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Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 237-252页

作者： Yinghan SANG Hong-Li REN Xueli SHI Xiaofeng XU Haishan CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies&CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of historical surface soil moisture simulation(1979-2012)over Eurasia at annual and seasonal time scales between two medium-resolution versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)—one that is currently participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),i.e.,BCC-CSM2-MR,and the other,BCC-CSM1.1m,which participated in CMIP5.We show that BCC-CSM2-MR is more skillful in reproducing the climate mean states and standard deviations of soil moisture,with pattern correlations increased and biases reduced significantly.BCC-CSM2-MR performs better in capturing the first two primary patterns of soil moisture anomalies,where the period of the corresponding time series is closer to that of reference data.Comparisons show that BCC-CSM2-MR performs at a high level among multiple models of CMIP6 in terms of centered pattern correlation and“amplitude of variation”(relative standard deviation).In general,the centered pattern correlation of BCC-CSM2-MR,ranging from 0.61 to 0.87,is higher than the multi-model mean of CMIP6,and the relative standard deviation is 0.75,which surmounts the overestimations in most of the CMIP6 models.Due to the vital role played by precipitation in land-atmosphere interaction,possible causes of the improvement of soil moisture simulation are further related to precipitation in BCC-CSM2-MR.The results indicate that a better description of the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation and a better reproduction of the climate mean precipitation by the model may result in the improved performance of soil moisture simulation.

关键词： BCC-CSM soil moisture CMIP6 historical simulation Eurasia

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Long-term outcomes of additional surgery versus non-gastrectomy treatment for early gastric cancer after non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection: a meta-analysis

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Chinese Medical Journal 2023年第5期136卷 528-535页

作者： Sixuan Li xueli Tian Jingyao Wei Yanyan shi Hua Zhang Yonghui Huang Health Science Center Peking UniversityBeijing 100191China Department of Gastroenterology Peking University Third HospitalBeijing 100191China Research Center of Clinical Epidemiology Peking University Third HospitalBeijing 100191China

Background:Endoscopic resection is increasingly used in the treatment for early gastric cancer(EGC);however,about 15%of endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD)cases report non-curative resection.The efficacy of different remedial interventions after non-curative ESD for EGC remains controversial.This meta-analysis aimed to compare the long-term outcomes of additional surgery and non-gastrectomy treatment for EGC patients who underwent non-curative ESD.Methods:All relevant studies published up to October 2021 were systematically searched in the PubMed,Web of Science,and Embase databases.The medical subject headings terms"early gastric cancer,""gastrectomy,""endoscopic submucosal dissection,"and their related free keywords were used to search relevant articles without restrictions on regions,publication types,or languages.The Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale was used to evaluate the quality of the included studies.Odds ratios(ORs)with 95%confidence intervals(CIs)of 5-year overall survival(OS),disease-specific survival(DSS),disease-free survival(DFS)and hazard ratios(HRs)with 95%CIs of OS were calculated using a random-or fixed-effects model.Results:This meta-analysis included 17 retrospective cohort studies with 5880 patients,of whom 3167 underwent additional surgery and 2713 underwent non-gastrectomy.We found that patients receiving additional gastrectomy had better 5-year OS(OR=3.63,95%CI=3.05–4.31),DSS(OR=3.22,95%CI=2.22–4.66),and DFS(OR=4.39,95%CI=1.78–10.82)outcomes than those receiving non-gastrectomy treatments.The pooled HR also showed that gastrectomy following non-curative ESD significantly improved OS(HR=0.40,95%CI=0.33–0.48).In addition,elderly patients benefited from additional surgery in consideration of the 5-year OS(HR=0.54,95%CI=0.41–0.72).Conclusions:Compared with non-gastrectomy treatments,additional surgery offered better long-term survival outcomes for patients with EGC who underwent non-curative ESD.

关键词： Endoscopic mucosal resection Stomach neoplasms Non-curative resection Additional surgery Non-gastrectomy treatment Disease-free survival

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Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks of BCC-CSM to Idealized CO2 Forcing from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 865-878页

作者： Xueli SHI Xiaolong CHEN Yunwei DAI Guoquan HU National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101 Huafeng Meteorological Media Group China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Climate sensitivity represents the response of climate system to doubled CO2 concentration relative to the preindustrial level, which is one of the sources of uncertainty in climate projections. It is unclear how the climate sensitivity and feedbacks will change as a model system is upgraded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) to CMIP6. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing two versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) participating in CMIP6 and CMIP5, i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM1.1 m,which have the same horizontal resolution but different physical parameterizations. The results show that the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS) of BCC-CSM slightly increases from CMIP5(2.94 K) to CMIP6(3.04 K). The small changes in the ECS result from compensation between decreased effective radiative forcing(ERF) and the increased net feedback. In contrast, the transient climate response(TCR) evidently decreases from 2.19 to 1.40 K, nearly the lower bound of the CMIP6 multimodel spread. The low TCR in BCC-CSM2-MR is mainly caused by the small ERF overly even though the ocean heat uptake(OHU) efficiency is substantially improved from that in BCC-CSM1.1 m.Cloud shortwave feedback(λSWCL) is found to be the major cause of the increased net feedback in BCC-CSM2-MR,mainly over the Southern Ocean. The strong positive λSWCL in BCC-CSM2-MR is coincidently related to the weakened sea ice-albedo feedback in the same region. This result is caused by reduced sea ice coverage simulated during the preindustrial cold season, which leads to reduced melting per 1-K global warming. As a result, in BCCCSM2-MR, reduced surface heat flux and strengthened static stability of the planetary boundary layer cause a decrease in low-level clouds and an increase in incident shortwave radiation. This study reveals the important compensation between λSWCL and sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean.

关键词： Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) climate sensitivity cloud feedback sea icealbedo feedback Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)

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Climate effects of the GlobeLand30 land cover dataset on the Beijing Climate Center climate model simulations

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第9期59卷 1754-1764页

作者： shi xueli NIE SuPing JU WeiMin YU Le National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China International Institute for Earth System Science (ESSI) Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing 100875 China

Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution(30 m) global land cover dataset(Globe Land30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the Globe Land30 data in the model. First, the Globe Land30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type(PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution Globe Land30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The Globe Land30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies(lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the Globe Land30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the Globe Land30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.

关键词：土地覆盖类型气候影响数据集模式模拟北京面积加权法气候模型陆地表面

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‘Initial’ Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2009年第2期8卷 111-120页

作者： shi xueli Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 P. R. China

In this study,the effects of ‘initial’ soil moisture(SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations(denoted as CTL),a series of sensitivity experiments were conducted,including the DRY and WET experiments,in which the simulated ‘initial’ SM over the region 30 –50°N,75 –105°E was only 5% and 50%,and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL,respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased,the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL,the latent(sensible) heat flux there increases(decreases),and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially,the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease,geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addition,the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature,the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate,and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere,which needs further investigation.

关键词：区域气候模式土壤水分中国细胞毒性T淋巴细胞敏感性实验控制模拟温度降低敏感性试验

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CMIP6模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟能力评估及未来预估

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气候与环境研究 2024年第1期29卷 75-89页

作者：陈红史学丽中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081 中国气象局地球系统数值预报重点开放实验室北京100081

基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(Snow Water Equivalent,SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对1981~2014年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了21世纪欧亚大陆... 详细信息

基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(Snow Water Equivalent,SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对1981~2014年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了21世纪欧亚大陆SWE的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP6耦合模式对冬季欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE空间分布具有较好的再现能力,能模拟出欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE的主要分布特征;耦合模式对SWE变化趋势及经验正交函数主要模态特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,但多模式集合能提高模式对SWE变化趋势和主要时空变化特征的模拟能力;此外,多模式集合结果对欧亚大陆冬季SWE与降水、气温的关系也有较好的再现能力。预估结果表明,21世纪欧亚大陆东北大部分地区的SWE均要高于基准期(1995~2014年),而90°E以西的欧洲大陆SWE基本上呈现减少的特征;21世纪早期,4种不同排放情景下积雪变化的差异不大,但21世纪后期积雪变化的幅度差异较大,而且排放越高积雪变化的幅度越大,模式不确定性也越大;进一步的分析表明,欧亚大陆冬季未来积雪变化特征的空间分布与全球变化背景下局地气温、降水的变化密切相关,高温高湿的条件有利于欧亚大陆东北部积雪的增多。

关键词：欧亚大陆雪水当量 CMIP6 模式冬季模拟预估

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Fluid inclusions,C-H-O-S-Pb isotope systematics,geochronology and geochemistry of the Budunhua Cu deposit,northeast China:Implications for ore genesis

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Geoscience Frontiers 2020年第4期11卷 1145-1161页

作者： Kaituo shi Keyong Wang xueli Ma Shunda Li Jian Li Rui Wang College of Earth Sciences Jilin UniversityChangchun130061China College of Geology and Mining Engineering Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi830047China MNR Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources Evaluation in Northeast Asia Changchun130061China

The Budunhua Cu deposit is located in the Tuquan ore-concentrated area of the southern Great Xing’an Range,NE China.This deposit includes the southern Jinjiling and northern Kongqueshan ore blocks,separated by the Budunhua granitic pluton.Cu mineralization occurs mainly as stockworks or veins in the outer contact zone between tonalite porphyry and Permian metasandstone.The ore-forming process can be divided into four stages involving stage Ⅰ quartz-pyrite-arsenopyrite;stage Ⅱ quartz-pyrite-chalcopyrite-pyrrhotite;stage Ⅲ quartz--polynetallic sulfides;and stage IV quartz-calcite.Three types of fluid inclusions(FIs) can be distinguished in the Budunhua deposit:liquid-rich two-phase aqueous FIs(L-type),vapour-rich aqueous FIs(V-type),and daughter mineral-bearing multi-phase FIs(S-type).Quartz of stages Ⅰ-Ⅲ contains all types of FIs,whereas only L-type FIs are evident in stage Ⅳ veins.The coexisting V-and S-type FIs of stages Ⅰ-Ⅲ have similar homogenization temperatures but contrasting salinities,which indicates that fluid boiling occurred.The FIs of stages Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,and Ⅳyield homogenization temperatures of 265-396℃,245-350℃,200-300℃,and 90-228℃ with salinities of3.4-44.3 wt.%,2.9-40.2 wt.%,1.4-38.2 wt.%,and 0.9-9.2 wt.% NaCl eqv.,respectively.Ore-forming fluids of the Budunhua deposit are characterized by high temperatures,moderate salinities,and relatively oxidizing conditions typical of an H2 O-NaCl fluid system.Mineralization in the Budunhua deposit occurred at a depth of0.3-1.5 km,with fluid boiling and mixing likely being responsible for ore precipitation.C-H-O-S-Pb isotope studies indicate a predominantly magmatic origin for the ore-forming fluids and materials.LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb analyses indicate that ore-forming tonalite porphyry and post-ore dioritic porphyrite were formed at 151.1±1.1 Ma and 129.9±1.9 Ma,respectively.Geochemical data imply that the primary magma of the tonalite porphyry formed through partial melting of Neoproterozoic lower crust.On the basis of available evidence,we suggest that the Budun

关键词： Fluid inclusion C-H-O-S-Pb isotopes Zircon U-Pb geochronology Whole-rock geochemistry Budunhua Cu deposit Southern great Xing’an range

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Unclear but present danger:An asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carrier

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Genes & Diseases 2020年第4期7卷 558-566页

作者： Xuejing Yu Dongchuan Ran Jinhui Wang Yuan Qin Ruishan Liu Xueli SHI Yiping Wang Chang Xie Jia Jiang Jianzhong Zhou University of Utah School of Medicine Cardiothoracic Surgery Department15 N.Medical Drive Room 552084112-5650Salt Lake CityUTUSA Chongqing University Three Gorges Hospital #165 Xincheng RoadWanzhou DistrictChongqing404000China The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University #1 Yuanjiagang Youyi RoadYuzhong DistrictChongqing400016China

Superspreaders are critical infectious resources in multiple infectious diseases.They can be asymptomatic or present mild symptoms but can transmit pathogens to susceptible populations,leading to severe symptoms,and even death.Early identification of this population is extremely important to inhibit the spread of infectious diseases.Right now,the whole global world is suffering from a devastating infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).In this article,a superspreader cluster event in coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)was identified by tracking contacting histories of infected patients.This cluster was found to be originated from an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carrier,which resulted in 13 secondary cases getting infected.All the secondary patients presented with non-typical symptoms of COVID-19,such as fever,dry cough,and myalgia,one of which died of respiratory failure at the end.From this cluster,we learn that people with older ages,low immunity,multiple underlying diseases,especially pulmonary diseases,can contribute to a poor prognosis.Thus,asymptomatic superspreaders of COVID-19 can be extremely dangerous and must be handled time-efficiently.

关键词： Asymptomatic Coronavirus COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Superspreader

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A nonchlorinated solvent-processed polymer semiconductor for high-performance ambipolar transistors

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National Science Review 2022年第4期9卷 139-147页

作者： Jie Yang Yaqian Jiang Zhiyuan Zhao xueli Yang Zheye Zhang Jinyang Chen Junyu Li Wei shi Shuai Wang Yunlong Guo Yunqi Liu Beijing National Laboratory for Molecular Sciences Key Laboratory of Organic SolidsInstitute of ChemistryChinese Academy of Sciences School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Ambipolar polymer semiconductors are potentially serviceable for logic circuits, light-emitting field-effect transistors(LFETs) and polymer solar cells(PSCs). Although several high-performance ambipolar polymers have been developed, their optoelectronic devices are generally processed from toxic chlorinated solvents. To achieve the commercial applications of organic FETs(OFETs), the polymers should be processed from nonchlorinated solvents, instead of chlorinated solvents. However, most conjugated polymers show poor solubility in nonchlorinated solvents. It is of great importance to develop ambipolar polymers that can be processed from nonchlorinated solvents. Here, we develop a nonchlorinated solvent processed polymer named poly[7-fluoro-N, N′-di(4-decyltetradecyl)-7′-azaisoindigo-6′,6′′-(thieno[3,2-b]thiophene-2,5-diyl)-7′′′-fluoro-N′′, N′′′-di(4-decyltetradecyl)-7′′-azaisoindigo-6,6′′′-([2,2′′-bithiophene]-5,5′′-diyl)](PITTI-BT) by designing a monomer with a large molar mass. The polymer displays good solubility in p-xylene(PX). Well-aligned films of PITTI-BT are achieved by an off-center spin-coating(SC) method. Based on the high-quality films, the OFETs fabricated from PX solution achieve record ambipolar performance with hole and electron mobilities of 3.06 and2.81 cm~2 V-1s-1, respectively. The combination of nonchlorinated solvents and good alignment process offers an effective and eco-friendly approach to obtain high-performance ambipolar transistors.

关键词： nonchlorinated solvent high performance ambipolar transistor alignment

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A Strategy for Merging Objective Estimates of Global Daily Precipitation from Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Predictions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第7期33卷 889-904页

作者： Suping NIE Tongwen WU Yong LUO xueliang DENG Xueli SHI Zaizhi WANG Xiangwen LIU Jianbin HUANG National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing Anhui Institute of Meteorology

This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates （SEs）, and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps. First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions （MPs） over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation （OI）-based merging scheme （referred as the HL-OI scheme） is used to combine unbiased gahge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge--satellite-model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d （Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution）, with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period （2011- 14） demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality. Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD （GPCP one-degree daily） show that the consistencies between B MEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events.

关键词： global daily precipitation multi-source merging strategy bias correction quantitative error estimation

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