modeling Multi-scale system interaction

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Diurnal Variations of Summer Precipitation over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第1期33卷 18-30页

作者： Liangliang LI Jian LI Haoming CHEN rucong yu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological Administration University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Based on the high-density hourly rain-gauge data from 265 stations over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China,climatic mean diurnal variations of summer rainfall over different topographies of this area are investigated. Influences of the gauge elevations on the diurnal variation of rainfall are also revealed. Distinct regional features of diurnal variations in rainfall are observed over the Qilian Mountains. Rainfall over the Qinghai Lake areas shows a single nocturnal peak. A dominant, late-afternoon peak of rainfall occurs over the mountain tops. Over the northeastern and southeastern slopes, a dominant diurnal peak appears in the late afternoon, and an evident second peak is found in the early morning, respectively. The strengths of the early-morning peaks in the rainfall frequency are closely related to the rainfall events with different durations over the two slopes. The early-morning peak is dominant across plains with low elevations. From the mountain tops to the plains, the diurnal peaks of rainfall gradually vary from the dominant late-afternoon peak to the dominant early-morning peak with the enhanced early-morning peak in concurrent with the decreasing gauge elevation over the northeastern and southeastern slopes. Further examination indicates that the rainfall at higher elevations over the northeastern and southeastern slopes occurs more readily in the afternoon,compared to the lower elevations. This phenomenon corresponds to the result that the proportion of the rainfall frequency occurring during the early-morning period decreases with increasing elevations over the two slopes.

关键词： the Qilian Mountains diurnal cycle topographic effects spatial distribution duration

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A New Method to Compare Hourly Rainfall between Station Observations and Satellite Products over Central–Eastern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第5期30卷 737-757页

作者： CHEN Haoming yu rucong SHEN Yan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 National Meteorological Information Center Beijing 100081

This study employs a newly defined regional-rainfall-event （RRE） concept to compare the hourly charac- teristics of warm-season （May September） rainfall among rain gauge observations, China merged hourly pre- cipitation analysis （CMPA-Hourly）, and two commonly used satellite products （TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH） By considering the rainfall characteristics in a given limited area rather than a single point or grid, this method largely eliminates the differences in rainfall characteristics among different observations or measure- ments over central-eastern China. The results show that the spatial distribution and diurnal variation of RRE frequency and intensity are quite consistent among different datasets, and the performance of CMPA- Hourly is better than the satellite products when compared with station observations. A regional rainfall coefficient （RRC）, which can be used to classify local rain and regional rain, is employed to represent the spatial spread of rainfall in the limited region defining the RRE. It is found that rainfall spread in the selected grid box is more uniform during the nocturnal to morning hours over central-eastern China. The RRC tends to reach its diurnal maximum several hours after the RRE intensity peaks, implying an in- termediate transition stage from convective to stratiform rainfall. In the afternoon, the RRC reaches its minimum, implying the dominance of local convections on small spatial scale in those hours, which could cause large differences in rain gauge and satellite observations. Since the RRE method reflects the overall features of rainfall in a limited region rather than at a fixed point or in a single grid, the widely recognized overestimation of afternoon rainfall in satellite products is more reliable in representing sub-daily variation of rainfall a reasonable method to compare satellite products with which also has great potential to be used in evaluating the numerical models. not obvious, and thus the satellite estimates are

关键词： regional rainfall event regional rainfall coefficient diurnal variation spatial spread satellite precipitation

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Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2014年第1期33卷 83-91页

作者： DU Jun LI Jun yu rucong CUI Chunguang National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) National Oceanic and Atmosphereic Administration (NOAA) Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain CMA

Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble *** evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast *** is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather *** the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a *** result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological *** demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of *** the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should *** second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） *** other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT *** method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric st

关键词： NCEP SREF ensemble spread-skill relation targeted observation

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Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第12期53卷 1933-1936页

作者： LI Jian yu rucong WANG JianJie LaSW Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Beijing Meteorological Bureau Beijing 100089 China

Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961―2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events (an event of 1―6 hours in duration), while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is ac-cumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events (an event that lasts longer than 6 hours). In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of long-duration events has decreased.

关键词：北京夏季降水气候

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Performance of CAMS-CSM in Simulating the Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect over Global Stratus Cloud Regions: Baseline Evaluation and Sensitivity Test

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第4期33卷 651-665页

作者： Yihui ZHOU Yi ZHANG Xinyao RONG Jian LI rucong yu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The ability of climate models to correctly reproduce clouds and the radiative effects of clouds is vitally important in climate simulations and *** this study,simulations of the shortwave cloud radiative effect(SWCRE)using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM)are *** relationships between SWCRE and dynamic–thermodynamic regimes are examined to understand whether the model can simulate realistic processes that are responsible for the generation and maintenance of stratus *** eastern China,CAMS-CSM well simulates the SWCRE climatological state and stratus cloud *** model captures the strong dependence of SWCRE on the dynamic *** the marine boundary layer regions,the simulated SWCRE magnitude is weaker than that in the observations due to the lack of low-level stratus clouds in the *** model fails to simulate the close relationship between SWCRE and local stability over these regions.A sensitivity numerical experiment using a specifically designed parameterization scheme for the stratocumulus cloud cover confirms this *** schemes that directly depict the relationship between the stratus cloud amount and stability are beneficial for improving the model performance.

关键词： Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model (CAMS-CSM) shortwave cloudradiative effect (SWCRE) stratus cloud model errors

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