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A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and timeinvariant parameters

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Infectious disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1224-1249页

作者： Brandon robinson Philippe Bisaillon Jodi d.Edwards Tetyana Kendzerska Mohammad Khalil dominique Poirel Abhijit Sarkar department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Carleton UniversityOttawaON K1S 5B6Canada School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa and University of Ottawa Heart InstituteOttawaOntarioCanada ICES OttawaOntarioCanada The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute OttawaOntarioCanada department of Medicine Faculty of MedicineDivision of RespirologyUniversity of OttawaOttawaOntarioCanada Quantitative Modeling&Analysis department Sandia National LaboratoriesLivermoreCAUSA department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Royal Military College of CanadaKingstonONCanada

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both timevarying and time-invariant *** this manuscript,we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework as a continuation of our previous ***,this framework is specifically tailored to the susceptible-infectious-removed(SIR)model which describes a basic mechanism for the spread of infectious diseases through a system of coupled nonlinear differential *** SIR model consists of three states,namely,the susceptible,infectious,and removed *** coupling among these states is controlled by two parameters,the infection rate and the recovery *** simplicity of the SIR model and similar compartmental models make them applicable to many classes of infectious ***,the combined assumption of a deterministic model and time-invariance among the model parameters are two significant impediments which critically limit their use for long-term *** tendency of certain model parameters to vary in time due to seasonal trends,non-pharmaceutical interventions,and other random effects necessitates a model that structurally permits the incorporation of such time-varying *** to this,is the need for a robust mechanism for the estimation of the parameters of the resulting model from *** this end,we consider an augmented state vector,which appends the time-varying parameters to the original system states whereby the time evolution of the time-varying parameters are driven by an artificial noise process in a standard *** between time-varying and time-invariant parameters in this fashion limits the introduction of artificial dynamics into the system,and provides a robust,fully Bayesian approach for estimating the timeinvariant system parameters as well as the elements of the process noise covariance *** computational framework is implemented by leveraging the robustness of the Markov chain Mont

关键词： Time-varying parameter estimation Bayesian inference Stochastic compartmental models

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A comprehensive look at the psychoneuroimmunoendocrinology of spinal cord injury and its progression: mechanisms and clinical opportunities

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Military Medical Research 2024年第2期11卷 228-267页

作者： Miguel A.Ortega Oscar Fraile-Martinez Cielo García-Montero Sergio haro Miguel Ángel Álvarez-Mon diego de Leon-Oliva Ana M.Gomez-Lahoz Jorge Monserrat Mar Atienza-Pérez david díaz Elisa Lopez-dolado Melchor Álvarez-Mon department of Medicine and Medical Specialities University of Alcala28801 Alcala de HenaresSpain Ramón y Cajal Institute of Sanitary Research(IRyCIS) 28034 MadridSpain department of Psychiatry and Mental Health Hospital Universitario Infanta Leonor28031 MadridSpain Service of Rehabilitation National Hospital for Paraplegic PatientsCarr.de la PeraledaS/N45004 ToledoSpain Immune System diseases‑Rheumatology Service and Internal Medicine University Hospital Príncipe de Asturias(CIBEREHD)28806 Alcala de HenaresSpain

Spinal cord injury(SCI)is a devastating and disabling medical condition generally caused by a traumatic event(primary injury).This initial trauma is accompanied by a set of biological mechanisms directed to ameliorate neural damage but also exacerbate initial damage(secondary injury).The alterations that occur in the spinal cord have not only local but also systemic consequences and virtually all organs and tissues of the body incur important changes after SCI,explaining the progression and detrimental consequences related to this ***(PNIE)is a growing area of research aiming to integrate and explore the interactions among the different systems that compose the human organism,considering the mind and the body as a *** initial traumatic event and the consequent neurological disruption trigger immune,endocrine,and multisystem dysfunction,which in turn affect the patient's psyche and *** the present review,we will explore the most important local and systemic consequences of SCI from a PNIE perspective,defining the changes occurring in each system and how all these mechanisms are ***,potential clinical approaches derived from this knowledge will also be collectively presented with the aim to develop integrative therapies to maximize the clinical management of these patients.

关键词： Spinal cord injury(SCI) Psychoneuroimmunoendocrinology(PNIE) Secondary injury Immunoinflammatory dysfunction Gut microbiota Translational opportunities

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Metabolic collaboration between cells in the tumor microenvironment has a negligible effect on tumor growth

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The Innovation 2024年第2期5卷 107-114页

作者： Johan Gustafsson Fariba Roshanzamir Anders Hagnestål Sagar M.Patel Oseeyi I.daudu donald F.Becker Jonathan L.robinson Jens Nielsen department of Life Sciences Chalmers University of TechnologySE-41296 GothenburgSweden Hagnesia AB SE-43854 HindåsSweden department of Biochemistry and Redox Biology Center University of Nebraska-LincolnLincolnNE 68588USA BioInnovation Institute DK2200 CopenhagenDenmark

The tumor microenvironment is composed of a complex mixture of different cell types interacting under conditions of nutrient deprivation,but the metabolism therein is not fully understood due to difficulties in measuring metabolic fluxes and exchange of metabolites between different cell types in ***-scale metabolic modeling enables estimation of such exchange fluxes as well as an opportunity to gain insight into the metabolic behavior of individual cell ***,we estimated the availability of nutrients and oxygen within the tumor microenvironment using concentration measurements from blood together with a metabolite diffusion *** addition,we developed an approach to efficiently apply enzyme usage constraints in a comprehensive metabolic model of human *** combined modeling reproduced severe hypoxic conditions and the Warburg effect,and we found that limitations in enzymatic capacity contribute to cancer cells’preferential use of glutamine as a substrate to the citric acid ***,we investigated the common hypothesis that some stromal cells are exploited by cancer cells to produce metabolites useful for the cancer *** identified over 200 potential metabolites that could support collaboration between cancer cells and cancer-associated fibroblasts,but when limiting to metabolites previously identified to participate in such collaboration,no growth advantage was *** work highlights the importance of enzymatic capacity limitations for cell behaviors and exemplifies the utility of enzyme-constrained models for accurate prediction of metabolism in cells and tumor microenvironments.

关键词： metabolism effect limitations

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Exercise training improves long-term memory in obese mice

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Life Metabolism 2024年第1期3卷 37-50页

作者： Oliver K.Fuller Casey L.Egan Tina L.robinson Nimna Perera Heidy K.Latchman Lauren V.Terry Emma d.McLennan Carolina Chavez Emma L.Burrows John W.Scott Robyn M.Murphy Henriette van Praag Martin Whitham Mark A.Febbraio Monash Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences Monash UniversityMelbourneVictoria3052Australia La Trobe Institute for Molecular Science La Trobe UniversityMelbourneVictoria3086Australia Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health University of MelbourneMelbourneVictoria3052Australia department of Biomedical Sciences Charles E.Schmidt College of Medicineand Stiles-Nicholson Brain InstituteFlorida Atlantic UniversityJupiterFL 33458United States College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of BirminghamEdgbastonBirmingham B152TTUnited Kingdom

Obesity has been linked to a range of pathologies,including *** contrast,regular physical activity is associated with the prevention or reduced progression of ***,physical activity can improve memory and spatial cognition,reduce age-related cognitive decline,and preserve brain volume,but the mechanisms are not fully ***,we investigated whether any detrimental effects of high-fat diet(HFd)-induced obesity on cognition,motor behavior,adult hippocampal neurogenesis,and brain-derived neurotrophic factor(BdNF)could be mitigated by voluntary exercise training in male C57Bl/6 ***-induced impairment of motor function was not reversed by ***,voluntary wheel running improved long-term memory and increased hippocampal neurogenesis,suggesting that regular physical activity may prevent cognitive decline in obesity.

关键词： obesity exercise cognition

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Functional group resolved NMR relaxation of 3-carbon adsorbates in mesoporous alumina

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Magnetic Resonance Letters 2023年第3期3卷 248-255,I0004页

作者： Neil robinson Carmine d’Agostino Michael LJohns department of Chemical Engineering The University of Western Australia35 Stirling HighwayPerthWA 6009Australia department of Chemical Engineering The University of ManchesterOxford RoadManchesterM139PLUK dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ChimicaAmbientale e Dei Materiali(DICAM)Alma Mater Studiorum e Universita di BolognaVia Terracini28Bologna40131Italy

NMR relaxation analysis provides a unique and non-invasive probe of fluid dynamics within porous materials,and may be applied to the interpretation of a wide variety of material and interfacial ***,we report two-dimensional^(1)H T_(1)-T_(2)relaxation correlation measurements of a range of three-carbon adsorbates(1-propanol,2-propanol and propanoic acid)imbibed within the mesoporous metal oxide *** data,acquired across field strengths of 2 MHz,12.7 MHz and 43 MHz,clearly reveal two populations in each measurement,identified as the alkyl and hydroxyl moieties of each *** results expand the range of materials in which such functional group resolved relaxation is known to occur,and demonstrate the clear persistence of such phenomena using a range of typical benchtop NMR systems employed to study fluid-saturated porous media.

关键词： NMR relaxation Adsorption Porous media Low-field NMR

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Prehospital transdermal glyceryl trinitrate for ultra- acute ischaemic stroke: data from the RIGHT- 2 randomised sham- controlled ambulance trial

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Stroke & Vascular Neurology 2024年第1期9卷 38-49,I0035-I0046页

作者： Jason Philip Appleton Lisa J Woodhouse Craig S Anderson Sandeep Ankolekar Lesley Cala Mark dixon Timothy J England Kailash Krishnan Grant Mair Keith W Muir John Potter Christopher I Price Marc Randall Thompson G robinson Christine Roffe Else C Sandset Jeffrey L Saver Angela Shone Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena Joanna M Wardlaw Nikola Sprigg Philip M Bath Stroke University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation TrustBirminghamUK Institute of Applied HealthResearch University of Birmingham College of Medical and Dental SciencesBirminghamUK Stroke Trials Unit Mental Health and Clinical NeurosciencesUniversity of NottinghamNottinghamUK Faculty of Medicine The George Institute for Global HealthSydneyNew South WalesAustralia The George Institute China at Peking University Health Science Center BeijingChina Neurology Royal Prince Alfred HospitalSydney Health PartnersSydneyNew South WalesAustralia department of Neurology King's College Hospital NHS Foundation TrustLondonUK Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences University of Western AustraliaCrawleyWestern AustraliaAustralia East Midlands Ambulance Service NHS Trust NottinghamUK Stroke Queen's Medical CentreNottingham University Hospitals NHS TrustNottinghamUK Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences Dementia Research InstituteUniveristy of EdinburghEdinburghUK Institute of Neurology and Psychology University of GlasgowGlasgowUK Bob Champion Research and Education Building University of East AngliaNorwichUK Institute of Neuroscience Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK department of Neurology Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS TrustLeedsUK department of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre University of LeicesterLeicesterUK Stroke Research in Stoke Institute for Science and Technology in MedicineKeele UniversityStoke-on TrentUK department of Neurology Oslo University HospitalOsloNorway Research and development Norwegian Air Ambulance FoundationOsloNorway department of Neurology and Comprehensive Stroke Center David Geffen School of MedicineUCLALos AngelesCaliforniaUSA Research and Graduate Services University of NottinghamNottinghamUK Community and Health Research Unit University of LincolnLincolnUK

Background The effect of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate(GTN,a nitrovasodilator)on clinical outcome when administered before hospital admission in suspected stroke patients is ***,we assess the safety and efficacy of GTN in the prespecified subgroup of patients who had an ischaemic stroke within the Rapid Intervention with Glyceryl trinitrate in Hypertensive stroke Trial-2(RIGHT-2).Methods RIGHT-2 was an ambulance-based multicentre sham-controlled blinded-endpoint study with patients randomised within 4hours of *** primary outcome was a shift in scores on the modified Rankin scale(mRS)at day *** outcomes included death;a global analysis(Wei-Lachin test)containing Barthel Index,EuroQol-5d,mRS,telephone interview for cognitive status-modified and Zung depression scale;and neuroimaging-determined‘brain frailty’*** were reported as n(%),mean(Sd),median[IQR],adjusted common OR(acOR),mean difference or Mann-Whitney difference(MWd)with 95%*** 597 of 1149(52%)patients had a final diagnosis of ischaemic stroke;age 75(12)years,premorbid mRS>2107(18%),Glasgow Coma Scale 14(2)and time from onset to randomisation 67[45,108]***‘brain frailty’was common:median score 2[2,3](range 0–3).At day 90,GTN did not influence the primary outcome(acOR for increased disability 1.15,95%CI 0.85 to 1.54),death or global analysis(MWd 0.00,95%CI-0.10 to 0.09).In subgroup analyses,there were non-significant interactions suggesting GTN may be associated with more death and dependency in participants randomised within 1hour of symptom onset and in those with more severe *** In patients who had an ischaemic stroke,ultra-acute administration of transdermal GTN in the ambulance did not improve clinical outcomes in a population with more clinical and radiological frailty than seen in previous in-hospital *** IS ALREAdy KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC⇒Transdermal glyceryl trinitrate(GTN)was associat-ed with less death and dependency in those w

关键词： Glasgow nitrate random

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Long-term changes in biological soil crust cover and composition

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Ecological Processes 2013年第1期2卷 54-63页

作者： Eva dettweiler-robinson Jeanne M Ponzetti Jonathan d Bakker department of Biology University of New MexicoMSC0320201 University of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNM 98131U.S.A. 2914 Central St.SE OlympiaWA 98501U.S.A. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of WashingtonBox 354115SeattleWA98195-4115U.S.A.

Introduction:Communities change over time due to disturbances,variations in climate,and species *** soil crust communities are important because they contribute to erosion control and nutrient *** types may respond differently to changes in environmental conditions:single-celled organisms and bryophytes quickly recover after a disturbance,while lichens are slow growing and dominate favorable *** change in crusts has seldom been assessed using repeated *** this study,we hypothesized that changes in crust composition were related to disturbance,topographic position,and invasive ***:We monitored permanent plots in the Columbia Basin in 1999 and 2010 and compared changes in crust composition,cover,richness,and turnover with predictor variables of herbivore exclosure,elevation,heat load index,time since fire,presence of an invasive grass,and change in cover of the invasive ***:Bryophytes were cosmopolitan with high *** lichens did not change *** taxa differed by monitoring *** and total crust cover declined,and there was lower turnover outside of herbivore *** cover did not change *** that burned recently had high *** in taxon richness was correlated with presence of an invasive grass in *** in cover of the invasive grass was positively related to proportional loss and negatively related to ***:Composition and turnover metrics differed significantly over 11 years,though cover was more stable between *** study can be a baseline for assessing change in crust composition due to anthropogenic influences.

关键词： Biological soil crust Columbia basin Composition change Taxa turnover rate Fire Bromus tectorum Livestock exclosure

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Paleoecological Response of Corals to the End-Triassic Mass Extinction： An Integrational Analysis

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Journal of Earth Science 2018年第4期29卷 879-885页

作者： George d Stanley Jr Hannah M E Shepherd Autumn J robinson University of Montana Paleontology Center Missoula MT 59812 USA

The end-Triassic （also Triassic-Jurassic） mass extinction severely affected life on planet Earth 200 million years ago. Paleoclimate change triggered by the volcanic eruptions of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province （CAMP） caused a great loss of marine biodiversity, among which 96% coral genera were get lost. However, there is precious little detail on the paleoecology and growth forms lost between the latest Triassic extinction and the Early Jurassic recovery. Here a new pilot study was conducted by analyzing corallite integration levels among corals from the latest Triassic and Early Jurassic times. Integration levels in corals from the Late Triassic and Early Jurassic were determined through both the Paleobiology database as well as from a comprehensive museum collection of fossil corals. Results suggest that in addition to a major loss of diversity following the end-Triassic mass extinction, there also was a significant loss of highly integrated corals as clearly evidenced by the coral data from the Early Jurassic. This confirms our hypothesis of paleoecological selectivity for corals following the end-Triassic mass extinction. This study highlights the importance of assigning sim- ple to advanced paleoecological characters with integration levels, which opens a useful approach to understanding of mass extinction and the dynamics of the recovery.

关键词： coral loss integration level end-Triassic mass extinction paleoecology

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Non-invasive means of measuring hepatic fat content

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2008年第22期14卷 3476-3483页

作者： Sanjeev R Mehta E Louise Thomas Jimmy d Bell desmond G Johnston Simon d Taylor-robinson division of Medicine Imperial College London St Mary's Campus Praed Street London W2 1NY United Kingdom Imaging Sciences depart-ment Division of Clinical Sciences Imperial College London Hammersmith Campus Du Cane Road London W12 OHS United Kingdom

Hepatic steatosis affects 20% to 30% of the general adult population in the western world. Currently, the technique of choice for determining hepatic fat deposition and the stage of fibrosis is liver biopsy. However, it is an invasive procedure and its use is limited, particularly in children. It may also be subject to sampling error. Non-invasive techniques such as ultrasound, computerised tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H MRS) can detect hepatic steatosis, but currently cannot distinguish between simple steatosis and steatohepatitis, or stage the degree of fibrosis accurately. Ultrasound is widely used to detect hepatic steatosis, but its sensitivity is reduced in the morbidly obese and also in those with small amounts of fatty infiltration. It has been used to grade hepatic fat content, but this is subjective. CT can detect hepatic steatosis, but exposes subjects to ionising radiation, thus limiting its use in longitudinal studies and in children. Recently, magnetic resonance (MR) techniques using chemical shift imaging have provided a quantitative assessment of the degree of hepatic fatty infiltration, which correlates well with liver biopsy results in the same patients. Similarly, in vivo 1H MRS is a fast, safe, non-invasive method forthe quantification of intrahepatocellular lipid (IHCL) levels. Both techniques will be useful tools in future longitudinal clinical studies, either in examining the natural history of conditions causing hepatic steatosis (e.g. non-alcoholic fatty liver disease), or in testing new treatments for these conditions.

关键词： Adipose tissue Ectopic fat Hepatic fat Insulin resistance Ultrasound Computerised tomography Magnetic resonance imaging Magnetic resonance spectroscopy

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深海环境海洋生态系统监测与修复新技术

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Engineering 2024年第3期34卷 195-211页

作者： Jacopo Aguzzi Laurenz Thomsen Sascha Flögel Nathan J.robinson Giacomo Picardi damianos Chatzievangelou Nixon Bahamon Sergio Stefanni Jordi Grinyó Emanuela Fanelli Cinzia Corinaldesi Joaquin del Rio Fernandez Marcello Calisti Furu Mienis Elias Chatzidouros Corrado Costa Simona Violino Michael Tangherlini Roberto danovaro Instituto de Ciencias del Mar(ICM-CSIC) Barcelona 08003Spain Stazione Zoologica Anton dohrn Naples 80121Italy University of Gothenburg Göteborg 40530Sweden GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel 24148Germany Fundación Oceanogràfic de la Comunitat Valenciana Valencia 46013Spain Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research(NIOZ) Den Burg Texel 1790 ABNetherlands Polytechnic University of Marche(UNIVPM) Ancona 60131Italy SARTI-MAR of the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya(UPC) Vilanova i la Geltrú08800Spain Lincoln Institute for Agri-food Technology University of LincolnLincoln LN22LGUK Engitec Systems International Limited Limassol 3083Cyprus Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi dell’economia Agraria(CREA) Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni AgroalimentariMonterotondo 00015Italy

The United Nations(UN)’s call for a decade of“ecosystem restoration”was prompted by the need to address the extensive impact of anthropogenic activities on natural *** ecosystem restoration is increasingly necessary due to increasing habitat degredation in deep waters(>200 m depth).At these depths,which are far beyond those accessible by divers,only established and emerging robotic platforms such as remotely operated vehicles(ROVs),autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs),landers,and crawlers can operate through manipulators and multiparametric sensor arrays(e.g.,optoacoustic imaging,omics,and environmental probes).The use of advanced technologies for deep-sea ecosystem restoration can provide:①high-resolution three-dimensional(3d)imaging and acoustic mapping of substrates and key taxa,②physical manipulation of substrates and key taxa,③real-time supervision of remote operations and long-term ecological monitoring,and④the potential to work ***,we describe how robotic platforms with in situ manipulation capabilities and payloads of innovative sensors could autonomously conduct active restoration and monitoring across large spatial *** expect that these devices will be particularly useful in deep-sea habitats,such as①reef-building cold-water corals,②soft-bottom bamboo corals,and③soft-bottom fishery resources that have already been damaged by offshore industries(i.e.,fishing and oil/gas).

关键词： Ecosystem restoration Robotic manipulation Acoustic tracking Fishery resources Artificial reefs

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