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A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN jinfang yin State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National Meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

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Precipitation Evolution from Plain to Mountains during the July 2023 Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in North China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 635-651页

作者： Mingxin LI Jisong SUN Feng LI Chong WU Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO jinfang yin Xudong LIANG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

North China experienced devastating rainfall from 29 July to 1 August 2023,which caused substantial flooding and *** study analyzed observations from surface rain gauges and S-band dual-polarization radars to reveal the following unique features of the precipitation evolution from the plain to the mountains during this event.(1) The total rainfall was found concentrated along the Taihang Mountains at elevations generally > 200 m,and its spatiotemporal evolution was closely associated with northward-moving low-level jets.(2) Storms propagated northwestward with southeasterly steering winds,producing continuous rainfall along the eastern slopes of the Taihang Mountains owing to mountain blocking,which resulted in the formation of local centers of precipitation ***,most rainfall episodes with an extreme hourly rainfall rate(HRR),corresponding to large horizontal wind shear at low levels,actively occurred in the plain area to the east of the Taihang Mountains.(3) The western portion of the extreme heavy rain belt in the north was mainly caused by long-lasting cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation with HRR 20 mm h~(-1).The contributions of convective precipitation and cumulus–stratus mixed precipitation to the total rainfall of the southern and middle rain belts were broadly equivalent.(4) The local HRR maxima located at the transition zone from the plain to the mountains were induced by moderate storm-scale convective cells with active warm-rain processes and large number of small-sized rain droplets.(5) During the devastating rainfall event,it was observed that the rainfall peaked at around 1800 local time(LT) every day over the upstream plain area(no diurnal cycle of rainfall was observed in relation to the accumulated rainfall centers over mountain areas).This was attributable to convective activities along the storm propagation path,which was a resu

关键词： extreme rainfall from plain to mountains convective precipitation stratiform precipitation hourly rainfall rate low-level jet diurnal variation

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What Caused the Differences between the July 2023 and August 1996 Extreme Rainfall Events in North China under Similar Synoptic Background?

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第5期 861-879页

作者： Xinghua BAO Jisong SUN jinfang yin Xiaoyu GAO Feng LI Xudong LIANG Haodong GU Rudi XIA Mingxin LI Chong WU Jianing FENG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological Administration Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains & Low-Latitude Plateau China Meteorological Administration Shigatse National Climatological Observatory China Meteorological Administration Tianjin Meteorological Service Centre Tianjin Meteorological Bureau

This study examined the rainfall characteristics and related synoptic processes of two extreme rainfall events that affected North China during 29 July–1 August 2023 (“23·7” rainstorm) and 3–5 August 1996 (“96·8” rainstorm), respectively. A stable dual-typhoon circulation pattern was observed in both rainstorm events. The surviving vortex of a landed typhoon, slowly approaching the rainstorm region, was blocked by a high-pressure system as it moved northwestward. Meanwhile, the second typhoon over the western Pacific Ocean facilitated remote northward transport of moisture. The low-level jet between the surviving vortex and the western Pacific subtropical high relayed moist warm air from the area of the South China Sea and western Pacific into the rainstorm region. Although the circulation patterns are similar, the stratification conditions, driving factors, and moisture budget of the two rainstorms differed during the main period of rainfall. The “23·7” rainstorm was categorized as warm-sector rainfall, as a result of the lifting of warm moist air over the eastern foothills of Taihang Mountains. In comparison with the situation of the “96·8” rainstorm, the surviving vortex of the “23·7” rainstorm traveled further northeastward and directly impacted the occurrence and progression of the rainfall, leading to relative northward displacement of the rainfall center, while the stronger net inward moisture flux caused greater regional average rainfall. The “96·8” rainstorm was broadly analogous to precipitation of a cold front, and the rainfall center was observed in the convergence area of warm and cold air masses before the mountains; the surviving vortex did not exert direct impact on the rainfall; and the more unstable stratification led to stronger hourly rainfall. The results derived through comparison of the two rainstorms could serve as valuable scientific reference for operational forecasting of heavy rainfall under similar environmental conditions over North Chi

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Key Issues in Developing Numerical Models for Artificial Weather Modification

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1007-1017页

作者： Huanbin XU jinfang yin State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081

The scientific foundation of artificial weather modification is rneso- and small-scale dynamics and cloud-precipitation microphysics. Artificial weather modification requires the realistic coupling of weather patterns, dynamical pro- cesses, and microphysical processes. Now that numerical models with weather dynamical characteristics have been widely applied to artificial weather modification, several key points that should not be neglected when developing numerical models for artificial weather modification are proposed in this paper, including the dynamical equations, model resolution, cloud-precipitation microphysical processes, numerical computation method, and initial and boundary conditions. Based on several examples, approaches are offered to deal with the problems that exist in these areas.

关键词： artificial weather modification numerical model dynamical processes cloud-precipitation microphy- sical orocesses

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Using the Inverse of Expected Error Variance to Determine Weights of Individual Ensemble Members： Application to Temperature Prediction

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第3期31卷 502-513页

作者： Xiaogong SUN jinfang yin Yan ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

The inverse of expected error variance is utilized to determine weights of individual ensemble members based on the THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） forecast datasets. The weights of all ensemble members are thus calculated for summer 2012, with the NCEP final operational global analysis （FNL） data as the truth. Based on the weights of all ensemble members, the variable weighted ensemble mean （VWEM） of temperature of summer 2013 is derived and compared with that from the simple equally weighted ensemble mean. The results show that VWEM has lower root-mean-square error （RMSE） as well as absolute error, and has improved the temperature prediction accuracy. The improvements are quite notable over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas; specifically, a relative improvement rate of RMSE of more than 24% in 2-m temperature is demonstrated. Moreover, the improvement rates vary slightly with the pre- diction lead-time （24-96 h）. It is suggested that the VWEM approach be employed in operational ensemble predic- tion to provide guidance for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

关键词： ensemble forecast variable weighted ensemble mean simple equally weighted ensemble mean predic-tion accuracy

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An investigation into the three-dimensional cloud structure over East Asia from the CALIPSO-GOCCP Data

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第12期58卷 2236-2248页

作者： yin jinfang WANG DongHai XU HuanBin ZHAI GuoQing State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Department of Earth Science Zhejiang University

The spatial distribution of clouds and their seasonal variations, and the three-dimensional(3D) cloud structures over East Asia have been analyzed with the CALIPSO-GOCCP data during the period from 2007 to 2012. The results show that there is a large cloud fraction greater than 0.7 over southern China, and the largest cloud fraction appears in southwest China. Besides, a large cloud fraction occurs over the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. The total and high cloud fractions show notable variations with seasons, while the middle and low cloud fractions vary a little. As for cloud vertical structure, significant differences of the cloud vertical distributions are observed between over land and ocean. Cloud fractions and the height of the maximum cloud fractions decline gradually with the increasing latitude, except for the vertical-latitude profiles over the Tibetan Plateau regions. The longitude-vertical cross sections show similar patterns from the longitude 70° E to 140° E, except the profiles with large cloud fractions over the Tibetan Plateau. From the horizontal distribution patterns and vertical structures of the clouds over East Asia, it is concluded that the huge terrain of the Tibetan Plateau has significant impacts on the cloud formation over the Tibetan Plateau region and the areas to the east. At last, the clouds from the CALIPSO-GOCCP observations are compared to those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results indicate that the ERA-Interim reanalysis data provide reasonable spatial distribution patterns and the vertical structures in terms of the total cloud fraction over East Asia. However, the total cloud fraction was underestimated about 20% by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data over most parts of East Asia, especially over the neighboring areas east of the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, the ERA-interim reanalysis data overestimate the cloud fractions at each level in the vertical direction.

关键词： CALIPSO cloud fraction cloud three-dimension structure ERA-interim reanalysis data

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Predecessor Rain Events in the Yangtze River Delta Region Associated with South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO)Tropical Cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 1021-1042页

作者： Huiyan XU Xiaofan LI jinfang yin Dengrong ZHANG Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change School of Information Science and TechnologyHangzhou Normal UniversityHangzhou 311121China Key Laboratory of Geoscience Big Data and Deep Resource of Zhejiang Province School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)Beijing 100081China

Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to *** indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.

关键词： tropical cyclone heavy rain westerly trough upper-level jet stream

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Effects of Microphysical Latent Heating on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato(2017)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 368-386页

作者： Dajun ZHAO Yubin YU jinfang yin Hongxiong XU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

A 72-h cloud-resolving numerical simulation of Typhoon Hato(2017)is performed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the Advanced Research WRF(ARW)core(V3.8.1)on a horizontal resolution of2 *** enhance the background tropical cyclone structure and intensity,a vortex dynamic initialization scheme with a terrain-filtering algorithm is *** model reproduces reasonably well the track,structure,and intensity change of Typhoon *** specifically,the change trend of simulated maximum wind speed is consistent with that of best-track analysis,and the simulated maximum wind of 49 ms^-1 is close to that(52 ms^-1)of the best-track analysis,indicating that the model has successfully captured the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Hato(2017).Analyses of the model outputs reveal that the total microphysical latent heating of the inner-core region associated with enhanced vertical upward motion reaches its maximum at 9-km height in the upper troposphere during the RI *** dominant microphysical processes with positive latent heat contributions(i.e.,heating effect)are water vapor condensation into cloud water(67.6%),depositional growth of ice(12.9%),and generation(nucleation)of ice from vapor(7.9%).Those with negative latent heat contributions(cooling effect)are evaporation of rain(47.6%),melting of snow(27.7%),and melting of graupel(9.8%).Sensitivity experiments further show that the intensification speed and peak intensity of this typhoon are highly correlated to the dominant heating effect.A significant increase in graupel over 5-10-km height and snow at 10-14-km height in the inner-core region of Typhoon Hato corresponds well with its RI stage,and the latent heating from nucleation and depositional growth is crucial to the RI of simulated Hato.

关键词： microphysical latent heating rapid intensification typhoon budget analysis

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A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1451-1471页

作者： jinfang yin Donghai WANG Guoqing ZHAI Hong WANG Huanbin XU Chongjian LIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China School of Earth Sciences Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519082China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Guangzhou 510080China

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical *** improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed ***,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope *** shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number *** addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been *** improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the *** IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge *** simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a *** IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows *** the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.

关键词： cloud and precipitation cloud microphysical processes double-moment microphysics scheme East Asia monsoon region(EAMR)

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Investigation into the Formation, Structure, and Evolution of an EF4 Tornado in East China Using a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第2期32卷 157-171页

作者： Dan YAO Haile XUE jinfang yin Jisong SUN Xudong LIANG Jianping GUO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Devastating tornadoes in China have received growing attention in recent years, but little is known about their formation, structure, and evolution on the tornadic scale. Most of these tornadoes develop within the East Asian monsoon regime, in an environment quite different from tornadoes in the U.S. In this study, we used an idealized, highresolution（25-m grid spacing） numerical simulation to investigate the deadly EF4（Enhanced Fujita scale category 4）tornado that occurred on 23 June 2016 and claimed 99 lives in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. A tornadic supercell developed in the simulation that had striking similarities to radar observations. The violent tornado in Funing County was reproduced, exceeding EF4（74 ms–1）, consistent with the on-site damage survey. It was accompanied by a funnel cloud that extended to the surface, and exhibited a double-helix vorticity structure. The signal of tornado genesis was found first at the cloud base in the pressure perturbation field, and then developed both upward and downward in terms of maximum vertical velocity overlapping with the intense vertical vorticity centers. The tornado＇s demise was found to accompany strong downdrafts overlapping with the intense vorticity centers. One of the interesting findings of this work is that a violent surface vortex was able to be generated and maintained, even though the simulation employed a free-slip lower boundary condition. The success of this simulation, despite using an idealized numerical approach, provides a means to investigate more historical tornadoes in China.

关键词： tornado Cloud Model version 1(CM1) vertical vorticity updraft helicity double-helix structure hazardous wind

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