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Bayesian inference for dynamical systems

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 221-232页

作者： weston c.roda Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAB T6G 2G1Canada

Bayesian inference is a common method for conducting parameter estimation for dynamical *** the prevalent use of Bayesian inference for performing parameter estimation for dynamical systems,there is a need for a formalized and detailed *** paper presents a comprehensive methodology for dynamical system parameter estimation using Bayesian inference and it covers utilizing different distributions,Markov chain Monte carlo(McMc)sampling,obtaining credible intervals for parameters,and prediction intervals for solutions.A logistic growth example is given to illustrate the methodology.

关键词： Bayesian Inference Model fitting Data Dynamical system Mathematical model

Why is it difficult to accurately predict the cOVID-19 epidemic?

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 271-281页

作者： weston c.roda Marie B.Varughese Donglin Han Michael Y.Li Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2G1 Canada Analytics and Performance Reporting Branch Alberta HealthEdmontonAlbertaT5J 2N3Canada

Since the cOVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan city in December of 2019,numerous model predictions on the cOVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of china have been *** model predictions have shown a wide range of *** our study,we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide *** the Akaike Information criterion(AIc)for model selection,we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case *** indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler *** present our model predictions for the cOVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23,*** also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic,and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.

关键词： cOVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan SIR and SEIR models Bayesian inference Model selection Nonidentifiability Quarantine Peak time of epidemic

A new oral formulation for the release of sodium butyrate in the ileo-cecal region and colon

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2007年第7期13卷 1079-1084页

作者： Aldo roda Patrizia Simoni Maria Magliulo Paolo Nanni Mario Baraldini Giulia roda Enrico roda Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences University of Bologna Via Belmeloro 6 Bologna 40126 Italy Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology University of Bologna via Massarenti 9 Bologna 40126 Italy

AIM: To develop a new formulation with hydroxy propyl methyl cellulose and Shellac coating for extended and selective delivery of butyrate in the ileo-caecal region and colon. METHODS: One-gram sodium butyrate coated tablets containing 13c-butyrate were orally administered to 12 healthy subjects and 12 crohn's disease patients and the rate of 13c-butyrate absorption was evaluated by 13cO2 breath test analysis for eight hours. Tauroursodeoxycholic acid (500 mg) was co-administered as a biomarker of oro-ileal transit time to determine also the site of release and absorption of butyrate by the time of its serum maximum concentration. RESULTS: The coated formulation delayed the 13c-butyrate release by 2-3 h with respect to the uncoated tablets. Sodium butyrate was delivered in the intestine of all subjects and a more variable transit time was found in crohn's disease patients than in healthy subjects. The variability of the peak 13cO2 in the kinetic release of butyrate was explained by the inter-subject variability in transit time. However, the coating chosen ensured an efficient release of the active compound even in patients with a short transit time. cONcLUSION: Simultaneous evaluation of breath 13cO2 and tauroursodeoxycholic acid concentration- time curves has shown that the new oral formulation consistently releases sodium butyrate in the ileo-cecal region and colon both in healthy subjects and crohn's disease patients with variable intestinal transit time. This formulation may be of therapeutic value in inflammatory bowel disease patients due to the appropriate release of the active compound.

关键词：公式化列方程式丁酸钠盲肠结肠

G-cSF in Peg-IFN induced neutropenia in liver transplanted patients with HcV recurrence

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2009年第43期15卷 5449-5454页

作者： Francesca Lodato Francesco Azzaroli Maria Rosa Tamè Maria Di Girolamo Federica Buonfiglioli Natalia Mazzella Paolo cecinato Enrico roda Giuseppe Mazzella Department of Digestive Diseases and Internal Medicine University of BolognaBologna 40138Italy

AIM:To evaluate the efficacy of granulocyte colony stimulating factors(G-cSF)in liver transplanted patients with hepatitis c(HcV)recurrence and Pegylated-IFN α-2b induced neutropenia,and to evaluate the impact of G-cSF administration on virological response. METHODS:Sixty-eight patients undergoing antiviral treatment for post-liver transplantation(OLT)HcV recurrence were *** patients developing neutropenia received G-cSF. RESULTS:Twenty three(34%)received *** neutrophil count at the onset of neutropenia was 700/mmc(range 400-750/mmc);after 1 mo of G-cSF it increased to 1210/mmc(range 300-5590/mmc) (PcSF. Treatment duration was similar in neutropenic and non-neutropenic *** differences in the rate of discontinuation,infections or virological response were observed between the two groups.G-cSF was protective for the onset of de novo autoimmune hepatitis(PcONcLUSION:G-cSF administration is effective in the case of Peg-IFN induced neutropenia increasingneutrophil count,prolonging treatment and leading to sustained virological response(SVR)rates comparable to non-neutropenic *** prevents the occurrence of de novo autoimmune hepatitis.

关键词：丙型肝炎病毒中性粒细胞干扰素α 聚乙二醇 cSF 肝移植粒细胞集落刺激因子患者

Unique immunological profile in patients with cOVID-19

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cellular & Molecular Immunology 2021年第3期18卷 604-612页

作者： Stefania Varchetta Dalila Mele Barbara Olivier Stefania Mantovani Serena Ludovisi Antonella cerino Raffaele Bruno Alberto castelli Mario Mosconi Marco Vecchia Silvia roda Michele Sachs catherine Klersy Mario U.Mondelli Division of Infectious Diseases Ⅱ and Immunology Fondazione IRCCS Polidinico San MatteoPaviaItaly Department of Internal Medicine and Therapeutics University of PaviaPaviaItaly Division of Infectious Diseases I Fondazione IRCCS Polidinico San MatteoPaviaItaly Department of clinical SurgicalDiagnosticand Pediatric SciencesUniversity of PaviaPaviaItaly Division of Orthopaedics and Traumatology Fondazione IRCCS Polidinico San MatteoPaviaItaly Department of clinical-Surgical Diagnostic and Pediatric SciencesUniversity of PaviaPaviaItaly clinical Epidemiology&Biometry Unit IRCCS Fondazione Polidinico San MatteoPaviaItaly

The relationship between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2(SARS-coV-2)and host immunity is poorly *** performed an extensive analysis of immune responses in 32 patients with severe cOVID-19,some of whom succumbed A control population of healthy subjects was *** with cOVID-19 had an altered distribution of peripheral blood lymphocytes,with an increased proportion of mature natural killer(NK)cells and low T-cell *** cells and cD8^(+)T cells overexpressed T-cellimmunoglobulin and mucin domain-3(TIM-3)and *** cell exhaustion was attested by increased frequencies of programmed cell death protein 1(PD-1)positive cells and reduced frequencies of natural killer group 2 member D(NKG2D)-,DNAX accessory molecule-1(DNAM-1)-and sialic acid-binding Ig-like lectin 7(Siglec-7)-expressing NK cells,associated with a reduced ability to secrete interferon(IFN)γ.Patients with poor outcome showed a contraction of immature cD56^(bright) and an expansion of mature cD57^(+)F_(cEI)Rlγ^(eng) adaptive NK cells compared to *** serum levels of IL-6 were also more frequently identified in deceased patients compared to *** note,monocytes secreted abundant quantities of IL-6,IL-8,and IL-1β which persisted at lower levels several weeks after recovery with concomitant normalization of cD69,PD-1 and TIM-3 expression and restoration of cD8^(+)T cell numbers.A hyperactivated/exhausted immune response dominate in severe SARS-coV-2 infection,probably driven by an uncontrolled secretion of inflammatory cytokines by *** findings unveil a unique immunological profile in cOVID-19 patients that will help to design effective stage-specific treatments for this potentially deadly disease.

关键词： c0VID-19 NK cells TIM-3 IL6 Monocytes

Non-invasive panel tests for gastrointestinal motility monitoring within the MARS-500 Project

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2013年第14期19卷 2208-2216页

作者： Aldo roda Mara Mirasoli Massimo Guardigli Patrizia Simoni Davide Festi Boris Afonin Galina Vasilyeva Department of chemistry "G.ciamician" University of Bologna-Alma Mater Studiorum Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences University of Bologna-Alma Mater Studiorum State Scientific center of Russian Federation-Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences(IBMP)

AIM:To develop an integrated approach for monitoring gastrointestinal motility and inflammation state suitable for application in long-term ***:Breath tests based on the oral administration of 13 c-labeled or hydrogen-producing substrates followed by the detection of their metabolites(13 cO 2 or H 2) in breath were used to measure gastrointestinal motility parameters during the 520-d spaceflight ground simulation within the MARS-500 *** particular,the gastric emptying rates of solid and liquid contents were evaluated by 13 c-octanoic acid and 13 cacetate breath tests,respectively,whereas the orocecal transit time was assessed by an inulin H 2-breath test,which was performed simultaneously with the 13 c-octanoic acid breath test.A ready-to-eat,standardized pre-packaged muffin containing 100 mg of 13 c-octanoic acid was used in the 13 c-octanoic acid breath test to avoid the extemporaneous preparation of solid *** addition,a cassette-type lateral flow immunoassay was employed to detect fecal calprotectin,a biomarker of intestinal *** no items could be introduced into the simulator during the experiment,all materials and instrumentation required for test performance during the entire mission simulation had to be provided at the beginning of the ***:The experiments planned during the simulation of a manned flight to Mars could be successfully performed by the crewmembers without any external *** evident alterations(i.e.,increasing or decreasing trends) in the gastric emptying rates were detected using the 13 c-breath tests during the mission simulation,as the gastric emptying half-times were in the range of those reported for healthy *** contrast to the 13 c-breath tests,the results of the inulin H 2-breath test were difficult to interpret because of the high variability of the H 2 concentration in the breath samples,even within the same *** variability suggested that the H 2-breath

关键词： Breath test Gastrointestinal inflammation Gastrointestinal motility Spaceflight Stress

Performance and calibration of quark/gluon-jet taggers using 140 fb^(-1) of pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

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chinese Physics c 2024年第2期48卷 1-25页

作者： G. Aad B. Abbott K. Abeling N.J. Abicht S.H. Abidi A. Aboulhorma H. Abramowicz H. Abreu Y. Abulaiti B.S. Acharya c. Adam Bourdarios L. Adamczyk S.V. Addepalli M.J. Addison J. Adelman A. Adiguzel T. Adye A.A. Affolder Y. Afik M.N. Agaras J. Agarwala A. Aggarwal c. Agheorghiesei A. Ahmad F. Ahmadov W.S. Ahmed S. Ahuja X. Ai G. Aielli A. Aikot M. Ait Tamlihat B. Aitbenchikh I. Aizenberg M. Akbiyik T.P.A. Åkesson A.V. Akimov D. Akiyama N.N. Akolkar K. Al Khoury G.L. Alberghi J. Albert P. Albicocco G.L. Albouy S. Alderweireldt M. Aleksa I.N. Aleksandrov c. Alexa T. Alexopoulos F. Alfonsi M. Algren M. Alhroob B. Ali H.M.J. Ali S. Ali S.W. Alibocus M. Aliev G. Alimonti W. Alkakhi c. Allaire B.M.M. Allbrooke J.F. Allen c.A. Allendes Flores P.P. Allport A. Aloisio F. Alonso c. Alpigiani M. Alvarez Estevez A. Alvarez Fernandez M. Alves cardoso M.G. Alviggi M. Aly Y. Amaral coutinho A. Ambler c. Amelung M. Amerl c.G. Ames D. Amidei S.P. Amor Dos Santos K.R. Amos V. Ananiev c. Anastopoulos T. Andeen J.K. Anders S.Y. Andrean A. Andreazza S. Angelidakis A. Angerami A.V. Anisenkov A. Annovi c. Antel M.T. Anthony E. Antipov M. Antonelli F. Anulli M. Aoki T. Aoki J.A. Aparisi Pozo M.A. Aparo L. Aperio Bella c. Appelt A. Apyan N. Aranzabal S.J. Arbiol Val c. Arcangeletti A.T.H. Arce E. Arena J-F. Arguin S. Argyropoulos J.-H. Arling O. Arnaez H. Arnold G. Artoni H. Asada K. Asai S. Asai N.A. Asbah J. Assahsah K. Assamagan R. Astalos S. Atashi R.J. Atkin M. Atkinson H. Atmani P.A. Atmasiddha K. Augsten S. Auricchio A.D. Auriol V.A. Austrup G. Avolio K. Axiotis G. Azuelos D. Babal H. Bachacou K. Bachas A. Bachiu F. Backman A. Badea P. Bagnaia M. Bahmani A.J. Bailey V.R. Bailey J.T. Baines L. Baines O.K. Baker E. Bakos D. Bakshi Gupta V. Balakrishnan R. Balasubramanian E.M. Baldin P. Balek E. Ballabene F. Balli L.M. Baltes W.K. Balunas J. Balz E. Banas M. Bandieramonte A. Bandyopadhyay S. Bansal L. Barak M. Barakat E.L. Barberio D. Barberis M. Barbero M.Z. Barel K.N. Barends T. Barillari M-S. Barisits T. Barklow P. Baron D.A. Baron Mo The ATLAS collaboration

The identification of jets originating from quarks and gluons,often referred to as quark/gluon tagging,plays an important role in various analyses performed at the Large Hadron collider,as Standard Model measurements and searches for new particles decaying to quarks often rely on suppressing a large gluon-induced *** paper describes the measurement of the efficiencies of quark/gluon taggers developed within the ATLAS collaboration,using √s=13 TeV proton–proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb^(-1) collected by the ATLAS *** taggers with high performances in rejecting jets from gluon over jets from quarks are studied:one tagger is based on requirements on the number of inner-detector tracks associated with the jet,and the other combines several jet substructure observables using a boosted decision tree.A method is established to determine the quark/gluon fraction in data,by using quark/gluon-enriched subsamples defined by the jet *** in tagging efficiency between data and simulation are provided for jets with transverse momentum between 500 GeV and 2 TeV and for multiple tagger working points.

关键词： ATLAS JET QUARK GLUON TAGGING

Production of reactive oxygen species and expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase in rat isolated Kupffer cells stimulated by Leptospira interrogans and Borrelia burgdorfen

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第19期12卷 3077-3081页

作者： Antonella Marangoni Silvia Accardo Rita Aldini Massimo Guardigli Francesca cavrini Vittorio Sambri Marco Montagnani Aldo roda Roberto cevenini Sezione di Microbiologia DMcSS University of Bologna BolognaItaly Istituto di Scienze chimiche University of Bologna BolognaItaly Dipartimento di Scienze Farmaceutiche University of Bologna BolognaItaly Dipartimento di Medicina Interna e Gastroenterologia University of Bologna BolognaItaly

瞄准：为了评估反应的氧种类(ROS ) 和可诱导的氮的氧化物的表示的生产，在老鼠的 synthase (i NOS ) 孤立肾脏钩端螺旋体和包柔氏螺旋体属 burgdorferi 刺激的 Kupffer 房间(Kc ) 。方法：老鼠 Kupffer 房间被肝的灌注用 0.05% 胶原酶... 详细信息

瞄准：为了评估反应的氧种类(ROS ) 和可诱导的氮的氧化物的表示的生产，在老鼠的 synthase (i NOS ) 孤立肾脏钩端螺旋体和包柔氏螺旋体属 burgdorferi 刺激的 Kupffer 房间(Kc ) 。方法：老鼠 Kupffer 房间被肝的灌注用 0.05% 胶原酶分开，并且由 Percoll 坡度净化了。净化的 Kupffer 房间是有活着的 L 的测试在试管内。interogans 和 B。burgdorferi 准备。ROS 的生产被化合光决定，而 i NOS 蛋白质表达式被西方的污点试金用 anti-iNOS 抗体计算。结果：B。burgdorferi 并且到一更少的程度 L。interrogans 与一座山峰导致了 ROS 生产在感染以后的 35 min。化合光信号日益增多地减少了并且由孵化的 180 min 是无法发现的。Leptospirae 和 borreliae 在在 6 个小时达到顶点并且仍然是明显的 Kupffer 房间导致了增加的 i NOS 表情在感染以后的 22 h。结论：螺旋菌的两个类在老鼠 Kupffer 细胞导致了 ROS 和 i NOS 生产。自从在 leptospiral 以及在 borrelial 感染的肝损坏的原因，仍然是未知的，我们建议那螺旋体和肝的包柔氏螺旋体属损坏能被氧激进分子开始调停，并且然后被氮的氧化物部分地至少维持。

关键词：一氧化氮合酶钩端螺旋体包柔氏螺旋体菌细菌感染

Systemic lupus erythematosus following virological response to peginterferon alfa-2b in a transplanted patient with chronic hepatitis c recurrence

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第26期12卷 4253-4255页

作者： Francesca Lodato Maria Rosa Tamé Antonio colecchia chiara Racchini Francesco Azzaroli Antonia D'Errico Silvia casanova Antonio Pinna Enrico roda Giuseppe Mazzella Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology University of BolognaItaly Department of Experimental Pathology "F. Addari" Institute of OncologyUniversity of BolognaItaly Department of Surgery and Transplantation Sant' Orsola-Malpighi HospitalUniversity of BolognaItaly

自体免疫的表明在丙肝病毒长期地感染的病人，并且在为非自体免疫的疾病移植的病人是普通的。在干扰素之间的关联基于治疗和自体免疫的疾病或自身抗体的发展很好在非移植的病人被建立，但是很少数据关于移植病人是可得到的。干扰素是否... 详细信息

自体免疫的表明在丙肝病毒长期地感染的病人，并且在为非自体免疫的疾病移植的病人是普通的。在干扰素之间的关联基于治疗和自体免疫的疾病或自身抗体的发展很好在非移植的病人被建立，但是很少数据关于移植病人是可得到的。干扰素是否可以增加尖锐细胞的拒绝的发生，是不清楚的，在肝以后的移植干扰素或 pegylated 干扰素治疗期间在不正常的自体免疫的表明的发展有很少报告。我们与长期的丙肝的复发在一个移植病人与 pegylated 干扰素 alfa-2b 描述全身性红斑狼疮追随者治疗的一个案例。我们的经验建议那 pegylated 干扰素可以在免疫导致自体免疫的疾病压制的主人，与为到在干扰素期间，在肝的基于的治疗移植了的可能的自体免疫的混乱开发的大注意的尖锐细胞的拒绝和电话不同病人。

关键词：系统型狼疮病毒感染丙型肝炎治疗