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Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project Considering the Effects of Flood Risk Reduction and Resettlement

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 795-812页

作者： Peng Zeng weihua fang Haixia Zhang Zhongmin Liang Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China Academy of Disaster Risk Science Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE) Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing210098China

Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of flood disaster risk management projects is crucial.However,current costbenefit analyses(CBA) often lack reliable estimates of the expected loss reduction from flood control measures and ignore quantitative assessments of resettlement.To address these limitations,this study incorporated a probabilistic risk analysis method and quantitative resettlement benefits assessment into the CBA framework,using the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project(WIFMP) in Jiangxi Province,China,as a case study.The direct economic benefits of flood control were estimated by integrating hydrological statistics,numerical flood inundation simulation,and quantitative damage analysis with exposure and vulnerability data.Furthermore,the resettlement benefits were quantified by measuring the annual income growth of migrants based on assumptions about household employment.Our analysis shows that the total WIFMP investment is RMB 3546.1 million yuan(USD 1=RMB 6.976 yuan),including loan principal and interest of 244.4 million yuan,and operations and maintenance of 605.5 million yuan at 2020 prices.Annual project benefits are estimated at 351.3 million yuan in flood risk reduction,155.7-191.9 million yuan from increased resettlement income,and 42.7 million yuan in power and water revenues.Considering the costs and benefits across the entire project lifecycle,the internal rate of return ranges from 13.7 to 14.2%,and the net present value ranges from 31.8 to 352.6 billion yuan.Through improved benefit estimation methodology,this research enables a more reliable and holistic evaluation of costs and benefits for flood risk management projects.It provides insights for policymakers and practitioners involved in similar projects,contributing to more informed decision making and better allocation of resources in flood disaster risk management.

关键词： Cost-benefit analysis Flood management project Resettlement Risk reduction

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Impact of Tropical Cyclone Avoidance on Fishing Vessel Activity over Coastal China Based on Automatic Identification System Data during 2013–2018

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第4期13卷 561-576页

作者： weihua fang Cunmin Guo Yinan Han Rongfa Qing Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Guangzhou 511458China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing 100875China

Tropical cyclones(TCs)may cause severe impacts on the activities of coastal fishing vessels.Due to the unavailability or unacceptability of detailed Automatic Identification System(AIS)data that are capable of differentiating fishing activity from navigation,as well as the lack of detailed models and observation data of TC winds,few studies have provided quantitative and reliable assessment of the impacts of TCs on fishing activities.In this study,we modeled snapshots for the TC winds of 52 TCs over the Northwest Pacific(NWP)basin from 2013 to 2018,as well as daily fishing hours and daily hours of presence(hereafter“vessel hours”)of fishing vessels.Based on these data,the spatiotemporal pattern of fishing vessel activity over off-shore China was first analyzed and mapped.Then,a TC wind hazard index and absolute and relative impact indices were proposed to assess the impact of the 52 TCs on fishing and vessel hours.Their relationship was then fitted with the cumulative distribution function(CDF)of the log-normal distribution.The results show that in the 2013-2018 period,the most active fishing areas were located in the South China Sea.In each instance,an increase was first observed in the initial several years;then a decrease followed in the yearly total fishing hours per vessel in the remaining years.The relative impact index was significantly correlated to the TC wind hazard index proposed in this study.Based on the quantitative relationship between the specified TC hazard index and the impact indices,it is possible to implement a pre-cyclone rapid loss assessment due to TC avoidance in the future.

关键词： Fishing hours Fishing moratorium Impact index Tropical cyclone Vessel hours

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Comparative Study on Deformation Prediction Models of Wuqiangxi Concrete Gravity Dam Based on Monitoring Data

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2022年第4期131卷 49-72页

作者： Songlin Yang Xingjin Han Chufeng Kuang weihua fang Jianfei Zhang Tiantang Yu Hunan Wuling Power Technology Corporation Ltd. Changsha410004China Wuling Power Corporation Ltd. Changsha410004China Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation Ministry of Water ResourcesNanjing210012China Department of Engineering Mechanics Hohai UniversityNanjing211100China

The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed,including two statistical models and a deep learning model.In the statistical models,the reliable monitoring data are firstly determined with Lahitte criterion;then,the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models for deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam are constructed in terms of the reliable monitoring data,and the factors of water pressure,temperature and time effect are considered in the models;finally,according to the monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 of five typical measuring points including J23(on dam section 24^(#)),J33(on dam section 4^(#)),J35(on dam section 8^(#)),J37(on dam section 12^(#)),and J39(on dam section 15^(#))located on the crest of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam,the settlement curves of the measuring points are obtained with the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models.A deep learning model is developed based on long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent neural network.In the LSTM model,two LSTMlayers are used,the rectified linear unit function is adopted as the activation function,the input sequence length is 20,and the random search is adopted.The monitoring data for the five typical measuring points from 2006 to 2017 are selected as the training set,and the monitoring data from 2018 to 2020 are taken as the test set.From the results of case study,we can find that(1)the good fitting results can be obtained with the two statistical models;(2)the partial least squares regression algorithm can solve the model with high correlation factors and reasonably explain the factors;(3)the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model increases with increasing the amount of training data.In the deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam,the LSTM model is suggested when there are sufficient training data,while the partial least squares regression method is suggested when the training data are insufficient.

关键词： Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam deformation prediction stepwise regression model partial least squares regression model LSTM model

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Mapping the Wind Hazard of Global Tropical Cyclones with Parametric Wind Field Models by Considering the Effects of Local Factors

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第1期9卷 86-99页

作者： Chenyan Tan weihua fang Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University

Tropical cyclones(TCs) cause catastrophic loss in many coastal areas of the world. TC wind hazard maps can play an important role in disaster management. A good representation of local factors reflecting the effects of spatially heterogeneous terrain and land cover is critical to evaluation of TC wind hazard. Very few studies, however,provide global wind hazard assessment results that consider detailed local effects. In this study, the wind fields of historical TCs were simulated with parametric models in which the planetary boundary layer models explicitly integrate local effects at 1 km resolution. The topographic effects for eight wind directions were quantified over four types of terrain(ground, escarpment, ridge, and valley),and the surface roughness lengths were estimated from a global land cover map. The missing TC parameters in the best track datasets were reconstructed with local regression models. Finally, an example of a wind hazard map in the form of wind speeds under a 100-year return period and corresponding uncertainties was created based on a statistical analysis of reconstructed historical wind fields over seven of the world's ocean basins.

关键词： Surface roughness Topographic effect Tropical cyclone Wind field model Wind hazard

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The 2023 Earthquake in Türkiye and Implications for China's Response to Catastrophe

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第6期14卷 1044-1053页

作者： Peijun Shi Lianyou Liu weihua fang Jifu Liu Jidong Wu Lu Jiang Bo Chen Gangfeng Zhang Hao Zheng Yintong Zhang State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency ManagementBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Sciences Institute of Disaster Risk ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

On 6 February 2023,two 7.8 magnitude earthquakes consecutively hit south-central Türkiye,causing great concern from all governments,the United Nations,academia,and all sectors of society.Analyses indicate that there is also a high possibility of strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 or above occurring in the western region of China in the coming years.China is a country that is highly susceptible to catastrophic disasters such as earthquakes,floods,and other natural calamities,which can cause significant damages to both human life and property,as well as widespread impacts on the society.Currently,China's capacity for disaster prevention and control is still limited.In order to effectively reduce the impact of catastrophic disasters,ensure the safety of people's lives and property to the greatest extent possible,maintain social stability in high-risk areas,and ensure high-quality and sustainable regional development,it is urgent to improve the seismic resistance level of houses and critical infrastructure in high earthquake risk zones and increase the earthquake-resistant design level of houses in high-risk fault areas with frequent seismic activities;significantly enhance the ability to defend against extreme weather and ocean disasters in economically developed areas along the southeastern coast,as well as the level of fortification in response to extreme meteorological and hydrological disasters of coastal towns/cities and key infrastructure;vigorously enhance the emergency response capacity and disaster risk prevention level in western and ethnic minority regions;comprehensively improve the defense level of residential areas and major infrastructure in high geological hazard risk zones with flash floods,landslides,and mudslides;systematically promote national disaster prevention and mitigation education;and greatly enhance the societal disaster risk reduction ability,including catastrophic insurance.

关键词： China Disaster impact Disaster response Earthquake in Türkiye

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中国岛礁区热带气旋不同空间分辨率风场模拟比较研究

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热带地理 2024年第6期44卷 1001-1015页

作者：胡晓方伟华北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京100875 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室北京100875 北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院北京100875 应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院北京100875

中国岛礁数量众多,地形复杂,受热带气旋灾害影响大。高空间分辨率热带气旋风场模拟有助于表达风速空间异质性,对面积相对较小的岛礁地区开展高分辨率模拟具有重要意义。文章利用热带气旋路径、岛礁分布、土地覆盖以及数字高程数据,按照1... 详细信息

中国岛礁数量众多,地形复杂,受热带气旋灾害影响大。高空间分辨率热带气旋风场模拟有助于表达风速空间异质性,对面积相对较小的岛礁地区开展高分辨率模拟具有重要意义。文章利用热带气旋路径、岛礁分布、土地覆盖以及数字高程数据,按照1000、90和30 m分辨率风场模型模拟了中国岛礁区历史热带气旋风速,分地形类型对比分析了各分辨率下岛礁模拟风速大小的差异性,并比较了不同空间分辨率热带气旋100 a一遇风速的差异。结果表明:1)30 m空间分辨率风速模拟准确率更高,模拟风速与8个站点实测风速的均方根误差为4.28 m/s,比90和1000 m模拟结果误差分别降低了0.08和1.04 m/s;2)不同空间分辨率模拟风速误差与地形类型相关,浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛90和1000 m模拟风速与30 m模拟风速的对比表明,平均风速模拟差异比例在山峰地形下分别为6.57%和7.61%,山谷地形下分别为21.28%和17.35%,峭壁地形下分别为22.85%和23.37%,且30 m模拟风速对于迎风坡与背风坡地形转换更敏感;3)对于100 a一遇热带气旋风速,30 m模拟风速会出现最大的风速值且空间差异更大。以浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛为例,1000、90、30 m分辨率下的模拟风速最大值分别为71.13、73.18和79.97 m/s,标准差分别为3.88、3.72和7.18 m/s。

关键词：热带气旋风场空间分辨率复杂地形岛礁区中国

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Adaptive Extended Isogeometric Analysis for Steady-State Heat Transfer in Heterogeneous Media

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2021年第3期126卷 1315-1332页

作者： weihua fang Tiantang Yu Yin Yang Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology Ministry of Water ResourcesNanjing210012China Department of Engineering Mechanics Hohai UniversityNanjing211100China Lake Research Institute Hydraulic Research Institute of Jiangsu ProvinceNanjing210017China

Steady-state heat transfer problems in heterogeneous solid are simulated by developing an adaptive extended isogeometric analysis(XIGA)method based on locally refined non-uniforms rational B-splines(LR NURBS).In the XIGA,the LR NURBS,which have a simple local refinement algorithm and good description ability for complex geometries,are employed to represent the geometry and discretize the field variables;and some special enrichment functions are introduced into the approximation of temperature field,thus the computational mesh is independent of the material interfaces,which are described with the level setmethod.Similar to the approximation of temperature field,a temperature gradient recovery technique for heterogeneous media is proposed,and based on the Zienkiewicz–Zhu recovery technique a posteriori error estimator is defined to automatically identify the locally refined regions.The convergence and performance properties of the developed method are verified by using three numerical examples.The numerical results show that(1)The convergence speed of the adaptive local refinement is faster than that of the uniform global refinement;(2)The convergence rate of the high-order basis functions is faster than that of the low-order basis functions;and(3)The existing inclusions change the local distributions of the temperature,and the extreme values of the temperature gradients take place around the inclusion interfaces.

关键词： Heterogeneous media steady-state heat transfer adaptive XIGA LR NURBS heat dissipation

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基于机器学习算法的热带气旋灾害县级直接经济损失等级评估:以福建省为例

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热带地理 2024年第6期44卷 1064-1078页

作者：邵婧妍方伟华北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京100875 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室北京100875 北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院北京100875 应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院北京100875

为了探索机器学习模型在热带气旋灾害损失评估中的作用,基于2009—2020年福建省县级热带气旋灾害损失数据,分别采用LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine,LightGBM)、随机森林(Random Forest,RF)、极限梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost)、支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)、BP神经网络(Back-Propagation Neural Network,BP)等5种算法,优化了直接经济损失等级评估模型参数,并用不同的热带气旋事件进行验证。结果表明:基于LightGBM算法性能最佳,其准确率、精确率、召回率和F1分数(精确率和召回率的调和平均值)均在79%以上,具有较好的泛化能力;最大小时降雨量、3 s极值风速是最重要的2个致灾指标,固定资本存量是比GDP更重要的指标;通过4种登陆点/路径和2种风雨强度的热带气旋事件的对比,发现评估结果与实际结果较为一致,模型具有较好的适用性。

关键词：热带气旋直接经济损失损失评估机器学习评估指标福建省

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Debris flow and landslide hazard mapping and risk analysis in China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2012年第3期6卷 306-313页

作者： Xilin LIU Chengjun YU Peijun SHI weihua fang School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

这份报纸与 1:6000000 的规模在中国和编译地图估计碎片流动和山崩的危险，危险和风险，基于地理信息系统(GIS ) 技术，危险区域化地图，从 2000 的社会经济的数据。碎片流动和山崩的综合危险等价于碎片流动危险和山崩危险的和。危险被... 详细信息

这份报纸与 1:6000000 的规模在中国和编译地图估计碎片流动和山崩的危险，危险和风险，基于地理信息系统(GIS ) 技术，危险区域化地图，从 2000 的社会经济的数据。碎片流动和山崩的综合危险等价于碎片流动危险和山崩危险的和。危险被雇用一个简化评价模特儿估计。风险被下列公式计算：风险 = 危险 ? 畦摮？

关键词：风险分析山体滑坡泥石流危险性中国制图地理信息系统评估模型

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Analysis of Unsteady Heat Transfer Problems with Complex Geometries Using Isogeometric Boundary Element Method

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2020年第2期62卷 929-962页

作者： weihua fang Zhilin An Tiantang Yu Tinh Quoc Bui Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology Nanjing210012China Department of Engineering Mechanics Hohai UniversityNanjing211100China Institute for Research and Development Duy Tan UniversityDa Nang CityVietnam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology2-12-1-W8-22OokayamaMeguro-kuTokyo 152-8552Japan

Numerical analysis of unsteady heat transfer problems with complex geometries by the isogeometric boundary element method(IGABEM)is presented.The IGABEM possesses many desirable merits and features,for instance,(a)exactly represented arbitrarily complex geometries,and higher-order continuity due to non-uniform rational B-splines(NURBS)shape functions;(b)using NURBS for both field approximation and geometric description;(c)directly utilizing geometry data from computer-aided design(CAD);and(d)only boundary discretization.The formulation of IGABEM for unsteady heat transfer is derived.The domain discretization in terms of IGABEM for unsteady heat transfer is required as that in traditional BEM.The internal values however are obtained with the analytical formula according to the values on the boundaries,and its computations are therefore mainly dependent on the discretization of the boundaries.The coordinates of internal control points are obtained with the coordinates of control points on the boundaries using Coons body interpolation method.The developed approach is tested with several numerical examples from simple to complicated geometries.Good agreement is gained with reference solutions derived from either analytical or finite element methods.

关键词： Unsteady heat transfer BEM isogeometric analysis NURBS

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