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Monsoonal oscillation revealed by the upper-troposphere water vapor band brightness temperature

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第17期43卷 1489-1494页

作者： weihong qian qian Ye Yafen Zhu Peking Univ Dept Geophys Beijing 100871 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

The measurements of brightness temperature (BT) from the upper-troposphere water vapor channel 12 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration polar satellites from 1979 through 1995 are used to analyze the interannual variations of the global monsoon strength. Results show that in the interannual time-sclae the BT variability in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) is out of phase with the BT variabilities in other four regions, i.e. South Asia, tropical south American, two subtropical areas in the South and North Pacific. The BT interannual variation mode may be called monsoonal oscillation (MO). The MO is the result of the atmospheric circulation anomaly in the troposphere.

关键词： monsoonal oscillation brightness temperature interannual variability.

Interannual and interdecadal variabilities in SST anomaly over the eastern equatorial Pacific

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第6期44卷 568-571页

作者： weihong qian Yafen Zhu qian Ye Peking Univ Dept Geophys Beijing 100871 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

Abstract The global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data from 1950 to 1996 were used to analyze spatial characters of interdecadal SST variations. A wavelet transform was made for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST anomaly time series. Results show that there are three remarkable timescale SST variations. 130-month interdecadal variation, 57-month interannual variation and 28-month quasi2-a variation. Based on this result, an El Nio event was predicted in the early part of 1997.

关键词： SST anomaly interannual variation interdecadal variation prediction.

Southern　Oscillation　forced　by　heat　source　and　topography

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1998年第1期17卷 41-52页

作者： weihong, qian Xintian, You Department of Geophysics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Beijing Meteorological College Beijing 100081 China

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ＳｏｕｔｈｅｒｎＯｓｃｉｌｌａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｃｅｄｂｙｈｅａｔｓｏｕｒｃｅａｎｄｔｏｐｏｇｒａｐｈｙＱｉａｎＷｅｉｈｏｎｇ，ＹｏｕＸｉｎｔｉａｎ（ＲｅｃｅｉｖｅｄＪｕｎｅ５，１９９６，ａｃｃｅｐｔｅｄＤｅｃｅｍｂｅｒ９，１９９６）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ──...

关键词： heat source Southern and forced Oscillation

Changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions in response to interannual and interdecadal temperature variability

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第3期56卷 319-324页

作者： qian weihong LU Bo LIANG HaoYuan Monsoon and Environment Research Group School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

Relationships on interannual and interdecadal timescales among global mean air temperature,CO2 concentrations and fossil-fuel carbon emissions in four major developed countries (the United States,the United Kingdom,France,and Germany) were *** an interannual timescale,the United States fossil-fuel carbon emissions tend to increase during cold winters and decrease during warm winters,which is opposite to the situation in *** an interdecadal timescale,cold (warm) periods both in the United States and globally agree with high (low) periods of fossil-fuel carbon emissions,with the temperature variability leading by 5–7 *** leading correlation on the interdecadal timescale and the asymmetry in seasonal correlation on the interannual timescale indicate that temperature variability is a possible cause of changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions.

关键词：年际时间尺度碳排放量化石燃料年代际温度变率反应全球平均气温

Reconstructed index of summer monsoon dry-wet modes in East Asia for the last millennium

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第28期56卷 3019-3027页

作者： qian weihong ZHU YaFen TANG ShuaiQi Monsoon and Environment Research Group School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang's six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.

关键词：夏季季风干湿指数东亚中国北方地区月降水量中国模式重构中国东部地区

How would global-mean temperature change in the 21st century?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第19期55卷 1963-1967页

作者： qian weihong LU Bo ZHU CongWen Monsoon and Environment Research Group School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The time series of HadCRUT3 global-mean surface air temperature(GSAT) anomaly,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index,and the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) were utilized,and their long-term trends and multiple time-scale periodic oscillations were explored in this study.A long-term trend with a warming rate about 0.44°C /century during 1850-2008,two cool floors occurred respectively around 1910 and during 1950-1970,and three warm flats happened in the 1870s,1940s and since the year 1998 were found in the *** this duration,the variability of GSAT can be well reconstructed by the quasi-21-year,the quasi-65-year,and century-scale *** recent decadal warm flat is caused by their positive phase overlapping from these three *** maximum rising temperature reached 0.26°C was simulated in 2004 by the three *** quasi-21-year and the quasi-65-year oscillations were possibly caused by solar radiation and internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere ***,an outlook of GSAT for the 21st century was made based on the long-term trend and these three *** was expected that a cool floor and a warm flat of the GSAT would appear in the 2030s and 2060s,***,the highest warming range is predicted about 0.6°C,it is less than the threshold 2°C and IPCC projection.

关键词：平均温度太平洋年代际振荡大气系统气温上升赤道太平洋多时间尺度时间序列海表温度

Regional relationship between the Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第1期54卷 113-119页

作者： qian weihong ZHU Jiang WANG YongGuang FU JiaoLan Department of Atmospheric Science Peking University Beijing100871 China National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China

The Jiang-Huai Meiyu rainy season can be distinguished into the Jiangnan Meiyu spell and the Huaihe Meiyu spell. The Jiangnan Meiyu spell appears on the last ten days in June and the Huaihe Meiyu spell lasts from early July to middle July. An inter-decadal transition was observed in 1998 respectively from the anomalies of Jiangnan Meiyu rainfall,the sea surface temperature (SST),and the subsurface tem-perature in the equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21st century,opposite trends and biennial oscillations of the Meiyu rainfall are observed in the Jiangnan and Huaihe basins. Before the strong La Nia of 1999―2000,the positive SST anomalies usually occurred in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21st century,a precursory warming signal of SST anomaly comes from the subsurface temperature which is centrally exposed near the dateline in the central equatorial Pacific. The above-normal Meiyu rainfall in 2003,2005 and 2007 over the Huaihe basin followed the prior winter-spring positive SST anomaly near the dateline. A relationship shows that the more Jiangnan (Huaihe) Meiyu follows the winter-spring warm water in the eastern (central) equatorial Pacific.

关键词：长江流域淮河流域梅雨季节赤道温度

Applying Anomaly-based Weather Analysis to the Prediction of Low Visibility Associated with the Coastal Fog at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in East China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第10期36卷 1060-1077页

作者： weihong qian Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Youli CHEN Siyuan HUANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Ningbo Meteorological Observatory Ningbo 315012 China Ningbo Meteorological Network and Equipment Support Center Ningbo 315012 China Laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen Meteorological Bureau Xiamen 361013 China

Low visibility episodes (visibility < 1000 m) were studied by applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method. A regional episode of low visibility associated with a coastal fog that occurred from 27 to 28 January 2016 over Ningbo- Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang Province, East China, was first examined. Some basic features from the anomalous weather analysis for this case were identified:(1) the process of low visibility mainly caused by coastal fog was a direct response to anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, with a warm center around the 925 hPa level, which was formed by a positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in the upper troposphere and a negative GPH anomaly near the surface;(2) the positive humidity anomaly was conducive to the formation of coastal fog and rain;(3) regional coastal fog formed at the moment when the southwesterly wind anomalies transferred to northeasterly wind anomalies. Other cases confirmed that the low visibility associated with coastal fog depends upon low-level inversion, a positive humidity anomaly, and a change of wind anomalies from southwesterly to northeasterly, rain and stratus cloud amount. The correlation coefficients of six-hourly inversion, 850?925-hPa-averaged temperature, GPH and humidity anomalies against visibility are ?0.31, 0.40 and ?0.48, respectively, reaching the 99% confidence level in the first half-years of 2015 and 2016. By applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method to medium-range model output products, such as ensemble prediction systems, the anomalous temperature?pressure pattern and humidity?wind pattern can be used to predict the process of low visibility associated with coastal fog at several days in advance.

关键词： traditional synoptic analysis anomaly-based weather analysis low visibility coastal fog

Strengthened Regulation of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon by the Northwest Indian Ocean Warming in the Past Decade

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第6期39卷 943-952页

作者： Yang AI Ning JIANG weihong qian Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Yanying CHEN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW)and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Traditionally,a delayed(early)onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)has been observed to follow a warm(cold)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event in winter,supporting high seasonal predictability of SCSSM ***,the empirical seasonal forecasting skill of the SCSSM onset,solely based on ENSO,has deteriorated since ***,unexpected delayed onsets of the SCSSM have also occurred in the past *** attribute these changes to the Northwest Indian Ocean(NWIO)warming of the sea *** NWIO warming has teleconnections related to(1)suppressing the seasonal convection over the South China Sea,which weakens the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delays the start of SCSSM,and(2)favoring more high-frequency,propagating moist convective activities,which enhances the uncertainty of the seasonal prediction of SCSSM onset *** results yield insight into the predictability of the SCSSM onset under the context of uneven ocean warming operating within the larger-scale background state of global climate change.

关键词： Indian Ocean South China Sea summer monsoon monsoon onset ENSO