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Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第10期59卷 2009-2021页

作者： ZHAN RuiFen DING YiHui WU LiGuang lei xiaotu Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China National Climate Center and Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disastersand Pacific Typhoon Research CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.

关键词： Western North Pacific Tropical cyclone Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau ENSO Interdecadal shift

A simplified index to assess the combined impact of tropical cyclone precipitation and wind on China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 672-681页

作者： Peiyan CHEN Hui YU Ming XU xiaotu lei Feng ZENG Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China The Joint Laboratory for Typhoon Forecasting Technique Applications between Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai 200030China Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China

Relationships between tropical cyclone(TC)precipitation,wind,and storm damage are analyzed for China based on TCs over the period from 1984 to *** analysis shows that the maximum daily areal precipitation from stations with daily precipitation of ≥50 mm and the sum of wind gusts of ≥13.9 m/s can be used to estimate the main damage caused by TCs,and an index combining the precipitation and wind gust of a TC(IPWT)is defined to assess the severity of the combined impact of precipitation and *** correlation coefficient between IPWT and the damage index for affecting TCs is 0.80,which is higher than that for only precipitation or *** TCs with precipitation and wind affecting China are divided intofive categories,Category 0 to Category 4,based on IPWT,where higher categories refer to higher combined impacts of precipitation and *** combined impact category is closely related to damage category and it can be used to estimate the potential damage category in operational *** are 87.7%,72.9%,69.8%,and 73.4%of cases that have the same or one category difference between damage category and combined impact category for Categories 1,2,3,and 4,*** and its classification can be used to assess the severity of the TC impact and of combined precipitation and wind conveniently and accurately,and the potential damage caused by *** result will be a good supplementary data for TC intensity,precipitation,wind,and *** addition,IPWT can be used as an index to judge the reliability of damage *** analysis of the annual frequency of combined precipitation-wind impact categories reveals no significant increasing or decreasing trend in impact over China over the past 30 years.

关键词： tropical cyclone impact precipitation wind

Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot(2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and China's Mainland

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第4期31卷 747-766页

作者： Xuwei BAO Dan WU xiaotu lei leiming MA Dongliang WANG Kun ZHAO Ben Jong-Dao JOU Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University

This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from China's Mainland and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot（2009）. The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation（VDA） are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot＇s northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation（ZDA）. As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister（drier） initial field with（without） ZDA will produce a more southward（northward） track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity（strong convection） observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait.

关键词： Morakot radar assimilation rainfall simulation

SUMMARY OF RETIRED TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第1期1卷 19-25页

作者： lei xiaotu ZHOU XIAO Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration

Names have been given to tropical cyclones which raging through the western North Pacific Ocean since ***,considering the disastrous impact or some extreme uniqueness quite a few typhoons have their names retired from the *** study conducts preliminary analysis and summarizes the frequency,impact and also explains why they were *** shows that a total of 31 typhoons(in the western North Pacific Ocean)have been removed from the list from 1947 on,most of which retired after 2000 amounting to 20 as against 11 before ***,these retired typhoons have made 16843 people killed or missing and caused a heavy property loss of$45.7 billion,averaging 543 fatalities and property loss of$1.69 billion each(capping at 8000 and$10 billion respectively).Most typhoons were retired due to huge personnel and property ***,some others were removed for their unique feature such as developed near equator,extremely long typhoon tracks,***,there were some retired due to neither of the above *** this connection,the study also discusses the standard of retiring typhoons.

关键词： typhoons disastrous impact the standard of retiring typhoons

WMO TYPHOON LANDFALL FORECAST DEMONSTRATION PROJECT(WMO-TLFDP)——CONCEPT AND PROGRESSES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第1期1卷 66-71页

作者： XU TANG lei xiaotu YU HUI Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo and to demonstrate the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques in the world, the “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(WMO-TLFDP)” began in May 2010 and will end in December 2012. It is a component of the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Project. Significant progresses have been made. First, the WMO-TLFDP Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was held successfully in Shanghai, China during 24-28 May, 2010. Second. a total of 13 typhoon forecast product providers have participated in the project by providing real-time forecast products. Third, typhoon track, intensity and rainfall forecasts are verified in both real time and post season manners. Fourth, products of the project are disseminated through the project’s website(http://***) and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, all the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by the Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China, which are available to research, training and capacity-building activities. It is demonstrated that current operational models are valuable in providing guidance to the forecast of not only track, but also intensity and heavy rainfall of tropical cyclones. Consensus techniques and ensemble prediction systems are promising in assisting the forecasters and decision makers to provide better tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. The WMO-TLFDP has supported effectively the forecasters and typhoon-related weather services during the World EXPO 2010, and it will continue to promote the implementation of the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques among the members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which ultimately will be of benefit to other WMO Members as w

关键词： World Expo Typhoon Typhoon Warning Center

中国台风联防与科研协作及其对中国台风学科发展的作用综述

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气象学报 2021年第3期79卷 531-540页

作者：雷小途上海市气象局上海200030 中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030

中国是全球台风灾害最严重的国家之一,也是最早记录台风灾害的国家。加强对台风活动规律的研究,进而研发台风监测预报技术,是提高防台减灾能力的必由之路。中国有组织的台风联防和科研大协作分别始于20世纪50年代及70年代,先后建立了台... 详细信息

中国是全球台风灾害最严重的国家之一,也是最早记录台风灾害的国家。加强对台风活动规律的研究,进而研发台风监测预报技术,是提高防台减灾能力的必由之路。中国有组织的台风联防和科研大协作分别始于20世纪50年代及70年代,先后建立了台风会商和科学讨论会等较完备的台风联防及科研协作机制,并沿用至今,取得了丰硕的成果,促进了中国的台风学科发展,奠定了全国台风灾害联防体系。该文对此进行了简要的回顾和概述,旨在促进中国特色台风联防及科研协作机制的继承和发展。

关键词：台风科研协作联防科学讨论会

A CHALLENGE OF THE EXPERIMENT ON TYPHOON INTENSITY CHANGE IN COASTAL AREA

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2017年第3期6卷 94-97页

作者： xiaotu lei WAIKIN WONG CLARENCE FONG Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Hong Kong Observatory ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat

The Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area(EXOTICCA) was proposed by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory(HKO) and endorsed by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC). The major goals and objectives of the EXOTICCA are: 1) to conduct the field campaigns on the intensity and structural characteristics of the target offshore and landfall tropical cyclones by employing integrated and novel observation techniques, and 2) to conduct demonstration research on the utilization of the synergized field observation data with the aim of deepening the understanding of the mechanism of structure and intensity changes, to improve the relevant capability of operational analysis, numerical weather prediction(NWP) models forecast, reliable storm surge and flooding and associated risk assessment. The Organizational structure and implementation schedule etc. are also introduced in this paper.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity experiment field campaign numerical weather prediction(NWP)

INTRODUCTION AND APPILICATION OF A NEW COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT INDEX FOR DAMAGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第3期2卷 176-183页

作者： Peiyan Chen xiaotu lei Ming Ying Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina

Using principal component analysis,a new comprehensive assessment index for damage caused by tropical cyclones in China's Mainland is developed based on data from 1984 to *** is a weighted average of four kinds of damage data:including the deaths and missing,affected crop area,destroyed houses,and rate of direct economic *** weighting coefficients are set by principal component *** indices are derived,which differ in the importance of the deaths and missing in severity assessment according to the sign of the second principal component of damage *** in the damage caused by individual tropical cyclones and in the annual frequencies of the various levels of severity of damage caused by tropical cyclones are *** clear trend in damage from individual tropical cyclones is *** annual frequency of tropical cyclones causing heavy and catastrophic damage shows a clear decrease from 1984 to 2008 with no trend in the total number of damaging tropical cyclones.

关键词： tropical cyclone damage assessment principal component analysis

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无人飞机在台风探测中的应用进展

地球科学进展 2015年第2期30卷 276-283页

作者：雷小途中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030

与有人飞机的台风探测不同,无人飞机(也称无人机)因其相对低的成本且无人员伤亡风险等优势,自1997年一款名为"气象侦察兵(Aerosonde)"投入台风探测试验以来,受到国际社会的广泛关注。随着无人机技术的迅猛发展,无人机的飞行高度、有效... 详细信息

与有人飞机的台风探测不同,无人飞机(也称无人机)因其相对低的成本且无人员伤亡风险等优势,自1997年一款名为"气象侦察兵(Aerosonde)"投入台风探测试验以来,受到国际社会的广泛关注。随着无人机技术的迅猛发展,无人机的飞行高度、有效荷载和续航能力等性能不断提高,更多的台风特种观测仪器被搭载,特别是2010年NASA使用高空长航时无人机"全球鹰(Global Hawk)"对大西洋5个飓风的飞行探测取得成功后,基于无人机平台建立高空下投探空和近地/水面飞行观测相结合的台风精细结构探测体系渐成趋势。目前我国尚未建立飞机探测台风的业务,严重制约了我国台风定位定强和台风数值预报精度的进一步提高。鉴于此,简要概述了境内外无人机在台风探测中的实践和发展趋势,旨在推进我国无人机探测台风的实践及其业务化体系的建设。

关键词：无人飞机台风结构探测