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Why is it difficult to accurately predict the cOVID-19 epidemic?

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 271-281页

作者： weston c.roda Marie B.Varughese Donglin Han Michael Y.Li Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2G1 Canada Analytics and Performance Reporting Branch Alberta HealthEdmontonAlbertaT5J 2N3Canada

Since the cOVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan city in December of 2019,numerous model predictions on the cOVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of china have been *** model predictions have shown a wide range of *** our study,we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide *** the Akaike Information criterion(AIc)for model selection,we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case *** indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler *** present our model predictions for the cOVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23,*** also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic,and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.

关键词： cOVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan SIR and SEIR models Bayesian inference Model selection Nonidentifiability Quarantine Peak time of epidemic

Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of cOVID-19 variants of concern:Asymptotic and finite-time perspectives

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 581-596页

作者： Adriana-Stefania ciupeanu Marie Varughese weston c.roda Donglin Han Qun cheng Michael Y.Li Department of Mathematics and Department of Statistics University of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaR3T 2N2Canada Analytics and Performance Reporting Branch Alberta HealthEdmontonAlbertaCanada Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2G1Canada

The cOVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern(VOcs)of the SARS-cov-2 *** the cOVID-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state,how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOcs has become one of the primary public health *** mathematical modeling tools,we investigated the dynamics of VOcs,both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past cOVID-19 waves,with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of *** results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOc is a main factor for it to become ***,our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOc plays an important role in determining the size of the *** results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOc taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOc(Wu et al.,2139Wu,Scarabel,Majeed,Bragazzi,&Orbinski,Wu et al.,2021).

关键词： cOVID-19 pandemic Variants of concern Mathematical modeling coexistence and replacement of variants Public health measures

Intestinal epithelial cells in inflammatory bowel diseases

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2010年第34期16卷 4264-4271页

作者： Giulia roda Alessandro Sartini Elisabetta Zambon Andrea calafiore Margherita Marocchi Alessandra caponi Andrea Belluzzi Enrico roda Department of clinical Medicine University of Bologna Gastroenterology Unit S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital 40138 Bologna Italy

The pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) seems to involve a primary defect in one or more of the elements responsible for the maintenance of intestinal homeostasis and oral tolerance. The most important element is represented by the intestinal barrier, a complex system formed mostly by intestinal epithelial cells (IEcs). IEcs have an active role in producing mucus and regulating its composition; they provide a physical barrier capable of controlling antigen traff ic through the intestinal mucosa. At the same time, they are able to play the role of non-professional antigen presenting cells, by processing and presenting antigens directly to the cells of the intestinal immune system. On the other hand, immune cells regulate epithelial growth and differentiation, producing a continuous bi-directional cross-talk within the barrier. Several alterations of the barrier function have been identif ied in IBD, starting from mucus features up to its components, from epithelial junctions up to the Toll-like receptors, and altered immune responses. It remains to be understood whether these defects are primary causes of epithelial damage or secondary effects. We review the possible role of the epithelial barrier and particularly describe the role of IEcs in the pathogenesis of IBD.

关键词： Intestinal epithelial cells Epithelial barrier Tight junctions crohn’s disease Ulcerative colitis

An ontological modelling of multi-attribute criticality analysis to guide Prognostics and Health Management program development

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Autonomous Intelligent Systems 2022年第1期2卷 16-31页

作者： Adalberto Polenghi Irene roda Marco Macchi Alessandro Pozzetti Department of Management Economics and Industrial EngineeringPolitecnico di MilanoP.zza Leonardo da Vinci 3320133 MilanItaly

Digital technologies are becoming more pervasive and industrial companies are exploiting them to enhance the potentialities related to Prognostics and Health Management(PHM).Indeed,PHM allows to evaluate the health state of the physical assets as well as to predict their future *** be effective in developing PHM programs,the most critical assets should be identified so to direct modelling *** techniques could be adopted to evaluate asset criticality;in industrial practice,criticality analysis is amongst the most *** the advancement of artificial intelligence for data analysis and predictions,the criticality analysis,which is built upon both quantitative and qualitative data,has not been improved *** is the goal of this work to propose an ontological formalisation of a multi-attribute criticality analysis in order to i)fix the semantics behind the terms involved in the analysis,ii)standardize and uniform the way criticality analysis is performed,and iii)take advantage of the reasoning capabilities to automatically evaluate asset criticality and associate a suitable maintenance *** developed ontology,called MOcA,is tested in a food company featuring a global *** application shows that MOcA can accomplish the prefixed goals;specifically,high priority assets towards which direct PHM programs are *** the long run,ontologies could serve as a unique knowledge base that integrate multiple data and information across facilities in a consistent *** such,they will enable advanced analytics to take place,allowing to move towards cognitive cyber Physical Systems that enhance business performance for companies spread worldwide.

关键词： criticality analysis Ontology Artificial intelligence Prognostics and Health Management PHM Maintenance

Solutes in native plants in the Arabian Gulf region and the role of microorganisms: future research

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2018年第5期11卷 671-684页

作者： roda Fahad Al-Thani Bassam Taha Yasseen Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences College of Arts&SciencesQatar UniversityDohaQatar Present address:8 James court Dunstable RoadLuton LU40HNUK.

Aims One of the outstanding challenges facing humankind is increas-ing crop production under various types of severe environmental *** measures have been taken to adopt molecular and biotechnological approaches that lead to the development of transgenic plants able to deal with such harsh and polluted ***,such solutions could be very expensive and require considerable efforts and time to achieve these *** main objective of this review is to discuss the new biological solutions that have emerged in the last decade,as environmentally friendly approaches,perhaps to support and/or replace the present *** solutions based on plant-microbe interactions could be a lifeline and promising alternative strategy to create plants with a high resistance to the extreme *** During the last two decades research projects have been conducted to study the ecology,identify the features,and the ecophysiology of native plants and the associated microorganisms in the Arabian Gulf region and particularly in *** physiological and bio-chemical parameters have been determined,including organic sol-utes(amino acids like proline,glycinebetaine,soluble sugars,etc.),photosynthetic pigments,organic acids and inorganic ions espe-cially heavy metals,along with the physical and chemical proper-ties of the soil in various locations of the State of ***,the microorganisms adjacent to and associated with these native plants were identified to elucidate the possible roles in the soil biota in supporting these plants against extreme environmental *** Findings Investigations of native plants in the Arabian Gulf states during the last decade have shown that wild plants exhibit different abili-ties to accumulate organic solutes to cope with the harsh natural *** is a major factor stressing wildlife in this region due to the expansion of urban sectors and industrial activi-ties of oil and ***

关键词： Arabian Gulf region arid lands compatible solutes drought microorganisms modern approaches pollution salinity

How many subductions in the Variscan orogeny?Insights from numerical models

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Geoscience Frontiers 2020年第3期11卷 1025-1052页

作者： Alessandro Regorda Jean-Marc Lardeaux Manuel roda Anna Maria Marotta Maria Iole Spalla Universita Degli Studi di Milano Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra'A.Desio’Via Mangiagalli 34I-20133MilanoItaly Universite Nice Sophia-Antipolis UMR Geoazur250 Rue A.EinsteinSophia-Antipolis06560ValbonneFrance

We developed a 2 D numerical model to simulate the evolution of two superposed ocean-continent-ocean subduction cycles with opposite vergence,both followed by continental collision,aiming to better understand the evolution of the Variscan *** models with different velocities of the first oceanic subduction have been *** differences in the thermo-mechanical evolution between the first subduction,which activates in an unperturbed system,and the second subduction,characterised by an opposite vergence,have been enlighten,in particular regarding the temperature in the mantle wedge and in the interior of the *** and temperature(P-T) conditions predicted by one cycle and two cycles models have been compared with natural P-T estimates of the Variscan metamorphism from the Alps and from the French Massif central(FMc).The comparative analysis supports that a slow and hot subduction well reproduces the P-T conditions compatible with data from the FMc,while P-T conditions compatible with data of Variscan metamorphism from the Alps can be reproduced by either a cold or hot oceanic subduction *** the agreement of both double and single subduction models with natural P-T estimates,we observed that polycyclic models better describe the evolution of the Variscan orogeny.

关键词： Alps Double subduction French Massif central Numerical modelling Variscan orogeny

A new oral formulation for the release of sodium butyrate in the ileo-cecal region and colon

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2007年第7期13卷 1079-1084页

作者： Aldo roda Patrizia Simoni Maria Magliulo Paolo Nanni Mario Baraldini Giulia roda Enrico roda Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences University of Bologna Via Belmeloro 6 Bologna 40126 Italy Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology University of Bologna via Massarenti 9 Bologna 40126 Italy

AIM： To develop a new formulation with hydroxy propyl methyl cellulose and Shellac coating for extended and selective delivery of butyrate in the ileo-caecal region and colon. METHODS： One-gram sodium butyrate coated tablets containing ^13c-butyrate were orally administered to 12 healbhy subjects and 12 crohn＇s disease patients and the rate of ^13c-butyrate absorption was evaluated by t3cO2 breath test analysis for eight hours. Tauroursodeoxycholic acid （500 rag） was co-administered as a biomarker of oro-ileal transit time to determine also the site of release and absorption of butyrate by the time of its serum maximum concentration. RESULTS： The coated formulation delayed the ^13c-butyrate release by 2-3 h with respect to the uncoated tablets. Sodium butyrate was delivered in the intestine of all subjects and a more variable transit time was found in crohn＇s disease patients than in healthy subjects. The variability of the peak ^13cO2 in the kinetic release of butyrate was explained by the inter-subject variability in transit time. However, the coating chosen ensured an efficient release of the active compound even in patients with a short transit time. cONcLUSION： Simultaneous evaluation of breath ^13cO2 and tauroursodeoxycholic acid concentrationtime curves has shown that the new oral formulation consistently releases sodium butyrate in the ileo-cecal region and colon both in healthy subjects and crohn＇s disease patients with variable intestinal transit time. This formulation may be of therapeutic value in inflammatory bowel disease patients due to the appropriate release of the active compound.

关键词： Sodium butyrate Inflammatory boweldiseases Ulcerative colitis crohn's disease controlledrelease formulation Pharmacokinetics Stable isotope Breath test

Robust and highly efficient electrocatalyst based on ZIF-67 and Ni^(2+) dimers for oxygen evolution reaction:In situ mechanistic insight

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Journal of Energy chemistry 2023年第11期86卷 263-276,I0006页

作者： Anna Dymerska Bartosz Środa Krzysztof Sielicki Grzegorz Leniec Beata Zielińska Rustem Zairov Renat Nazmutdinov Ewa Mijowska Department of Nanomaterials Physicochemistry Faculty of Chemical Technology and EngineeringWest Pomeranian University of TechnologySzczecinPiastów Ave.1771-065 SzczecinPoland Department of Technical Physics Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and MechatronicsWest Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecinal.Piastów 4870-311 SzczecinPoland A.M.Butlerov Institute of chemistry Kazan Federal UniversityKazan4200081/29 Lobachevskogo str.Russian Federation Arbuzov Institute of Organic and Physical chemistry FRC Kazan Scientific CenterRussian Academy of Sciences420088Arbuzov str.8KazanRussian Federation Kazan National Research Technological University 420015 KazanK.Marx Str.68Russian Federation

Electrochemical water splitting is a straightforward process that involves two distinct reactions:the oxygen evolution reaction(OER)which produces oxygen(O_(2))and the hydrogen evolution reaction(HER)which generates hydrogen(H_(2)).However,in the whole process,the OER is a bottleneck as it requires more energy than a four-electron reaction involving critical raw materials(such as RuO_(2)or IrO_(2))as ***,here,we address the challenge of erratic kinetics/limited durability of OER in water electrolysis,In this paper,we demonstrate that the deposition of ultrasmall amounts of nickel(Ⅱ)nitrate in zeolitic imidazolate framework-67(ZIF-67)can be used as a general approach to enhance the electrocatalytic performance of the *** investigated the influence of Ni(NO_(3))·x6H_(2)O loading on ZIF-67(from 0.1 to 0.0001 M)and found that ZIF-67 enriched with only 0.001 M of Ni(NO_(3))2·x6H_(2)O(ZIF-670.001 Ni)exhibited massive promotion in *** ZIF-670.001 Ni showed a large specific surface area of 2577 m^(2)g^(-1),a low overpotential of 299 mV,a lower Tafel slope of 94.1 mA dec^(-1),and an outstanding overpotential retention of 99.8%(at 50 mA cm^(-2)).By conducting electron paramagnetic resonance(EPR)measurements,we also discovered that the 0.001 M of Ni(NO_(3))_(2)·x6H_(2)O loading in ZIF-67 introduces Ni^(^(2+))dimers,which contribute to the enhanced electroactivity of the modified *** phenomenon was further revealed during density-functional theory(DFT)calculations,which allowed us to identify different possible forms of Ni^(^(2+))dimers and modeling of active *** with in situ experiments,we provide mechanistic insight into the OER mechanism under alkaline conditions and found that it follows the lattice oxygen mechanism(LOM).Our study proposes a facile and efficient room-temperature route to boost the electrochemical performance of ZIF-67 in *** the first time,we demonstrate that modifying ZIF-67 with an ultrasmall amoun

关键词： ZIF-67 Oxygen evolution reaction Nickel(Il)nitrate Electrocatalysis

Amyloid-beta peptide and tau protein crosstalk in Alzheimer’s disease

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Neural Regeneration Research 2022年第8期17卷 1666-1674页

作者： Alejandro R.roda Gabriel Serra-Mir Laia Montoliu-Gaya Lidia Tiessler Sandra Villegas Protein Design and Immunotherapy Group Departament de Bioquímica i Biologia MolecularFacultat de BiociènciesUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaBellaterraBarcelonaSpain Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry Institute of Neuroscience and PhysiologyThe Sahlgrenska AcademyUniversity of GothenburgSweden

Alzheimer’s disease is a neurodegenerative disease that accounts for most of the 50-million dementia cases worldwide in 2018.A large amount of evidence supports the amyloid cascade hypothesis,which states that amyloid-beta accumulation triggers tau hyperphosphorylation and aggregation in form of neurofibrillary tangles,and these aggregates lead to inflammation,synaptic impairment,neuronal loss,and thus to cognitive decline and behavioral *** poor correlation found between cognitive decline and amyloid plaques,have led the scientific community to question whether amyloid-beta accumulation is actually triggering neurodegeneration in Alzheimer’s *** occurrence of tau neurofibrillary tangles better correlates to neuronal loss and clinical symptoms and,although amyloid-beta may initiate the cascade of events,tau impairment is likely the effector molecule of ***,it has been shown that amyloid-beta and tau cooperatively work to impair transcription of genes involved in synaptic function and,more importantly,that downregulation of tau partially reverses transcriptional *** mounting evidence points to an interplay between amyloid-beta and tau,some factors could independently affect both ***,the dual pathway hypothesis,which states that there are common upstream triggers causing both amyloid-beta and tau abnormalities has been *** others,the immune system seems to be strongly involved in amyloid-beta and tau *** factors,as the apolipoprotein Eε4 isoform has been suggested to act as a link between amyloid-beta and tau ***,amyloid-beta-immunotherapy reduces not only amyloid-beta but also tau levels in animal models and in clinical ***,it has been shown that tau-immunotherapy also reduces amyloid-beta ***,even though amyloid-beta immunotherapy is more advanced than tau-immunotherapy,combined amyloid-beta and tau-directed therapie

关键词： aggregation Alzheimer amyloid-beta dementia immunotherapy inflammation neurodegeneration tau