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Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1024-1030页

作者： BUEH Cholaw LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North china increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North china implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North china, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North china, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

关键词：模拟亚洲东方季风气侯变化大气循环模型

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1251-1257页

作者： FAN Ke institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china Department of {3. Science, Yun-nan University, Kunming 650091, china 1. institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42 and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

关键词： typhoon sea ice cover North Pacific teleconnection

2002:The extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1031-1033页

作者： WANG Huijun LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science China

Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2002 and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the winter of 2002 is of the warmest in the recent 54 years in North Asia, which was caused by both decadal scale and interannual scale variability. The interannual variability is proved to be as the main cause for the event, and it is related to the global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, with the strongest of them in the Eastern Hemisphere and in the middle and high latitude region of the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词：大气环流亚洲北部高强度暖冬现象天气资料

Prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North china

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第5期51卷 709-720页

作者： LANG XianMei Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North china. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North china, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North china by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 3.-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.93. in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North china, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in china where dust weather occurs frequently.

关键词： spring dust weather frequency prediction model iap9l-agcm hindcast experiment real-time prediction

The influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming on the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第3期52卷 323-332页

作者： LI ShuangLin Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

During the past decades, concurrent with global warming, most of global oceans, particularly the tropical Indian Ocean, have become warmer. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) exhibits a deepening trend. Although previous modeling studies reveal that radiative cooling effect of ozone depletion plays a dominant role in causing the deepening of SPV, the simulated ozone-depletion-induced SPV deepening is stronger than the observed. This suggests that there must be other factors canceling a fraction of the influence of the ozone depletion. Whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming (IOW) is such a factor is unclear. This issue is addressed by conducting ensemble atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. And one idealized IOW with the amplitude as the observed is prescribed to force four AGCMs. The results show that the IOW tends to warm the southern polar stratosphere, and thus weakens SPV in austral spring to summer. Hence, it offsets a fraction of the effect of the ozone depletion. This implies that global warming will favor ozone recovery, since a warmer southern polar stratosphere is un-beneficial for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which is a key factor to ozone depletion chemical reactions.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean warming Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments planetary wave

Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： FAN Ke1,2,3.& WANG Huijun2 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of {3. Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

An improved δ-Eddington approximation

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第4期44卷 304-309页

作者： QIU Jinhuaninstitute of atmospheric physics , Chinese Academy of Sciences ,{3., china institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on an accuracy analysis of two-stream approximations, an improved δ-Eddington ap-proximation is developed. The approximation has much better accuracy than all exiting two-stream ap-proximations as the optical depth is less than unity. As the surface reflectance is zero and the opticaldepth is less than unity, errors in both transmission and reflection calculated by the present approxima-tion are more one time less than those by other two-stream approximations. In the case of aerosol opti-cal depth of3.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The errors are over 41% and one times lessthan those by Eddington or δ-Eddington.

关键词： radiation flux fractional factor of δ-function Eddington approximation.

Effects of zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature on tropical equilibrium states:A cloud-resolving modeling study

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第4期18卷 413-419页

作者： Xiaopeng Cui , Shouting Gao Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029,{3. Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The effects of zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical equilibrium states are investigated based on a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations with imposed zero vertical velocity, constant zonal wind, and a zonal model domain of 768 km. Four experiments with zonal SST perturbations of wavenumbers 1 (C1), 2 (C2), 4 (C3., and 8 (C4) are compared to a control experiment with zonally uniform SST (C0). The 40-day integrations show that the temperatures reach quasi-equilibrium states with dis- tinct differences. C1 and C2 produce warmer equilibrium states whereas C3.and C4 generate colder equilibrium states than C0 does. The heat budgets in the five experiments are analyzed. Compared to C0, less IR cooling over smaller clear-sky regions in C1 and more con- densational heating in C2 are responsible for warmer equilibrium states. A reduced condensational heating leads to the cold equilibrium state in C3. The interaction between convective systems in C4 causes a decrease of condensational heating, which accounts for the cold equilibrium state.

关键词： Tropical equilibrium states Sea surface temperature Zonal perturbation Cloud-resolving modeling study

A new approach to studying ENSO predictability:Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1045-1047页

作者： MU Mu & DUAN Wansuo LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

A new approach, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is introduced to study the predictability of El Ni駉-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a theoretical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The differences between CNOP and linear singular vector (LSV) are demonstrated. The results suggest that the nonlinear model and CNOP are superior in determining error growth for studying predictability of the ENSO. In particular, the CNOP approach is used to explore the nature of the 憇pring predictability barrier?in ENSO prediction.

关键词：研究方法非线性最优混乱条件天气预报 ENSO模型海洋大气模型