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Effects of Doubled Carbon Dioxide on Rainfall Responses to Large-Scale Forcing:A Two-Dimensional Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第3期31卷 525-531页

作者： LI Xiaofan shen xinyong LIU Jia Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.

关键词： doubled carbon dioxide radiation latent heat condensation rainfall cloud-resolving model simulation

The evolution of hollow symmetric-PV tower during the landfall of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 817-828页

作者： Baofeng JIAO Lingkun RAN xinyong shen Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The evolution of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)during the landfall period is determined using potential vorticity(PV)based on a high-resolution numerical *** heating from deep moist convections in the eyewall produces a hollow PV tower extending from the lower troposphere to the middle *** the potential temperature and wind fields could be highly asymmetric during landfall,the fields are divided into symmetric and asymmetric ***,PV is split into three parts:symmetric PV,first-order asymmetric PV,and quadratic-order asymmetric *** calculating the azimuth mean,the first-order term *** symmetric PV is at least one order of magnitude larger than the azimuthal mean quadratic-order term,nearly accounting for the mean ***,the symmetric PV tendency equation is derived in cylindrical *** budget terms include the symmetric heating term,flux divergence of symmetric PV advection due to symmetric flow,flux divergence of partial first-order PV advection due to asymmetric flow,and the conversion term between the symmetric PV and quadratic-order asymmetric *** diagnostic results indicate that the symmetric heating term is responsible for the hollow PV tower generation and *** symmetric flux divergence largely offsets the symmetric heating contribution,resulting in a horizontal narrow ring and vertical extension *** conversion term contribution is comparable to the mean term contributions,while the contribution of the partial first-order PV asymmetric flux divergence is apparently *** conversion term implicitly contains the combined effects of processes that result in asymmetric *** term tends to counteract the contribution of symmetric terms before landfall and favor horizontal PV mixing after landfall.

关键词： landfall typhoon potential vorticity hollow PV tower asymmetric features

5月南极涛动对青藏高原西部夏季气温影响的诊断分析

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气象 2024年第3期50卷 344-356页

作者：张宇李清泉余锦华沈新勇毕淼吴清源南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 珠海519082 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室重庆市气象科学研究所重庆401147

青藏高原是全球气候变暖最敏感的地区之一,是北半球夏季最大的热源,其气候响应受到广泛关注。然而,有关南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系和机理知之甚少。为了研究南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系,基于1979—2020年英国东安哥拉大学... 详细信息

青藏高原是全球气候变暖最敏感的地区之一,是北半球夏季最大的热源,其气候响应受到广泛关注。然而,有关南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系和机理知之甚少。为了研究南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系,基于1979—2020年英国东安哥拉大学气候研究中心(CRU)的逐月气温、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的逐月海表面温度和大气环流再分析数据以及南极涛动指数等数据,采用相关、回归、合成分析等方法进行研究。结果表明,北半球夏季青藏高原西部气温与5月南极涛动存在显著负相关,即当5月南极涛动异常偏弱时,夏季青藏高原西部气温异常偏高。其影响过程为,南极涛动为正位相时,在南印度洋中高纬地区出现“负-正-负”的经向“三极子”海温模态,该模态可持续到夏季,在印度洋形成异常的纬向-垂直环流,相应在热带西印度洋和东印度洋-海洋性大陆之间的降水异常导致热带正“偶极子”降水模态,通过该降水模态在青藏高原西部引起异常反气旋环流和下沉运动,有利于高原西部气温偏高。研究结果显示,海洋的热惯性在“延长”南极涛动影响过程中起着重要的桥梁作用,可为青藏高原夏季气温预测提供科学依据。

关键词：南极涛动青藏高原印度洋气温

Three-Dimensional Wind Field Retrieved from Dual-Doppler Radar Based on a Variational Method:Refinement of Vertical Velocity Estimates

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第1期39卷 145-160页

作者： Chenbin XUE Zhiying DING xinyong shen Xian CHEN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory Nanchang 330096China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyCMAGuangzhou 510080China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China Jiangxi Institute of Land and Space Survey and Planning/Jiangxi Geomatics Center Nanchang 330000China

In this paper,a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two ***,the horizontal wind field is simultaneously recovered through minimizing a cost function defined as a radial observation term with the standard conjugate gradient method,avoiding a weighting parameter specification *** with conventional dual-Doppler wind synthesis approaches,this variational method minimizes errors caused by interpolation from radar observation to analysis grid in the iterative solution process,which is one of the main sources of ***,through the accelerated Liebmann method,the vertical velocity is further reestimated as an extra step by solving the Poisson equation with impermeable conditions imposed at the ground and near the *** Poisson equation defined by the second derivative of the vertical velocity is derived from the mass continuity *** with the method proposed by O’Brien,this method is less sensitive to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions and has better stability and ***,the method proposed in this paper is applied to Doppler radar observation of a squall line *** is shown that the retrieved vertical wind profile agrees well with the vertical profile obtained with the velocity–azimuth display(VAD)method,and the retrieved radial velocity as well as the analyzed positive and negative velocity centers and horizontal wind shear of the squall line are in accord with radar *** is a good correspondence between the divergence field of the derived wind field and the vertical ***,the horizontal and vertical circulations within and around the squall line,as well as strong updrafts,the associated downdrafts,and associated rear inflow of the bow echo,are analyzed *** is worth mentioning that the variational method in this paper can be applied to simultaneously synthesize the three-dimensional wind fiel

关键词： dual-Doppler radar three-dimensional wind a variational method vertical velocity wind synthesis

Precipitation Responses to Radiative Effects of Ice Clouds:A Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study of a Pre-Summer Torrential Precipitation Event

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第10期33卷 1137-1142页

作者： xinyong shen Wenyan HUANG Chunyan GUO Xiaocen JIANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory ofClimate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingJiangsu 210044China Changzhou Meteorological Bureau ChangzhouJiangsu 213022China Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center HohhotInner Mongolia 010051China

The precipitation responses to the radiative effects of ice clouds are investigated through analysis of five-day and hori- zontally averaged data from 2D cumulus ensemble model experiments of a pre-summer torrential precipitation event. The exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds lowered the precipitation rate through a substantial reduction in the decrease of hydrometeors when the radiative effects of water clouds were switched on, whereas it increased the precipitation rate through hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease when the radiative effects of ice clouds were turned off. The weakened hydrometeor decrease was associated with the enhanced longwave radiative cooling mainly through the decreases in the melt- ing of non-precipitating ice to non-precipitating water. The hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease corresponded to the strengthened longwave radiative cooling in the upper troposphere through the weakened collection of non-precipitating water by precipitation water.

关键词： hydrometeor change precipitation rate longwave radiative cooling local atmospheric cooling

淮河流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件的演变特征及其与气候和植被的关系

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生态学报 2024年第13期44卷 5596-5608页

作者：姚昊昕李清泉赵亮吴星麒沈新勇段春锋李畅南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院南京210044 南京信息工程大学大气环境中心教育部气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室南京210044 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室海口570203 大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室安徽省气象科学研究所合肥230031

使用淮河流域1981年至2020年的149个气象站点的气温和相对湿度数据,分析了流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件(Compound Drought and Heat Events,CDHEs)的时空演变特征,并通过趋势分析和相关分析法探讨了CDHEs与气候和植被的关系。结果表明:... 详细信息

使用淮河流域1981年至2020年的149个气象站点的气温和相对湿度数据,分析了流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件(Compound Drought and Heat Events,CDHEs)的时空演变特征,并通过趋势分析和相关分析法探讨了CDHEs与气候和植被的关系。结果表明:(1)CDHEs的发生日数在年代际尺度上呈现明显的增加趋势,并且范围扩大,频发区逐渐向淮河流域中西部移动;(2)在年际尺度上,CDHEs随时间序列呈显著的波动上升趋势,空间分布上以西北部为中心向四周递减。连续CDHEs事件呈年际变化,最大2至4天的连续事件存在波动,2019年达到高峰,并且在流域内零散或成片出现;(3)在月际尺度上,CDHEs的发生日数在6月最多,其次是5月、7月、9月和8月。淮河流域入汛前的旱情和入汛后的旱涝急转都容易导致CDHEs发生,而且随着月际变化向南移动;(4)CDHEs对水热条件和大气环流具有特别的敏感性。在850hPa反气旋和500hPa显著高压异常的控制下,高温、低湿、高蒸发和降水少的气候背景有利于淮河地区CDHEs的形成,尤其是在淮河中西部地区。因此,CDHEs的发生与气候变化密切相关;(5)CDHEs与植被生长也存在显著关系。CDHEs与GPP呈显著的负相关,而与NDVI呈显著的正相关,显著地区的土地类型以耕地和城乡、工矿、居民用地为主。GPP和NDVI的不同步可能是因为多种因素的非线性相互作用,而不仅仅是单一因素的影响。此外,对于GPP和NDVI来说,土壤含水量至关重要。总之,本文对淮河流域CDHEs的时空分布特征进行了深入研究,并探讨了其与气候和植被的关系。研究结果可以为该地区的气象灾害防御和生态环境保护提供科学依据和参考。

关键词：淮河流域极端高温干旱复合事件气候变化时空分布特征植被

On the Mechanism of a Terrain-Influenced Snow Burst Event during Midwinter in Northeast China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第5期38卷 800-816页

作者： Na LI Baofeng JIAO Lingkun RAN xinyong shen Yanbin QI Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Jilin Weather Modification Office Changchun 130062China

Short-duration snow bursts with heavy snow represent one type of hazardous weather in winter which can be easily missed by the winter weather warnings but often results in great *** this paper,the mechanism for the occurrence of such events was investigated with the aid of a localized terrain-influenced snow burst event in Northeast *** snow burst was produced by an eastward-moving cold-frontal snowband which encountered the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains and *** ascertain the role of orography on the snow burst,numerical experiments,together with a parallel sensitivity experiment removing Changbai Mountains,were performed to attempt to distinguish the contributions of cold-frontal system and orographic effects to produce the heavy *** showed that without the influence of Changbai Mountains,the release of conditional instability(CI)and inertial instability(II)within a weak frontogenetical environment was responsible for the snowband *** effects played important roles in enhancing the snowband and increasing the snowfall *** enhancement mechanism was related to the interactions of the cold-frontal snowband and the *** the one hand,orographic frontogenesis and persistent ascent,created by orographic gravity waves over the terrain,greatly enhanced the orographic *** intensification of the lifting promoted the release of CI and thus enhanced the *** the other hand,pre-existing orographic instabilities were released due to the passing of the cold-frontal snowband,which could also serve to intensify the snowband over terrain and thus increase the snowfall.

关键词： terrain-influenced snow burst snowband instability lifting

Long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer under global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第4期65卷 662-674页

作者： Jingwen YU Qingquan LI Yihui DING Jie ZHANG Qingyuan WU xinyong shen Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

In this study,the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to *** historical experiment simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)are evaluated,and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is *** results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends,which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the *** is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian *** CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor *** projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century,the water vapor content,the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will *** a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period(1991–2014),these three variables will increase by 47.99%,59.77%and 18.59%in the long term(2081–2100),*** significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Boreal summer Water vapor transport Long-term trend Projection

Trigger mechanism of a snow burst event in Northeast China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第2期14卷 13-20页

作者： Baofeng Jiao Lingkun Ran xinyong shen Yanbin Qi Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina Jilin Weather Modification Office ChangchunChina

A snow burst event characterized by brief heavy snowfall affected Northeast China and caused serious social impact on 26 January 2017,with the snowband generally aligned with a northeast–southwest-oriented cold *** reanalysis data were used to diagnose the possible trigger *** showed there were two stages:(a)an initial stage far away from the Changbai Mountains,and(b)an enhancement stage under the influence of high *** the initial stage,the coupling of low-level frontogenesis and a favorable convergence pattern caused strong upward motion,contributing to the release of *** the snowband approached the high terrain during the enhancement stage,the various instabilities were triggered by the low-level frontogenesis,terrain circulation,and strong wind shear associated with the low-level ***,a modified Q-vector divergence including generalized potential temperature was calculated to diagnose the vertical *** showed that the frontogenesis terms contributed greatly to the negative Q-vector divergence along the moist isentropes,while the pseudo-vorticity terms played a role in the regions with strong wind shear associated with the low-level jet in the warm section,suggesting both were important in stimulating the ascending *** regions with negative Q-vector divergence had a close relationship with the vertical structure of convection,indicating the potential to track the development of the snowband in the next few hours.

关键词： Snow burst Frontogenesis Q-vector