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Preliminary Study on Probabilistic prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years

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Earthquake Research in china 1995年第4期9卷 10-17页

作者： gao Mengtan and wang Jianinstitute of geophysics,ssb,beijing 100081,china

Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year *** by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be *** consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s *** the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in china,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North china is used to discuss the application of the *** method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 *** to

关键词： probability model medium-term prediction

Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering analysis

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2024年第6期79卷 5017-5030页

作者： Jing gao Mingxuan Ji Hongjiang wang Zhongxiao Du School of Electric Power Shenyang Institute of EngineeringShenyang100083China

With the continuous advancement of china’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is *** the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is *** algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM ***,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training ***,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction *** the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power *** examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration *** accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.

关键词： Short-term wind power prediction deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine incremental learning error clustering

EST-derived microsatellites in P seudosciaena crocea and their applicability to related species

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2010年第6期29卷 83-91页

作者： YE Hua wang xiaoqing gao Tianxiang wang Zhiyong College of Animal Science and Technology Hunan Agricultural University Changsha 410128 China Key Laboratory of Science and Technology for Aquaculture and Food Safety Fisheries College/Fisheries Biotechnology Institute Jimei University Xiamen 361021 China Key Laboratory of Mariculture Ministry of Education Ocean University of China Qingdao 266003 China

Simple sequence repeat （SSR） markers were obtained for the large yellow croaker Pseudosciaena crocea using 1 205 expressed sequences tags （ESTs） from the NCBI *** for 48 ESTSSR loci were designed and screened with 30 *** specimens captured from Guanjingyang sea area in Fujian Province of *** of the loci were polymorphic,which were amplified with 3 to 11 alleles per locus and the mean of *** observed and expected heterozygosity per locus ranged from 0.091 to 0.844 （mean 0.544） and from 0.118 to 0.892 （mean 0.644）,*** information content （PIC） ranged from 0.115 to 0.866 （mean 0.593）.The results for cross-species amplification of the 16 large yellow croaker EST-SSRs on ***,***,***,*** and *** revealed that 14,12,11,7 and 6 loci were successfully amplified with 1 to 10 alleles with an average of 4.5 per locus,respectively,which are suitable for population genetics studies of these species and useful for phylogenetic relationship analysis among these ***,this study provides a set of type I markers for population genetics studies and genome mapping for large yellow croaker and its closely related species.

关键词： Pseudosciaena crocea EST-SSRs genetic diversity cross-species amplification

Influence of interannual variability of Antarctic oscillation on mei-yu along the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley and its importance to prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第S2期48卷 61-67页

作者： gao Hui~(1,2), XUE Feng~1 wang Huijun~1 1. institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044. china Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Nanjing Inst Meteorol Dept Atmospher Sci Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China

Both correlation analysis and case study indi-cate that Antarctic oscillation (AAO) is closely related withsummer rainfall in eastern china. When AAO is stronger inboreal spring, especially in May, there is more mei-yu rain-fall in summer with a longer period along the Yangtze andHuaihe River valley. In contrast, there is less rainfall with ashorter period corresponding to a weaker AAO. Besides, ananomalous AAO changes the position and intensity of severalcirculation systems, which are important to summer rainfallalong the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley. Furthermore, theAntarctic sea ice is negatively correlated with the intensity ofAAO with a 6-month leading time. The result in this studyprovides a new method for the prediction of mei-yu.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation interannual variability mei-yu Antarctic sea ice.

Proteomic Stratification of Prognosis and Treatment Options for Small Cell Lung Cancer

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Genomics, Proteomics & Bioinformatics 2024年第2期22卷 81-92页

作者： Zitian Huo Yaqi Duan Dongdong Zhan Xizhen Xu Nairen Zheng Jing Cai Ruifang Sun Jianping wang Fang Cheng Zhan gao Caixia Xu Wanlin Liu Yuting Dong Sailong Ma Qian Zhang Yiyun Zheng Liping Lou Dong Kuang Qian Chu Jun Qin Guoping wang Yi wang institute of Pathology Tongji HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430030China Department of Pathology School of Basic MedicineTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430030China National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases Tongji HosptialTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430030China beijing Pineal Diagnostics Co. Ltd.Beijing 102206China Department of Oncology Tongji HospitalTongji Medical CollegeHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430030China State Key Laboratory of Proteomics Beijing Proteome Research CenterNational Center for Protein Sciences(Beijing)Beijing Institute of LifeomicsBeijing 102206China Institution of Pathology The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan UniversityKaifeng 475001China Department of Tumor Biobank Shanxi Cancer HospitalTaiyuan 030013China Chongqing Key Laboratory of Big Data for Bio Intelligence School of BioinformationChongqing University of Posts and TelecommunicationsChongqing 400065China

Small cell lung cancer(SCLC)is a highly malignant and heterogeneous cancer with limited therapeutic options and prognosis prediction ***,we analyzed formalin-fixed,paraffin-embedded(FFPE)samples of surgical resections by proteomic profiling,and stratified SCLC into three proteomic subtypes(S-I,S-II,and S-III)with distinct clinical outcomes and chemotherapy *** proteomic subtyping was an independent prognostic factor and performed better than current tumor–node–metastasis or Veterans Administration Lung Study Group staging *** subtyping results could be further validated using FFPE biopsy samples from an independent cohort,extending the analysis to both surgical and biopsy *** signatures of the S-II subtype in particular suggested potential benefits from *** overexpressed proteins in S-III,the worst prognostic subtype,allowed us to nominate potential therapeutic targets,indicating that patient selection may bring new hope for previously failed clinical ***,analysis of an independent cohort of SCLC patients who had received immunotherapy validated the prediction that the S-II patients had better progression-free survival and overall survival after first-line ***,our study provides the rationale for future clinical investigations to validate the current findings for more accurate prognosis prediction and precise treatments.

关键词： Small cell lung cancer Proteomics Prognosis Chemotherapy response Immunotherapy

DNA methylation clocks for estimating biological age in Chinese cohorts

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Protein & Cell 2024年第8期15卷 575-593页

作者： Zikai Zheng Jiaming Li Tianzi Liu Yanling Fan Qiao-Cheng Zhai Muzhao Xiong Qiao-Ran wang Xiaoyan Sun Qi-Wen Zheng Shanshan Che Beier jiang Quan Zheng Cui wang Lixiao Liu Jiale Ping Si wang Dan-Dan gao Jinlin Ye Kuan Yang Yuesheng Zuo Shuai Ma Yun-GuiYang Jig Qu Feng Zhang Peilin Jia Guang-Hui Liu Weiqi Zhang CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine Beijing Institute of GenomicsChinese Academy of Sciences and China National Center for BioinformationBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CAS Key Laboratory of Computational Biology Shanghai Institute of Nutrition and HealthChinese Academy of SciencesShanghai 200031China Division of Orthopaedics Quzhou Affliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical UniversityQuzhou 324000China The Joint Innovation Center for Engineering in Medicine Quzhou Affliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical UniversityQuzhou 324000China Advanced Innovation Center for Human Brain Protection and National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric DisordersXuanwu Hospital Capital Medical UniversityBeijing 100053China Aging Translational Medicine Center International Center for Aging and CancerXuanwu HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100053China Aging Biomarker Consortium Beijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Membrane Biology Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Organ Regeneration and Reconstruction Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China nstitute for Stem Cell and Regeneration Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China beijing institute for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine Beijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Stem Cell and Reproductive Biology Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China National Genomics Data Center Beijing Institute of GenomicsChinese Academy of Sciences and China National Center for BioinformationBeijing 100101China

Epigenetic clocks are accurate predictors of human chronological age based on the analysis of DNA methylation(DNAm)at specific CpG ***,a systematic comparison between DNA methylation data and other omics datasets has not yet been ***,available DNAm age predictors are based on datasets with limited ethnic *** address these knowledge gaps,we generated and analyzed DNA methylation datasets from two independent Chinese cohorts,revealing age-related DNAm ***,a DNA methylation aging clock(iCAS-DNAmAge)and a group of DNAm-based multi-modal clocks for Chinese individuals were developed,with most of them demonstrating strong predictive capabilities for chronological *** clocks were further employed to predict factors influencing aging *** DNAm aging clock,derived from multi-modal aging features(compositeAge-DNAmAge),exhibited a close association with multi-omics changes,lifestyles,and disease status,underscoring its robust potential for precise biological age *** findings offer novel insights into the regulatory mechanism of age-related DNAm changes and extend the application of the DNAm clock for measuring biological age and aging pace,providing the basis for evaluating aging intervention strategies.

关键词： DNA methylation aging clock aging age prediction

煤矿巷道断层滑移型冲击地压试验系统研制与试验验证

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煤炭学报 2024年第9期49卷 3701-3710页

作者：康红普高富强王晓卿柏建彪王琦章冲王襄禹杨磊娄金福李延辉王学宁原贵阳中煤科工开采研究院有限公司北京100013 煤炭科学研究总院开采研究分院北京100013 煤炭智能开采与岩层控制全国重点实验室北京100013 中国矿业大学矿业工程学院江苏徐州221116 山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心山东济南250061

断层滑移型冲击地压是煤矿冲击地压的主要类型,目前对其发生全过程缺乏系统研究,其机理与防控仍是根本难题。为实现断层滑移型冲击地压的试验模拟,研制了煤矿巷道断层滑移型冲击地压试验系统,开发了低强高脆相似模拟材料,制备了包含断... 详细信息

断层滑移型冲击地压是煤矿冲击地压的主要类型,目前对其发生全过程缺乏系统研究,其机理与防控仍是根本难题。为实现断层滑移型冲击地压的试验模拟,研制了煤矿巷道断层滑移型冲击地压试验系统,开发了低强高脆相似模拟材料,制备了包含断层与巷道的大尺寸相似模型,开展了一系列验证试验,实现了巷道冲击破坏模拟与断层剪切滑移模拟。煤矿巷道断层滑移型冲击地压试验系统具备三向六面加载功能,竖向加载能力为20 MPa,模型尺寸为1.50 m×0.75 m×0.75 m;主体框架创新采用键板连接,确保了主体框架的高刚度;发明了蜂窝加载壳结构,实现了密集油缸群加载,能够满足断层滑移型冲击地压试验模拟的要求。开发了适用于断层滑移型冲击地压模拟的相似材料,材料以水玻璃为胶结物、以氟硅酸钠为固化剂、以滑石粉为骨料,单轴抗压强度介于3.44~7.81 MPa,冲击能指数为9.2,弹性能指数为8.83,兼具低强高脆特性。基于试验系统和低强高脆材料实现了静载巷道冲击破坏模拟,验证了低强高脆相似材料模拟巷道冲击破坏的可行性,获得了巷道极限平衡状态的加载条件,巷道帮部连续片落为巷道冲击破坏的显著前兆特征。实现了粗糙锯齿断层的剪切滑移模拟,证实粗糙断层剪切滑移会对巷道形成动载扰动,获得了断层剪切滑移的合理加载方式,采用动区顶部先加载、底部后卸载的方式能够实现断层的瞬间滑移,并能消除对静区应力状态的影响。

关键词：断层滑移型冲击地压试验系统低强高脆相似材料物理模拟巷道冲击破坏

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多层砂岩油藏油井层间干扰机理解析及讨论

石油科学通报 2024年第2期9卷 338-345页

作者：耿站立王守磊谢晓庆郑焱高亚军宋宣毅海洋石油高效开发国家重点实验室北京100028 中海油研究总院有限责任公司北京100027

多层砂岩油藏开发过程中普遍存在层间干扰现象,众多学者从不同角度开展了层间干扰机理、规律及应对策略研究,但层间干扰机理的认识程度多数停留在层间干扰系数宏观规律统计及对矿场应用的经验指导层面,有必要开展深入的定量化解析及讨... 详细信息

多层砂岩油藏开发过程中普遍存在层间干扰现象,众多学者从不同角度开展了层间干扰机理、规律及应对策略研究,但层间干扰机理的认识程度多数停留在层间干扰系数宏观规律统计及对矿场应用的经验指导层面,有必要开展深入的定量化解析及讨论。本文首先从矿场油井层间干扰测试资料分析入手,确定了层间干扰研究的突破点,然后采用油藏数值模拟方法模拟了考虑启动压力梯度影响的油井产能测试过程,厘清了油井层间干扰规律,并综合诸多因素分析揭示了多层砂岩油藏层间干扰机理;最后深化了储层纵向非均质性认识,并探讨了油藏非均质性表征研究思路,为提高多层砂岩油藏油井产能预测精度、制定更加精细的开发对策提供理论、技术指导。

关键词：多层砂岩油藏产能测试层间干扰启动压力梯度储层非均质性

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天然次生白桦单木冠幅预测模型研究

西南林业大学学报（自然科学） 2024年第5期44卷 129-135页

作者：高畅王帆黑龙江省林业和草原调查规划设计院绥化院黑龙江绥化152000 东北林业大学林学院黑龙江哈尔滨150040

以黑龙江省哈尔滨市依兰县丹清河实验林场30块天然次生白桦林样地的1844棵白桦为研究对象,从常用的10个冠幅基础预测模型中选择白桦的最优模型,通过分析单木因子与冠幅的相关性对模型进行再参数化,引入样地水平的随机效应构建天然次生... 详细信息

以黑龙江省哈尔滨市依兰县丹清河实验林场30块天然次生白桦林样地的1844棵白桦为研究对象,从常用的10个冠幅基础预测模型中选择白桦的最优模型,通过分析单木因子与冠幅的相关性对模型进行再参数化,引入样地水平的随机效应构建天然次生白桦冠幅的混合效应模型。结果表明:Logistic模型最适宜描述白桦的冠幅变化,引入枝下高、高径比和树冠率可以改进模型的预测精度。引入样地水平的随机效应改善了数据的异方差问题,再次提高了冠幅的预测精度。因此,建议在实际生产中采用非线性混合效应模型对天然次生白桦的冠幅进行预测,从而提高冠幅预测的准确率,为合理经营天然次生白桦提供更加科学有效的理论支持。

关键词：天然次生林白桦冠幅模型混合效应模型