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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 639-654页

作者： Ming YING xiaoqin lu Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt *** comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track *** no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP ***,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track *** wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity homogeneity best track aircraft reconnaissance

A new technique for automatically locating the center of tropical cyclones with multi-band cloud imagery

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 836-847页

作者： xiaoqin lu Hui YU Xiaoming YANG Xiaofeng LI Jie TANG Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Ocean Department Shanghai Ocean UniversityShanghai 201306China CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China

A spiral cloud belt matching(SCBeM)technique is proposed for automatically locating the tropical cyclone(TC)center position on the basis of multi-band geo-satellite *** technique comprises four steps:fusion of multi-band geo-satellite images,extraction of TC cloud systems,construction of a spiral cloud belt template(CBT),and template matching to locate the TC *** testing of the proposed SCBeM technique on 97 TCs over the western North Pacific during 2012-2015,the median error(ME)was 50 *** independent test of another 29 TCs in 2016 resulted in a ME of 54 *** SCBeM performs better for TCs with intensity above“typhoon”level than it does for weaker systems,and is not suitable for use on high-latitude or landfall TCs if their cloud band formations have been destroyed by westerlies or by *** proposed SCBeM technique provides an additional solution for automatically and objectively locating the TC center and has the potential to be applied conveniently in an operational *** between the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval(ARCHER)and SCBeM methods using events from 2014 to 2016 reveal that ARCHER has better location ***,when IR imagery alone is used,the ME of SCBeM is 54 km,and in the case of low latitudes and low vertical wind shear the ME is 45-47 km,which approaches that of ARCHER(49 km).Thus,the SCBeM method is simple,has good time resolution,performs well and is a better choice for those TC operational agencies in the case that the microwave images,ASCAT,or other observations are unavailable.

关键词： tropical cyclone center location geostationary satellite matching technique

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 690-699页

作者： xiaoqin lu Hui YU Ming YING Bingke ZHAO Shuai ZHANG Limin LIN Lina BAI Rijin WAN Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.

关键词： tropical cyclone multi-source database western North Pacific

Consistency correction of echo intensity data for multiple radar systems and its application in quantitative estimation of typhoon precipitation

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第1期16卷 99-108页

作者： Shuai ZHANG Jing HAN Bingke ZHAO Zhigang CHU Jie TANG Limin LIN xiaoqin lu Jiaming YAN Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030Chin Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation(China Meteorological Administration)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Hainan Institute of Meteorological Sciences Haikou 570203China Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province Haikou 570203China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Fuzhou 350001China Fujian Key Laboratory of Granular Computing and Application Minnan Normal UniversityZhangzhou 363000China

Calibration error is one of the primary sources of bias in echo intensity measurements by ground-based radar *** errors cause data discontinuity between adjacent radars and reduce the effectiveness of the radar *** Global Precipitation Measurement Kuband Precipitation Radar(GPM KuPR)has been shown to provide stable long-term *** this study,GPM KuPR observations were converted to S-band approximations,which were then matched spatially and temporally with ground-based radar *** measurements of stratiform precipitation below the melting layer collected by the KuPR during Typhoon Ampil were compared with those of multiple radar systems in the Yangtze River Delta to determine the deviations in the echo intensity between the KuPR and the ground-based radar *** echo intensity data collected by the ground-based radar systems was corrected using the KuPR observations as reference,and the correction results were verified by comparing them with rain gauge *** was found that after the correction,the consistency of the echo intensity measurements of the multiple radar systems improved significantly,and the precipitation estimates based on the revised ground-based radar observations were closer to the rain gauge measurements.

关键词： calibration error ground-based radar reflectivity correction precipitation estimates

AN OBJECTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATION MODEL BASED ON DIGITAL IR SATELLITE IMAGES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第4期2卷 233-241页

作者： xiaoqin lu HUI YU Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration

An objective tropical cyclone(TC) intensity estimation model is proposed based on the statistical relationship between TC intensity and its inner-core convection,plus the persistence of TC *** the model,the innercore convection is described by several parameters retrieved from digital infrared(IR) satellite images,including the number of convective cores(Num),their distance to the TC center,and their blackbody temperature(TBB),among *** persistence of TC intensity is embodied by the TC intensity six hours previous(V6h).The model was set up by the stepwise regression technique using a five-year dataset(2006-2010) and was tested using an independent dataset covering 2011-2012,with V6h from the best-track *** factors of the model included V6h,Num,Lat(TC center latitude),Lon(TC center longitude),DISmin(minimum distance between convective cores and TC center),and TBBdif(difference between the maximum and minimum TBB value of convective cores).Results showed that,for independent samples during 2011-2012,the MAE(mean absolute error) and RMSE(root-mean-square error) of Vmax estimation were 1.8 m s-1 and 2.4 m s-1,*** order to make the model totally independent from the best-track dataset,the model estimation from six hours previous was used as the V6h for a second independent test covering *** results showed that the model had an MAE and RMSE of 5.4 m s-1 and 7.3 m s-1,*** errors were found for strong TCs(Severe Typhoon or Super Typhoon).The error statistics of the proposed model are comparable to published statistics on the widely used Dvorak technique or its objective versions,implying its potential to be used as an alternative tool for TC intensity estimation in either real-time operation or post-season best-track analyses.

关键词： IR images convective core tropical cyclone intensity estimation

Verification of tropical cyclones(TC)wind structure forecasts from global NWP models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2022年第2期11卷 88-102页

作者： xiaoqin lu Wai Kin Wong Kin Chung Au-Yeung Chun Wing Choy Hui Yu Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina

Forecasting wind structure of tropical cyclone(TC)is vital in assessment of impact due to high winds using Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)*** usual verification technique on TC wind structure forecasts are based on grid-to-grid comparisons between forecast field and the actual ***,precision of traditional verification measures is easily affected by small scale errors and thus cannot well discriminate the accuracy or effectiveness of NWP model *** this study,the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE),which has been widely adopted in verifying precipitation fields,is utilized in TC’s wind field verification for the first *** TC wind field forecast of deterministic NWP model and Ensemble Prediction System(EPS)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2020 were evaluated.A MODE score of 0.5 is used as a threshold value to represent a skillful(or good)*** is found that the R34(radius of 34 knots)wind field structure forecasts within 72 h are good regardless of DET or *** performance of R50 and R64 is slightly worse but the R50 forecasts within 48 h remain good,with MODE exceeded *** R64forecast within 48 h are worth for reference as well with MODE of around *** study states that the TC wind field structure forecast by ECMWF is skillful for TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.

关键词： Verification Tropical cyclones wind structure forecasts Numerical weather prediction models Ensemble prediction system

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明中后期两浙盐场赋役制度的变革

河南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版） 2017年第2期44卷 71-76页

作者：吕小琴河南师范大学历史文化学院河南新乡453007

明中后期,两浙盐场赋役制度发生了重大变革。正统年间,水乡灶课率先由征收实物盐改为征收折色银,这一做法后来逐渐推广,用于滨海灶课的征收。自成化末年起,半数水乡灶课银由水乡荡价银抵补,另一半的水乡灶课银由州县于秋粮带征。万历末... 详细信息

明中后期,两浙盐场赋役制度发生了重大变革。正统年间,水乡灶课率先由征收实物盐改为征收折色银,这一做法后来逐渐推广,用于滨海灶课的征收。自成化末年起,半数水乡灶课银由水乡荡价银抵补,另一半的水乡灶课银由州县于秋粮带征。万历末年,部分灶课由按丁或户征收改为按荡征收,总催之役编佥的依据也随之发生了从按丁到照荡的转变。从表面上看,这些改革的动力源自州县、盐场、盐场豪强、灶户等群体各式各样的利益博弈,但其中隐藏有技术难以适应财政税收需求的矛盾,也折射出明代赋役制度整体都具有的技术与需求之间不协调的一般性矛盾。

关键词：明中后期两浙盐场赋役制度变革

A METHODOLOGICAL STUDY ON AMH COPULA-BASED JOINT EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES AND APPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSING TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS AND DISASTER RISKS(PART Ⅰ)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第1期3卷 53-62页

作者： QIUZHEN YANG MING XU XIAOTU LEI XIAO ZHOU xiaoqin lu Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration

A disaster induced by a tropical cyclone(TC)is a complex non-linear process,involving interactions of multiple *** that the resilience to TC disasters remains basically unchanged,the disaster-causing risk is usually consistent with intensities of the TC-induced rainstorms and *** an area is hit by a low probability TC,the rainstorm and wind intensities are higher,and the likelihood for causing a disaster is ***,criteria for the impact of a TC and disaster risk assessments can be established based on the probable intensities of the TC-associated rainstorms and *** this study,an AMH Copula-based function is introduced to investigate the joint risk probabilities of TC rainstorms and *** line with the equivalence principle of the distribution of a stochastic atmospheric phenomenon in both time and space,and taking the impact on Shanghai of TC Haikui as an example,the Copula-based joint probability distribution model is developed to assess the impacts of TC rainstorms and wind,based on the marginal distributions of the maximum daily rainfall and extreme gust *** joint exceedance probabilities of TC rainstorms and wind derived from the model can be used as criteria to measure the risk *** our findings show,this approach captures the TC risks well,especially in high-risk *** aim of the study is to provide a practically useful concept for making more accurate assessments of the risk level of an extreme weather event using observational data,and objective criteria for risk avoidance and transfer.

关键词： TC impact joint distribution joint exceedance probability risk assessment spatial distribution

Strain Softening and Hardening Behavior in AZ61 Magnesium Alloy

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Journal of Materials Science & Technology 2004年第6期20卷 691-693页

作者： Haitao ZHOU, Liufa LIU, Qudong WANG, Da lu, xiaoqin ZENG and Wenjiang DINGNational Engineering Research Center of Light Alloys Net Forming, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China Ctr. of Light Alloys Net Forming Sch. of Mat. Sci. and Eng. Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. Shanghai 200030 China

The deformation behavior of AZ61 Mg alloy during hot deformation has been investigated in wide temperature and strain rate range by a Gleeble simulator. Specimens are deformed in compression in the temperature range of 523-673 K and at strain rates of 0.001-1 s-1. It is found that the flow curves exhibit a peak and then decrease towards steady-state of classical DRX, which decrease with rising temperature and decreasing strain rate. The deformation behavior of the specimens can be attributed to the occurrence of strain hardening and softening. As stress decreases, the strain hardening rate declines at a fast rate when temperature rises or strain rate decreases. The shapes of θ-σ curves indicate some important features such as subgrain formation, the criticai stress, the peak stress and steady stress. The onset of DRX can be determined by the point of inflection on θ-σ or Inθ-σ curves.

关键词： AZ61 Mg alloy Recrystallization Strain hardening and softening

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用地理信息系统改进热带气旋的客观定位精度

应用气象学报 2005年第6期16卷 841-848,T0004页

作者：鲁小琴雷小途上海台风研究所上海200030

基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,简称GIS)技术,初步建立了一个能集成多种数据资料和多种算法的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)客观定位系统。其中不同卫星及同一卫星不同波段资料(如Quikscat洋面风场、云顶亮温等... 详细信息

基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,简称GIS)技术,初步建立了一个能集成多种数据资料和多种算法的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)客观定位系统。其中不同卫星及同一卫星不同波段资料(如Quikscat洋面风场、云顶亮温等)的矢量及栅格信息的叠加和分析功能,有助于从多个侧面揭示TC的结构特征;而多种定位方法(如云图形态分析法、云顶亮温极值法、洋面风场涡度极值法、数学形态学算法等)的客观化及其综合运用的实现,不仅可以减小TC定位过程中的随机(人为)误差,而且能提高TC定位工作的效率。利用该系统对编号为0203,0209,0212,0417和0419的5个TC进行的定位试验结果表明:利用该系统进行TC定位的精度与目前业务定位精度相当,具有良好业务应用前景。

关键词：热带气旋客观定位精度地理信息系统 GIS系统 TC定位