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Improvement of the Surface Pressure Operator in GRAPES and Its Application in Precipitation Forecasting in South China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 354-366页

作者： HUANG Yanyan xue jishan WAN Qilin CHEN Zitong DING Weiyu ZHANG Chengzhong Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology Guangzhou 510080 ~tate Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081

In this study we investigated the problems involved in assimilating surface pressure in the current global and regional assimilation and prediction system, GRAPES. A new scheme of assimilating surface pressure was proposed, including a new interpolation scheme and a refreshed background covariance. The new scheme takes account of the differences between station elevation and model topography, and it especially deals with stations located at elevations below that of the first model level. Contrast experiments were conducted using both the original and the new assimilation schemes. The influence of the new interpolation scheme and the updated background covariance were investigated. Our results show that the new interpolation scheme utilized more observations and improved the quality of the mass analysis. The background covariance was refreshed using statistics resulting from the technique proposed by Parrish and Derber in 1992. Experiments show that the updated vertical covariance may have a positive influence on the analysis at higher levels of the atmosphere when assimilating surface pressure. This influence may be more significant if the quality of the background field at high levels is poor. A series of assimilation experiments were performed to test the validity of the new scheme. The corresponding simulation experiments were conducted using the analysis of both schemes as initial conditions. The results indicated that the new scheme leads to better forecasting of sea level pressure and precipitation in South China, especially the forecast of moderate and heavv rain.

关键词： GRAPES system surface pressure assimilation background covariance numerical simulation

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Radar Data Assimilation of the GRAPES Model and Experimental Results in a Typhoon Case

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第2期29卷 344-358页

作者： LIU Hongya xue jishan GU Jianfeng XU Haiming Shanghai Meteorological Center Shanghai200030China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China Chongqing Meteorological Bureau Chongqing401147China Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nanjing210044China

Constructing βmesoscale weather systems in initial fields remains a challenging problem in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction （NWP） model. Without vertical velocity matching the βmesoscale weather system, convection activities would be suppressed by downdraft and cooling caused by precipitating hydrom eteors. In this study, a method, basing on the threedimensional variational （3DVAR） assimilation technique, was developed to obtain reasonable structures of βmesoscale weather systems by assimilating radar data in a nextgeneration NWP system named GRAPES （the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） of China. Singlepoint testing indicated that assimilating radial wind significantly improved the horizontal wind but had little effect on the vertical velocity, while assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity （taking Richardson’s equation as the observational operator） can greatly improve the vertical motion. Ex periments on a typhoon show that assimilation of the radial wind data can greatly improve the prediction of the typhoon track, and can ameliorate precipitation to some extent. Assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity and rainwater mixing ratio, and adjusting water vapor and cloud water mixing ratio in the initial fields simultaneously, can significantly improve the tropical cyclone rainfall forecast but has little effect on typhoon path. Joint assimilating these three kinds of radar data gets the best results. Taking into account the scale of different weather systems and representation of observational data, data quality control, error setting of background field and observation data are still requiring further indepth study.

关键词： 3DVAR mesoscale data assimilation vertical velocity retrieval Richardson’s equation

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Scientific design and preliminary results of three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第22期53卷 3446-3457页

作者： xue jishan ZHUANG ShiYu ZHU GuoFu ZHANG Hua LIU ZhiQuan LIU Yan ZHUANG ZhaoRong State Key Laboratory for Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System (GRAPES) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) are presented in this paper. This is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) assimilation system set up on global and regional grid meshes favorable for direct assimilation of the space-based remote sensing data and matching the frame work of the prediction model GRAPES. The state variables are assumed to decompose balanced and unbalanced components. By introducing a simple transformation from the state variables to the control variables with a recursive or spectral filter, the convergence rate of iteration for minimization of the cost function in 3DVar is greatly accelerated. The definition of dynamical balance depends on the characteristic scale of the circulation considered. The ratio of the balanced to the unbalanced parts is controlled by the prescribed statistics of background errors. Idealized trials produce the same results as the analytic solution. The results of real data case studies show the capability of the system to improve analysis compared to the traditional schemes. Finally, further development of the system is discussed.

关键词：数值天气预报气象学天气预测气象分析

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Direct assimilation of satellite radiance data in GRAPES variational assimilation system

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第22期53卷 3465-3469页

作者： ZHU GuoFu xue jishan ZHANG Hua LIU ZhiQuan ZHUANG ShiYu HUANG LiPing DONG PeiMing State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather Center for Numerical Prediction Research Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China

Variational method is capable of dealing with observations that have a complicated nonlinear relation with model variables representative of the atmospheric state, and so make it possible to directly assimilate such measured variables as satellite radiance, which have a nonlinear relation with the model variables. Assimilation of any type of observations requires a corresponding observation operator, which establishes a specific mapping from the space of the model state to the space of observation. This paper presents in detail how the direct assimilation of real satellite radiance data is implemented in the GRAPES-3DVar analysis system. It focuses on all the components of the observation operator for direct assimilation of real satellite radiance data, including a spatial interpolation operator that transforms variables from model grid points to observation locations, a physical transformation from model variables to observed elements with different choices of model variables, and a data quality control. Assimilation experiments, using satellite radiances such as NOAA17 AMSU-A and AMSU-B (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), are carried out with two different schemes. The results from these experiments can be physically understood and clearly reflect a rational effect of direct assimilation of satellite radiance data in GRAPES-3DVar analysis system.

关键词：数值天气预报天气预测气象分析气候变化

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New generation of multi-scale NWP system (GRAPES):general scientific design

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第22期53卷 3433-3445页

作者： CHEN DeHui xue jishan YANG xueSheng ZHANG HongLiang SHEN xueShun HU JiangLin WANG Yu JI LiRen CHEN JiaBin State Key Laboratory of Server Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100089 China

A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES (a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) was set up in China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This paper focuses on the scientific design and preliminary results of the numerical prediction model in GRAPES, including basic idea and strategy of the general scientific design, multi-scale dynamic core, physical package configuration, architecture and parallelization of the codes. A series of numerical experiments using the real data with horizontal resolutions from 10 to 280 km and idealized experiments with very high resolution up to 100 m are conducted, giving encouraging results supporting the multi-scale application of GRAPES. The results of operational implementation of GRAPES model in some NWP centers are also presented with stress at evaluations of the capability to predict the main features of precipitation in China. Finally the issues to be dealt with for further development are discussed.

关键词：数值天气预报气象学天气预测 GRAPES

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The program structure designing and optimizing tests of GRAPES physics

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第22期53卷 3470-3476页

作者： XU GuoQiang CHEN DeHui xue jishan SUN Jian SHEN xueShun SHEN YuanFang HUANG LiPing WU XiangJun ZHANG HongLiang WANG ShiYu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Meteorological Centre Beijing 100081

According to the modularization and standardization of program structure in Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), the plug-compatible and transplantable regional meso-scale and global middle-range physics software package is established. The package's component integrality is comparative with the other advanced models physics. A three-level structure of connecting GRAPES physics and dynamic frame has been constructed. The friendly interface is designed for users to plug in their own physics packages. Phenomenon of grid-point storm rainfall in numerical prediction is analyzed with the numerical tests. The scheme of air vertical velocity calculation is improved. Optimizing tests of physics schemes are performed with the correlative parameters adjusting. The results show that the false grid-point storm rainfall is removed by precipitation scheme improving. Then the score of precipitation forecast is enhanced.

关键词：数值天气预报天气预测气象分析暴雨

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新世纪初我国数值天气预报的科技创新研究

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应用气象学报 2006年第5期17卷 602-610页

作者：薛纪善中国气象科学研究院北京100081

概要介绍最近5年在国家科技攻关项目“中国气象数值预报系统科技创新研究”框架内所取得的主要成果,重点是卫星等遥感资料在变分同化中的应用,高分辨非静力数值预报模式的发展,全球资料同化与中期数值天气预报系统的发展,数值天气预报... 详细信息

概要介绍最近5年在国家科技攻关项目“中国气象数值预报系统科技创新研究”框架内所取得的主要成果,重点是卫星等遥感资料在变分同化中的应用,高分辨非静力数值预报模式的发展,全球资料同化与中期数值天气预报系统的发展,数值天气预报系统的模块化与并行计算,数值天气预报新技术的研究等,并扼要介绍我国新一代数值天气预报系统的业务应用试验。最后,对我国数值天气预报的进一步发展做了讨论。

关键词：数值天气预报科技创新 GRAPES

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气象卫星资料同化的科学问题与前景

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气象学报 2009年第6期67卷 903-911页

作者：薛纪善中国气象科学研究院灾害性天气国家重点实验室

从数值天气预报资料同化的角度,分析了气象卫星观测与常规气象观测的不同特点形成了卫星资料同化的特殊科学问题。由于各类星载遥感仪器所观测到的是一定波长的电磁辐射,不能像传统的直接观测资料一样被预报模式直接应用。又由于卫星观... 详细信息

从数值天气预报资料同化的角度,分析了气象卫星观测与常规气象观测的不同特点形成了卫星资料同化的特殊科学问题。由于各类星载遥感仪器所观测到的是一定波长的电磁辐射,不能像传统的直接观测资料一样被预报模式直接应用。又由于卫星观测对象是整个大气层,而不是特定高度的大气,因此确定卫星观测影响的高度和它的潜在垂直分辨率成为一个关键问题。卫星观测还可能存在着系统性的偏差,这与直接观测的误差互相独立也有很大区别。资料同化通常建立在模式预报(即背景信息)与观测量的比较的基础上,为了实现同化,需要将模式的基本大气变量转换成星载仪器所获得的特定波长的电磁波特征量,或者将观测到的电磁辐射特征量反算成大气的特征量。前者需要引入复杂的观测算子,后者则将复杂的反演过程交给了前处理阶段。这就形成了直接与间接同化卫星资料的两种不同策略,策略的选择取决于同化系统处理复杂观测资料的能力,对同化效果有决定性的影响。逐个分析了目前用于数值预报的5种卫星观测资料,即星载大气垂直探测器资料、大气运动矢量资料、散射仪海面风资料、卫星观测的云与降水信息资料与GPS掩星观测资料的同化的进展与有待解决的主要问题,概述了中国近年在大气垂直探测器等卫星资料同化中的研究进展及其业务应用的效果,并提出了今后需要予以特别关注的研究方向。

关键词：气象卫星资料同化数值预报

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Great Advancement in Developing New Generation NWP Model System in China

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Annual Report of CAMS 2003年 9-10页

作者： CNPR: xue jishan Chen Dehui Chen Xian

Great advancement was gained in developing the Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES),the new generation numerical weather prediction(NWP)model system in China in *** in severalkey research te... 详细信息

关键词： NWP in Great Advancement in Developing New Generation NWP Model System in China GRAPES been of for

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和预报员谈数值预报

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气象 2007年第8期33卷 3-11页

作者：薛纪善中国气象科学研究院北京100081

用尽可能非专业的词语,向预报员介绍数值预报的成就、问题与应用。在简单回顾数值预报发展历史的基础上,重点分析了近十几年来数值预报的主要技术进步与有待解决的问题,对比了数值预报与主观经验预报的各自优势与不足,提出了优势互补对... 详细信息

用尽可能非专业的词语,向预报员介绍数值预报的成就、问题与应用。在简单回顾数值预报发展历史的基础上,重点分析了近十几年来数值预报的主要技术进步与有待解决的问题,对比了数值预报与主观经验预报的各自优势与不足,提出了优势互补对于提高业务预报的重要性。还分析了数值预报的技术进步对于数值预报产品释用的影响,以及预报员参与数值预报发展的可能性与必要性。

关键词：数值预报预报员优势互补

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