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Impacts of Land Process on the Onset and Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第6期28卷 1301-1317页

作者： Song YANG 温敏 Rongqian YANG wayne higgins 张人禾 NOAA ＇s Climate Prediction Center Camp Springs Maryland 20746 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 NOAA＇s Environmental Modeling Center Camp Springs Maryland 20746

Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State University （OSU） land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory （Noah） land model, were used to get parallel experiments NCEP/Department of Energy （DOE） Global Reanalysis 2 System （GLDAS）. The experiments also used land ICs from the （GR2） and the Global Land Data Assimilation Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model＇s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in E1 Nifio years, compared to La Nifia years model in monsoon predictions for individual years. and the Noah model performed better than the OSU These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon NCEP Climate Forecast System land models land initial conditions

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Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第3期27卷 88-103页

作者： Song YANG WEN Min R wayne higgins NOAA＇s Climate Prediction Center Camp Springs Maryland 20746 USA Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The operational climate forecast system （CFS） of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predictions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizontal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of monsoon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic timescale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encounters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-tointerannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequency variability of the Asian monsoon.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon onset evolution synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability NCEP climate prediction system

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原发性硬化性胆管炎:MR胆胰管成像诊断作用的Meta分析

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国际医学放射学杂志 2010年第5期 481-481页

作者： M.Dave B.J.Elmunzer B.A.Dwamena P.D.R.higgins 卞读军 Department of Internal Medicine Wayne State University Department of Internal Medicine Wayne State University

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