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A simplified index to assess the combined impact of tropical cyclone precipitation and wind on China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 672-681页

作者： Peiyan CHEN Hui YU Ming XU xiaotu lei Feng ZENG Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China The Joint Laboratory for Typhoon Forecasting Technique Applications between Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai 200030China Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China

Relationships between tropical cyclone(TC)precipitation,wind,and storm damage are analyzed for China based on TCs over the period from 1984 to 2013.The analysis shows that the maximum daily areal precipitation from stations with daily precipitation of ≥50 mm and the sum of wind gusts of ≥13.9 m/s can be used to estimate the main damage caused by TCs,and an index combining the precipitation and wind gust of a TC(IPWT)is defined to assess the severity of the combined impact of precipitation and wind.The correlation coefficient between IPWT and the damage index for affecting TCs is 0.80,which is higher than that for only precipitation or wind.All TCs with precipitation and wind affecting China are divided intofive categories,Category 0 to Category 4,based on IPWT,where higher categories refer to higher combined impacts of precipitation and wind.The combined impact category is closely related to damage category and it can be used to estimate the potential damage category in operational work.There are 87.7%,72.9%,69.8%,and 73.4%of cases that have the same or one category difference between damage category and combined impact category for Categories 1,2,3,and 4,respectively.IPWT and its classification can be used to assess the severity of the TC impact and of combined precipitation and wind conveniently and accurately,and the potential damage caused by TCs.The result will be a good supplementary data for TC intensity,precipitation,wind,and damage.In addition,IPWT can be used as an index to judge the reliability of damage data.Further analysis of the annual frequency of combined precipitation-wind impact categories reveals no significant increasing or decreasing trend in impact over China over the past 30 years.

关键词： tropical cyclone impact precipitation wind

卵泡液中全氟及多氟化合物的非靶向筛查及其跨血-卵屏障传递

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科学通报 2024年第6期69卷 787-796页

作者：刘晓途赵磊洪奥博庄丽丽鹿群王斌吴敏陈达暨南大学环境学院广东省环境污染与健康重点实验室广州511443 烟台毓璜顶医院生殖科烟台264000 首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院生殖医学中心北京100020 北京大学公共卫生学院生育健康研究所国家卫生健康委生育健康重点实验室北京100191 北京低碳清洁能源研究院煤炭开采水资源保护与利用国家重点实验室北京102211

全氟及多氟化合物(per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFAS)是一类受到全球关注的重要污染物,除传统PFAS外,越来越多的新型PFAS得到广泛应用,然而对其环境存在、人体暴露及健康风险缺乏足够的研究.鉴定新型PFAS并阐述其环境与健康风险... 详细信息

全氟及多氟化合物(per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFAS)是一类受到全球关注的重要污染物,除传统PFAS外,越来越多的新型PFAS得到广泛应用,然而对其环境存在、人体暴露及健康风险缺乏足够的研究.鉴定新型PFAS并阐述其环境与健康风险,成为PFAS研究的重要趋势.本研究基于高效液相色谱-高分辨率质谱技术非靶向筛查鉴定了卵泡液中的新型PFAS.通过对一级离子精确质量数、质量亏损、特征碎片离子、保留时间等信息进行定性确证,本研究在99名寻求辅助生殖技术治疗女性的卵泡液中,共筛查出2种新型氯取代全氟烷基醚磺酸(Cl-PFESAs)和7种氢取代全氟烷基羧酸(H-PFCAs),其中4:2 Cl-PFESAs和5:2 Cl-PFESA的检出率高于90%,HPFHpA、H-PFOA、H-PFNA和H-PFUdA的检出率高于50%.通过对同一人群配套的血液样本进行分析,确定了这些新型PFAS的跨血-卵屏障传递系数介于0.56~1.02,其中H-PFCAs的传递系数呈现随化合物的碳数增大而下降的趋势.本研究为进一步筛查新型未知PFAS及探索PFAS对女性生殖健康的潜在影响提供了研究基础.

关键词：全氟及多氟化合物非靶向筛查卵泡液血-卵屏障传递系数

Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot(2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and China's Mainland

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第4期31卷 747-766页

作者： Xuwei BAO Dan WU xiaotu lei leiming MA Dongliang WANG Kun ZHAO Ben Jong-Dao JOU Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University

This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from China's Mainland and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot（2009）. The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation（VDA） are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot＇s northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation（ZDA）. As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister（drier） initial field with（without） ZDA will produce a more southward（northward） track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity（strong convection） observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait.

关键词： Morakot radar assimilation rainfall simulation

A CHALLENGE OF THE EXPERIMENT ON TYPHOON INTENSITY CHANGE IN COASTAL AREA

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2017年第3期6卷 94-97页

作者： xiaotu lei WAIKIN WONG CLARENCE FONG Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Hong Kong Observatory ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat

The Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area(EXOTICCA) was proposed by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory(HKO) and endorsed by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC). The major goals and objectives of the EXOTICCA are: 1) to conduct the field campaigns on the intensity and structural characteristics of the target offshore and landfall tropical cyclones by employing integrated and novel observation techniques, and 2) to conduct demonstration research on the utilization of the synergized field observation data with the aim of deepening the understanding of the mechanism of structure and intensity changes, to improve the relevant capability of operational analysis, numerical weather prediction(NWP) models forecast, reliable storm surge and flooding and associated risk assessment. The Organizational structure and implementation schedule etc. are also introduced in this paper.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity experiment field campaign numerical weather prediction(NWP)

INTRODUCTION AND APPILICATION OF A NEW COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT INDEX FOR DAMAGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第3期2卷 176-183页

作者： Peiyan Chen xiaotu lei Ming Ying Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina

Using principal component analysis,a new comprehensive assessment index for damage caused by tropical cyclones in China's Mainland is developed based on data from 1984 to 2008.it is a weighted average of four kinds of damage data:including the deaths and missing,affected crop area,destroyed houses,and rate of direct economic loss.The weighting coefficients are set by principal component analysis.Two indices are derived,which differ in the importance of the deaths and missing in severity assessment according to the sign of the second principal component of damage data.Trends in the damage caused by individual tropical cyclones and in the annual frequencies of the various levels of severity of damage caused by tropical cyclones are analyzed.no clear trend in damage from individual tropical cyclones is found.The annual frequency of tropical cyclones causing heavy and catastrophic damage shows a clear decrease from 1984 to 2008 with no trend in the total number of damaging tropical cyclones.

关键词： tropical cyclone damage assessment principal component analysis

OVERVIEW ON THE PROGRESS OF WORKING GROUP ON METEOROLOGY OF ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE IN THE RECENT 10 YEARS

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第2期8卷 90-100页

作者： xiaotu lei CLARENCE FONG VICENTE B MALANO CHE GAYAH ISMAIL Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina200030 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat MacaoChina Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationManilaPhilippines Malaysian Meteorological Department Kuala LumpurMalaysia

This paper reviews the major achievements of the Working Group on Meteorology(WGM) of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since its establishment in 2004, especially in tropical cyclone observational research and scientific experiments, tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting technologies, seasonal prediction and climate change assessment for the past decade. The progress illustrates the great value of the Committee and WGM in monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones in the region and the improvement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities.

关键词： tropical cyclone ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Working Group on Meteorology 50th Anniversary

A METHODOLOGICAL STUDY ON AMH COPULA-BASED JOINT EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES AND APPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSING TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS AND DISASTER RISKS(PART Ⅰ)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第1期3卷 53-62页

作者： QIUZHEN YANG MING XU xiaotu lei XIAO ZHOU XIAOQIN LU Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration

A disaster induced by a tropical cyclone(TC)is a complex non-linear process,involving interactions of multiple factors.Assuming that the resilience to TC disasters remains basically unchanged,the disaster-causing risk is usually consistent with intensities of the TC-induced rainstorms and wind.When an area is hit by a low probability TC,the rainstorm and wind intensities are higher,and the likelihood for causing a disaster is greater.Therefore,criteria for the impact of a TC and disaster risk assessments can be established based on the probable intensities of the TC-associated rainstorms and wind.In this study,an AMH Copula-based function is introduced to investigate the joint risk probabilities of TC rainstorms and wind.In line with the equivalence principle of the distribution of a stochastic atmospheric phenomenon in both time and space,and taking the impact on Shanghai of TC Haikui as an example,the Copula-based joint probability distribution model is developed to assess the impacts of TC rainstorms and wind,based on the marginal distributions of the maximum daily rainfall and extreme gust velocity.The joint exceedance probabilities of TC rainstorms and wind derived from the model can be used as criteria to measure the risk levels.As our findings show,this approach captures the TC risks well,especially in high-risk areas.The aim of the study is to provide a practically useful concept for making more accurate assessments of the risk level of an extreme weather event using observational data,and objective criteria for risk avoidance and transfer.

关键词： TC impact joint distribution joint exceedance probability risk assessment spatial distribution

PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2015

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2016年第3期5卷 47-57页

作者： Guomin Chen xiaotu lei Xiping ZHANG Peiyan CHEN Hui YU Rijin WAN Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration

The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo's "best-track" dataset. The results showed that position errors for each official agency were under 80 km, 130 km, 180 km, 260 km and 370 km at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hr lead time. Stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were made at every lead times and have been made by global models from 2010 to 2015, especially for long lead time. The results of the Track Forecast Integral Deviation(TFID) show a clearly decreasing trend for most global models, indicating that the TC forecast tracks became increasingly similar to the observations. In 2015, the intensity forecast skill scores for both global and regional models were almost negative. However, the skill of EPSs' intensity forecasting has made significant progress in the past year.

关键词： tropical cyclone track intensity forecast verification skill scores

Recent advancements in aircraft and in situ observations of tropical cyclones

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 81-99页

作者： Heather M.Holbach Olivier Bousquet Lisa Bucci Paul Chang Joe Cione Sarah Ditchek Jim Doyle Jean-Philippe Duvel Jack Elston Gustavo Goni Kai Kwong Hon Kosuke Ito Zorana Jelenak xiaotu lei Rick Lumpkin Clive R.McMahon Christopher Reason Elizabeth Sanabia Lynn Keith Shay Jason A.Sippel Andrey Sushko Jie Tang Kazuhisa Tsuboki Hiroyuki Yamada Jonathan Zawislak Jun A.Zhang Florida State University Northern Gulf InstituteTallahasseeUSA NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory MiamiUSA Laboratoire de L’Atmosphere et des Cyclones Sainte ClotildeFrance Institute for Coastal and Marine Research Nelson Mandela UniversityGqeberhaSouth Africa NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center MiamiUSA NOAA/National Environmental Satellite Data and Information ServiceCollege ParkUSA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies University of MiamiMiamiFLUSA Naval Research Laboratory MontereyUSA Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique ParisFrance Black Swift Technologies BoulderUSA Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto UniversityGokashoJapan University of the Ryukyus OkinawaJapan University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Shanghai Meteorological Service ShanghaiChina Sydney Institute of Marine Science MosmanAustralia University of Cape Town RondeboschSouth Africa United States Naval Academy AnnapolisUSA University of Miami MiamiUSA Windborne Systems Palo AltoUSA Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAShanghaiChina Nagoya University NagoyaJapan Yokohama National University YokohamaJapan NOAA/OMAO/Aircraft Operations Center LakelandUSA1

Observations of tropical cyclones(TC)from aircraft and in situ platforms provide critical and unique information for analyzing and forecasting TC intensity,structure,track,and their associated hazards.This report,prepared for the tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10),discusses the data collected around the world in TCs over the past four years since the IWTC-9,improvements to observing techniques,new instruments designed to achieve sustained and targeted atmospheric and oceanic observations,and select research results related to these observations.In the Atlantic and Eastern and Central Pacific basins,changes to operational aircraft reconnaissance are discussed along with several of the research field campaigns that have taken place recently.The changes in the use and impact of these aircraft observations in numerical weather prediction models are also provided along with updates on some of the experimental aircraft instrumentation.Highlights from three field campaigns in the Western Pacific basin are also discussed.Examples of in-situ data collected within recent TCs such as Hurricane Ian(2022),also demonstrate that new,emerging technologies and observation strategies reviewed in this report,definitely have the potential to further improve ocean-atmosphere coupled intensity forecasts.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Aircraft observations In situ observations IWTC-10