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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100049, china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 15003., china Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

The influence of moderate ENSO on summer rainfall in eastern china and its comparison with strong ENSO

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第5期53卷 791-800页

作者： XUE Feng1 & LIU ChangZheng1,2 1 institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100049, china Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China.

The 6 major ENSO events since 1979 are classified into the strong and moderate ENSO based on in-tensity. The composite analysis is performed to reveal the influence of ENSO on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and summer rainfall in eastern china. It is shown that the influence is changed with the seasonal cycle in summer, with a weaker influence in June and a stronger influence in August, in-dicating a long lagged effect of ENSO on EASM. Besides, the circulation and rainfall anomalies caused by the strong ENSO are also stronger with an earlier starting time, while the influence of the moderate ENSO is evident in August. The composite summer rainfall in eastern china for the moderate ENSO exhibits a northern rainfall pattern, which is totally different from the classical ENSO-type rainfall pat-tern. Based on the composite analysis, two moderate ENSO years with a similar intensity (i.e., 1995 and 2003. are compared. The result shows that, the response of EASM to the moderate ENSO during June and July is, to a certain degree, modulated by the circulation systems in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and in the Southern Hemisphere, thereby inducing a different rainfall distribution in eastern china. In comparison with the strong ENSO in 1983. it is further revealed that, the strong ENSO plays a dominant role in summer rainfall anomalies in eastern china as well as in controlling the influence of the other factors on EASM. The strong ENSO is therefore different with the moderate ENSO.

关键词：中国东部海洋气象学厄尔尼诺现象东亚季风降雨

Some characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第6期16卷 644-648页

作者： GAO Li, LI Jianping and REN Hongli (LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100049, china National Climate Center, Laboratory of Climate Studies, china Meteorological Administration, {3. 100081, china) [a]LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [b]Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [c]National Climate Center Laboratory of Climatic Studies China Meterological Administration Beijing China

Some important characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process are investigated, which include the invariability of atmospheric entropy range and local surface potential temperature, the conservation of the atmospheric mass intervened between any isentropic surface and the ground, and the isentropic surface intersecting with the ground. The analysis shows that the atmospheric reference state (ARS) for investigation on available potential energy (APE) should be defined objectively as the state which could be approached from the existing atmosphere by adiabatic adjustment, and be related to initial atmospheric state before adjustment. For the initial atmosphere state at any time, its corresponding ARS is different from the one at another time. Based on the above-mentioned conclusions, the reference state proposed by Lorenz cannot be obtained physically, so a new conception, the conditional minimum total potential energy, is put forward in order to objectively investigate atmospheric APE.

关键词： available potential energy adiabatic isentropic surface atmospheric reference state conditional minimum total potential energy.

Speciation of the elements and compositions on the surfaces of dust storm particles:The evidence for the coupling of iron with sulfur in aerosol during the long-range transport

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第8期50卷 738-744页

作者： ZHANG Xingying1,2, ZHUANG Guoshun1,2,3. CHEN Jianmin2 & XUE Huaxin2 1. Center for atmospheric Environment Study, Department of Chemistry, beijing Normal University, beijing 100875,{3. 2. Center for atmospheric Chemistry Study, Department of Environ- mental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 20043.,{3. 3. LAPC/NZC, institute of atmospheric physics, NZC/LAPC, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029,{3. Center for atmospheric Environment Study Department of Chemistry Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Center for atmospheric Chemistry Study Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Fudan University Shanghai 200433 China LAPC/NZC Institute of Atmospheric Physics NZC/LAPC Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The speciation of the elements on the surface of the particles collected during dust storm and non-dust storm in beijing and Inner Mongolia was studied by XPS. The ma- jor species of iron on the surface were oxides, sulfate, silicate, FeOOH and minor part sorbed on SiO2/Al2O3. Sulfate is the dominant species of sulfur on the surface. SiO2 and Al2O3.are the main components of Si and Al on the surface respectively. One of the most important findings was that the Fe(II) (FeS and FeSO4) produced could account for up to 44.3. and 45.6% of the total Fe on the surface in the aerosol sample collected at that night and next day of the “peak” time of the dust storm occurring on March 20, 2002, while Fe2(SO4)3. one of the Fe(III) species on the surface decreased from 67.1% to 49.5% and 48.0% respectively. Both S and Fe en- riched on the surface of aerosol particles. Fe(II) accounted for 1.3.?5.3. of total Fe in bulk aerosol samples during dust storm. These results provided strong evidence to sup- port the hypothesis of the coupling between iron and sulfur in aerosols during the long-range transport, which would have important impact on the global biogeochemical cycle.

关键词：物种形成原理 XPS 大气悬浮物 Fe-S结合粒子集合

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3.1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,{3.,{3. 2. Department of atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091,{3. 3.{3. Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081,{3. 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10003.,{3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of atmospheric Sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over china

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第19期48卷 2121-2125页

作者： LANG Xianmei, WANG Huijun & JIANG Dabang Nansen-Zhu International Research Center and LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china Nansen Zhu International Research Center and LASG institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

Using the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 3.-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter climate is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1969—1998. Winter climate predictability over china is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter climate over china and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.

关键词：冬季气候中国气候预报数字模型表面温度

The Alternating-Direction Schemes and Numerical Analysis for the Three-dimensional Seawater Intrusion Simulation

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2002年第3期18卷 389-404页

作者： Zhi-yue ZhangLASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china & School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Mathematics and Computer Science Nanjing Normal University Nanjing China

Both numerical simulation and theoretical analysis of seawater intrusion in coastal regions are of great theoretical importance in environmental sciences. The mathematical model can be described as a coupled system of three dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations with initial-boundary value problems. In this paper, according to the actual conditions of molecular and three-dimensional characteristic of the problem, we construct the characteristic finite element alternating-direction schemes which can be divided into three continuous one-dimensional problems. By making use of tensor product algorithm, and priori estimation theory and techniques, the optimal order estimates in H1 norm are derived for the error in the approximate solution.

关键词： Three-dimensional seawater intrusion characteristic finite element alternating-direction optimal order estimate in H^1

Semi-analytical analysis of the response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第14期54卷 2499-2505页

作者： LIU Fei1,2 & CHAO JiPing3.4 1 institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100049, china 3.National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, {3. 100081, china 4 First institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration of china, Qingdao 266061, china institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China First institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration of China Qingdao 266061 China

Response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution is investigated, using a three-dimensional governing equation to simulate the steady, large-scale, limited amplitude perturbation of the free, inviscid and adiabatic atmosphere. The adoption of the static equation leads to a temperature governing equation in the terrain following coordinate. With the prescribed temperature as the upper boundary condition and the radiation balance as the lower boundary condition, the semi-analytical solution of the global circulation temperature can be calculated. In this article, only the air temperature (at 2 m height) over the land surface is analyzed, and the result suggests that this model can simulate the air temperature pattern over the land surface reasonably. A better simulation occurs when a simple feedback of the albedo on the temperature is included. Two sensitivity experiments are analyzed through this model. One suggests that the air temperature over the land surface descends obviously when the land surface is covered with ice all over, while another suggests that the air temperature rises a little when the land surface is covered with forest except the ice-covered area. This model appears to be a good tool to study the response of the air temperature to the vegetation distribution. Limitations of the model are also discussed.

关键词：空气温度植被分布陆地表面反应解析分析模拟模式控制方程边界条件

Concatenating construction of the multisymplectic schemes for 2+1-dimensional sine-Gordon equation

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Science china Mathematics 2004年第1期47卷 18-30页

作者： WANG Yushun, WANG Bin & QIN MengzhaoLASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, china School of Mathematics and System Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china 1. LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences 100029 Beijing China 2. School of Mathematics and Computer Science Nanjing Normal University 210097 Nanjing China 3. School of Mathematics and System Science Chinese Academy of Sciences 100080 Beijing China

In this paper, taking the 2+1-dimensional sine-Gordon equation as an example, we present the concatenating method to construct the multisymplectic schemes. The method is to discretizee independently the PDEs in different directions with symplectic schemes, so that the multisymplectic schemes can be constructed by concatenating those symplectic schemes. By this method, we can construct multisymplectic schemes, including some widely used schemes with an accuracy of any order. The numerical simulation on the collisions of solitons are also proposed to illustrate the efficiency of the multisymplectic schemes.

关键词： 2+l-climensional sine-Gordon equation multisymplectic scheme concatenating method solitons